Ep 13 — Iran, Lebanon, and the China Squeeze | Bassel Doueik (ACLED)

Ep 13 — Iran, Lebanon, and the China Squeeze | Bassel Doueik (ACLED)

Episode 13 of the +OneMedia Podcast. I sit down with Bassel Doueik — Middle East analyst at ACLED — for a chronological walkthrough of the most consequential 15 weeks of US foreign policy in a generation. Venezuela, Iran, the assassination of Khamenei, Operation Eternal Darkness in Beirut, the first direct Lebanon-Israel talks in 30+ years, and how the Trump administration is squeezing China before the mid-May summit. Two Lebanese voices. One timeline and Lebanon at the center of every file. 👉 CHAPTERS BELOW Chapters 00:00 Understanding the Role of ACLED in Middle Eastern Politics 05:03 Operation Absolute Resolve: Geopolitical Implications 11:01 The American Military as the World's Police 15:40 Iran and the Impact of Khamenei's Assassination 24:00 Negotiations and the Future of Lebanon 34:35 Tensions in Lebanon: Hezbollah and the Government 37:53 The Cycle of Conflict: Ceasefires and Violations 40:47 Hezbollah's Strategic Errors: The Syrian War's Impact 43:56 Political Dynamics: Hezbollah's Control and Lebanese Sovereignty 45:01 Negotiating with Adversaries: The Dilemma of Peace Talks 49:20 Economic Incentives: Disarming Hezbollah through Aid 53:24 The Role of the Lebanese Army: Challenges and Limitations 55:18 Blame and Responsibility: Hezbollah and Lebanese Politics 58:15 Future of Lebanon-Israel Relations: A Different Path to Peace 01:05:58 Geopolitical Tensions: Israel, Turkey, and the Risk of War 01:06:49 The Future of NATO and U.S. Involvement 01:09:53 Russia's Role in Global Conflicts 01:12:08 Impact of Regional Conflicts on Tourism 01:13:37 Trump's Influence on U.S. Foreign Policy 01:19:34 Understanding Lebanese Politics 01:27:49 The Current State of Lebanon and Future Prospects --- 🎧 Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts ▶ Full archive: plusonemedia.transistor.fm/episodes Guest: Bassel Doueik, Middle East Analyst, ACLED Twitter/X: @bassel_doueik LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/bassel-doueik/ Host: Jean Tawil - +OneMedia Instagram: @tawiljean X: @Jean_Tawil_ LinkedIn Company: linkedin.com/company/plusonemedias --- About +OneMedia: +OneMedia is a bilingual geopolitical media brand covering how US foreign policy shapes the Middle East — and vice versa. Breaking news, analysis, explainers. English and Arabic. Brand line: US foreign policy meets the Middle East. --- #Lebanon #MiddleEast #Hezbollah #Iran #USForeignPolicy #Venezuela #Geopolitics #Khamenei #Beirut #AbrahamAccords #StratOfHormuz #ACLED #PlusOneMedia

Lebanon’s Army, Hezbollah’s State Power, and the New Map of the Region With General Marwan Issa

For non-Arabic speakers: This conversation is conducted in Arabic. If you don’t understand Arabic, I’ve published an extensive English summary on my LinkedIn that explains the full discussion, context, and key takeaways in detail. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lebanons