The Strait Is Open, Oil Is Back to $70, and the Inflation Story Just Changed

The Strait Is Open, Oil Is Back to $70, and the Inflation Story Just Changed

The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Oil is back to $70 — erasing the entire war premium. May's inflation print came in hot, but bond investors already looked through it as yields fell. The thesis Matt has been holding since late February is essentially complete. Matt and Garrett close that chapter this week — clearly, honestly, and with the context that the timeline was messier than expected but the destination was always right. They also break down semiconductor volatility and what it tells you about concentrated trades, and why the diversified investor's week looked nothing like the S&P 500 headline. Remote episode — tighter than usual, but the content earned its own episode. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.

Oil Crashed, the Fed Changed Its Language, and the Biggest IPO in History Just Happened

Oil fell 13% on a ceasefire framework announcement. Kevin Warsh held his first Fed press conference and signaled the end of the dot plot era. SpaceX completed the largest IPO in recorded history. And this morning, the ceasefire framework was paused as Israel continued bombing Lebanon and Iran disputed the terms. Matt and Garrett recorded this episode in real time — covering the week honestly, including the complication that arrived before the mics went on. The Fed conversation is the centerpiece: what just changed, why the bond market's signal matters more than the hawkish headline, and why Matt's Greenspan comparison from months ago just got confirmed. In the Planning Room: how to think about IPOs — and the dollar cost averaging approach Matt and Garrett actually use with clients who want exposure to newly public companies. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.

Your Portfolio Is Down. Here's Exactly What To Do — And What Not To.

Two bumpy weeks to start June, inflation at a three-year high, and a Fed meeting next week that could set the direction for the rest of 2026. Matt and Garrett dig into what's actually happening beneath the headlines — including why the pullback is narrower than it looks and why the inflation number is more nuanced than the headline suggests. The Planning Room this week is one of the most practical conversations they've had: what to actually do when your portfolio drops. The behavioral trap, the framework for deciding whether to act, and the one productive move worth making. Don't miss next week either — Warsh's first Fed press conference. Full breakdown coming. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.

The Market Hit Records Again. So Why Doesn't Your Portfolio Feel Like It?

The S&P 500 returned 5.3% in May. Strip out technology and the rest of the index was slightly negative. The equal-weight version of the same 500 companies returned 2% to 3%. The gap between the headline number and what most portfolios actually experienced was one of the widest in recent memory — and it tells you something important about the rally we're in. Matt and Garrett get into what's driving it, what it means for investors, and whether the strength you're seeing in the headlines is as broad as it looks. Plus the strongest earnings season since 2021, a consumer warning sign worth paying attention to, and the honest bull and bear cases for June. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.

Is Stagflation Coming — And Should You Refinance Before Yields Move Again?

Nine consecutive weeks of gains and all-time highs across the board — but GDP was revised down to 1.6% and PCE inflation hit a three-year high on the same morning. The word stagflation showed up. Matt and Garrett take it seriously without catastrophizing it. Matt's thesis that oil drives the inflation story got some vindication this week as yields reversed lower alongside falling oil prices. Garrett acknowledges it while keeping the honest caveat in place: the ceasefire is still contested. In the Planning Room: yields just fell and mortgage rates moved with them. Here's the actual math framework for deciding whether to refinance — and why this moment might be worth a conversation with your lender. Good Returns is for educational purposes only and is not individual financial, tax, or legal advice. Momentum Wealth is a registered investment advisor.