Back to the Future: Tariffs and the Return of Old Ideas

Priced For Perfection

The U.S. stock market is priced for perfection. Gold and the S&P 500 have reached all-time highs. Interest rates are likely to be cut this month, the employment picture looks to be weakening and tariff policy remains in flux. In this episode of The Native Angelino Podcast, I am joined by Adam Phillips, CFA of EP Wealth Advisors. We discuss equities, interest rates, gold, bitcoin, alternative investments and the current political climates impact on the Federal Reserve. Will an interest rate cut stimulate the housing market? What about in cities like Los Angeles where residential real estate prices far exceed national averages? Adam oversees portfolio strategy for his firm and provides insights on the current economic climate and outlook for the coming quarters. Chapters 00:00 Intro - Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty 00:20 The Taco Trade 01:30 Tariffs and Their Economic Impact 04:30 Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Dynamics 07:09 Gold's Rise and Market Sentiment 09:45 EP Wealth Advisors 12:00 Real Estate and Client Portfolios 14:10 Interest Rates and Consumer Behavior 16:13 Market Valuations and Economic Disparities 17:36 Government Intervention and Market Dynamics 21:32 Digital Assets and Bitcoin's Role 27:00 Alternative Investments and Market Trends 33:05 Current Economic Focus and Fed Independence Summary - Priced For Perfection In this conversation, Adam Phillips and Tom Levine discuss various economic factors affecting the market, including interest rates, Federal Reserve policies, tariff policy, gold as a safe haven, real estate investment strategies, and the impact of digital assets. They explore the current state of the economy, the challenges posed by inflation, and the implications of government intervention in the market. The discussion also highlights the differences in investment perspectives between older and younger generations, as well as the importance of financial planning in navigating these uncertain times. Takeaways Market volatility is influenced by economic uncertainty and government policies. Interest rates are a critical factor in shaping market dynamics and investor behavior. Gold is viewed as a safe haven amidst geopolitical risks and inflation concerns. Real estate remains a significant asset for many clients, especially in high-value areas. Alternative investments are gaining traction as a means to diversify portfolios. Lower interest rates could stimulate housing demand but may not significantly impact high-net-worth clients. Market valuations are currently high, raising concerns about potential downside risks. Government intervention in markets raises questions about the future of economic stability. Digital assets like Bitcoin are becoming more mainstream but remain highly speculative. Younger investors are more open to alternative investments compared to older generations. 🎧 Subscribe to the Native Angelino Podcast: https://bit.ly/Subscribe-NativeAngelino [https://bit.ly/Subscribe-NativeAngelino] Conversations with strategists, technicians, and culture shapers.Smart insight from a Native Angelino perspective. Adam Phillips, CFA®, CAIA, CFP® Adam is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®), a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®), and has been included on the Forbes NextGen Best-in-State Wealth Advisors 2019 list. He is a member of the CFA Society of Los Angeles and the CFA Institute. Adam helps establish asset allocation strategy as a member of the EP Wealth Investment Committee, which supports all EP Wealth Advisors and their clients. He is a graduate of USC and earned his MBA at UCLA. About Tom Levine Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Native Angelino Real Estate, [https://nativeangelino.com] established 2017, for residential, commercial and investment related transactions. Additionally, he is a broker and certified Short Sale and Forclosure specialist under the National Association of Realtors. (CADRE 02052698) L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes. Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino. ANALYSIS BY Tom Levine [https://nativeangelino.com/tom-levine/] | Native Angelino Real Estate [https://nativeangelino.com/] | Los Angeles 25+ years in capital markets. USC Marshall School of Business. Claremont Colleges. London School of Economics. California real estate broker since 2017. Writing on commission compression, brokerage economics, and market structure since 2022. Before Sitzer Burnett. Before Compass Anywhere. Before the portal wars reached their current scale. The analysis here is independent. No portal agreements. No platform incentives.Native Angelino with Tom Levine [https://www.1929.live/] | YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@nativeangelinorealestate] INDEPENDENT. FOUNDER LED. CLIENT FOCUSED. WE KNOW LOS ANGELES Native Angelino Real Estate does not participate in portal incentive structures. No Compass alliance. No Zillow preferred agent program. No internal matching incentives. No debt service obligations that require volume at the expense of judgment. The only alignment here is with the client. Tom Levine | Broker | CADRE 02052698Los Angeles | Beverly Hills, CA 90209(213) 915 6161 | LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomjlevine/] Schedule a Consultation [https://calendly.com/zero-hour-group/call-with-tom-levine] Neither the author, nor Native Angelino is a registered investment advisor, legal, tax professional or broker / dealer. All investment/ financial opinions expressed here are from the personal research, experience, and opinions of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur. Do your Own Research please. Our content is for informational purposes only. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live [https://www.1929.live?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Back to the Future: Tariffs and the Return of Old Ideas

🎙️ Guest: Peter McNally, CFA🎧 Episode Title: The Return of Industrial Risk🗓️ Published: [Insert Date]📍 Topics: Tariffs, Trade Policy, Supply Chains, Energy Markets, CapEx, Nuclear, AI Infrastructure 🔹 Episode Summary In this conversation, Tom Levine speaks with Peter McNally, CFA of Third Bridge about how the return of tariffs, the hesitancy around long-term capital investment, and the future of energy are reshaping the economy. McNally explains why many so-called reshoring announcements may just be “window dressing,” how cheap natural gas, as much as, policy—displaced coal, and why nuclear innovation may take longer than public timelines admit. From AI-driven energy demand to restarting Three Mile Island, this episode looks at what happens when old industrial tools become relevant again. 🧠 Highlights Why companies are absorbing tariffs in the short-run instead of rewiring supply chains The silent CapEx pause — and what it means for markets LNG, shale, and the fracking technologies that changed U.S. energy Small Modular Reactors and the limits of nuclear scale-up AI data centers, power shortages, and the real energy bottleneck “We’re all going to have to be students again.” 🔗 Resources & Mentions Guest: Peter McNally – Third Bridge Reference: Cheniere Energy (LNG) Topics: SMRs, Trade Policy, Data Center Buildouts 📬 Subscribe for More Smart conversations about policy, power, and real capital in Los Angeles and beyond.🎧 Full archive: https://www.1929.live [https://www.1929.live] ---- 00:00 Economic Impact of Tariffs 02:20 Long-term Capital Expenditure Trends 04:48 The Role of Third Bridge in Market Analysis 07:36 Tariffs and Global Trade Perspectives 10:14 The Future of Railroads and Shipping 12:34 Consolidation in the Rail Industry 15:14 The Intersection of Rail and Trucking 17:35 Airlines and Economic Resilience 24:28 Post-COVID Travel Demand Surge 25:45 Energy Sector Innovations and LNG Success 27:19 Technological Advances in Energy Production 30:14 Natural Gas: The Future of Energy 30:58 Data Centers and Energy Demand 34:08 Nuclear Energy: Challenges and Opportunities 38:55 Investing in Energy: The Case for Natural Gas 43:33 Market Overview: Corporate Earnings and Valuations 48:47 Wealth Disparity and Consumer Health 50:44 Native Angelino Podcast This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live [https://www.1929.live?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Charting the Markets with Katie Stockton, CMT | July 2025

In this episode, Tom Levine asks Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies how she uses technical analysis—price charts, support and resistance levels, and momentum signals—to interpret market behavior. The summer of 2025 has brought new stock market highs even in the face of tariffs, potential trade wars, shooting wars, a declining dollar and continued volatility across asset classes. Katie Stockton, CMT is a nationally recognized expert in technical analysis and the founder of Fairlead Strategies, an independent research firm. Her approach helps investors and advisors navigate complex markets through structure, not speculation. Katie’s work encompasses all major sectors of the stock market, the bond market, gold, and bitcoin/crypto — with a disciplined, chart-driven method grounded in technical indicators and trend analysis. This conversation was recorded in July 2025 as part of the Native Angelino Podcast with Tom Levine and is the third in the series with Katie. Links to the archived episodes are in the show notes. About Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. She is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK), launched in 2022. Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. She served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners, and worked with teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview. Katie holds the distinction of being the youngest female to have attained the Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation in 2001. She has served as Vice President of the CMT Association and currently sits on the board of Cary Street Partners. As an official CNBC contributor, she regularly shares market perspectives and is often quoted in Barron’s and MarketWatch. —🎧 Subscribe to the Native Angelino Podcast: https://bit.ly/Subscribe-NativeAngelino [https://bit.ly/Subscribe-NativeAngelino] Conversations with strategists, technicians, and culture shapers.Smart insight from a Native Angelino perspective. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live [https://www.1929.live?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

American Real Estate Of The Union

One year ago, Jason Haber organized a petition [https://www.change.org/p/demand-the-immediate-resignation-of-kenny-parcell-president-of-n-a-r] seeking the resignation of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) President Kenny Parcell. Within days, the executive was gone, and Haber's life had changed forever. The petition's momentum, albeit rapid and fierce, can not compare to the tectonic shifts already in motion in the real estate industry. For years, multiple clusters of fanged lawsuits have worked their way through the justice system.   Sitzer-Burnett vs NAR The NAR and co-defendants lost a major battle and faced a monster penalty that stoked the fear of bankruptcy with a dagger looming close to their not-so-not-for-profit hearts. The recent implementation of a DOJ and court-guided settlement (proposed) of the Sitzer-Burnett (and related) cases has changed and upended the staid and foggy practices of running a real estate business, ushering in a new era promising transparency and accountability. If the Department of Justice stays quiet (unlikely) and the Court approves the recently implemented practice changes and settlement of the Sitzer-Burnett cases, the real estate industry may be on track to compete and operate ethically in the modern era. These practice changes [https://www.1929.live/p/the-strategic-impact-sitzer-burnett-settlement] will undoubtedly require numerous iterations to perfect and reshape tired traditions embedded in U.S. real estate businesses. Whether or not the legacy trade association and old-line business models can adjust is to be determined. American Real Estate Association Jason Haber [https://jasonhaber.com] and Mauricio Umansky, CEO/Founder of the Agency, announced in January the formation of a new trade organization, the American Real Estate Association [https://therealdeal.com/national/2024/01/23/nar-alternative-by-umansky-haber-takes-shape/], which is billed as "built by agents, for agents." The American Real Estate Association has the potential to become a significant alternative to the NAR. With a focus on modern tools and methods, it aims to avoid the bloat and rust of its elder industry mate. Jason Haber Is Not Afraid During this discussion, Haber was direct, clear, and personable, holding nothing back while describing the failings of real estate agents, brokers, brokerages and the national trade organization. His commitment to improvement, good trouble, and forward momentum inspires confidence and a desire to get involved. The winds of generational change apply not only to politics but also to the business of residential real estate. Author’s Note Haber declined to comment when asked if the plaid shirt worn during this interview is a nod to the current election cycle and the Vice-Presidential candidate. American Real Estate Association | NYTimes [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/23/realestate/american-real-estate-association-nar.html] Haber Rattling - Agent Comes For The NAR | The Real Deal [https://therealdeal.com/national/2024/02/09/jason-haber-comes-for-nar/] Et Tu, Agent? Commission-Based Steering in Residential Real Estate [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4596391] Publications and Podcasts by Tom Levine Real Estate Consultant vs Real Estate Agent [https://www.1929.live/p/real-estate-agent-vs-real-estate-consultant?r=1b0gvc] Will The Realtor Settlement Be Approved [https://www.1929.live/p/will-the-nar-settlement-be-approved] The Strategic Impact of the Sitzer-Burnett Settlement on Real Estate Practices [https://www.1929.live/p/the-strategic-impact-sitzer-burnett-settlement] Real Estate Tokenization - Part 1 [https://www.1929.live/p/real-estate-tokenization-part-1] Stock Market Highs and Real Estate Risk [https://www.1929.live/p/real-estate-wall-street-technical-analysis] About The Author And Podcast Host Tom Levine, leveraging a 25-year tenure in capital markets, leads Zero Hour Group [https://zerohour.la/] and Native Angelino Real Estate [https://nativeangelino.com/], offering a suite of consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services. An alumnus of USC Marshall School of Business and the Claremont Colleges - Pitzer College [https://www.pitzer.edu] campus with a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he holds a CADRE broker's license and the designation certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors. CA DRE #02052698 Schedule A Free Consultation I consult on a range of transaction types and deal structures, I would be pleased to have a discussion. Schedule a call here. [https://calendly.com/zero-hour-group/call-with-tom-levine] Tom Levine, Real Estate Broker and Consultant [https://zerohour.la/] Have a challenging transaction? Let's discuss.  This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live [https://www.1929.live?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Pia Mia - Renaissance Woman for A New Generation

Pia Mia - Social Media Savvy Buinessperson Approaching a staggering 1 Billion YouTube views, 780 million TikTok views, 10 million Instagram followers, 2.5 million monthly Spotify listeners with a 77% conversion rate, Pia Mia's reach is undeniable.  Big numbers for the woman from Guam who came to LA as a 13-year-old girl. Her music and creativity resonate with millions. Since arriving in California, she has collaborated on a multi-platinum record, acted in feature films, developed a branding entity and, within the last two weeks, released her first book. Episode Notes 00:15 - Introduction 01:15 - Book Release 02:15 - From Guam to Hollywood via Urth Cafe 07:00- A Drake Cover, Kanye and Dinner 15:55 - Publishing vs Music Industry 19:00 - SAND, Sequins, and Silicone - a reading 22:00 - Anna Todd, After, Wattpadd 23:00 - Branding and Social Media 25:50 - Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/artist/1BhWF9W2PngtPSyobKg0rP] engagement, TikTok, Instragram Live and YouTube 31:05 - A Multi-Platinum Story 35:30 - Helpful Business Tips From Pia Mia Sand, Sequins & Silicone Released May 14, 2024 by publisher Frayed Pages x Wattpad Books. Available at https://www.amazon.com/Sand-Sequins-Silicone-Pia-Mia/dp/1998854760/Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other major retailers. Mentioned in the Episode Madonna Names Pia Mia as Material Girl’s Fashion Director Pia Mia Went Viral Covering Drake [https://www.vice.com/en/article/rgp8n3/pia-mia-interview-2015] Wattpad [https://www.wattpad.com/] - The world's largest storytelling community Anna Todd [https://annatodd.com/] (writer/producer/influencer) is the New York Times best-selling author Babyface [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babyface_(musician)] J Boog [https://www.jboogmusic.net] Renaissance woman - noun - a woman who has acquired profound knowledge or proficiency in more than one field. About The Author And Podcast Host Tom Levine, leveraging a 25-year tenure in capital markets, leads Zero Hour Group and Native Angelino Real Estate, offering a suite of consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services. An alumnus of USC Marshall School of Business and the Claremont Colleges - Pitzer College [https://www.pitzer.edu] campus with a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he holds a CADRE broker's license (#02052698) and the designation certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors. Have a challenging transaction? Let's discuss.  I consult on a range of transaction types and deal structures. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live [https://www.1929.live?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]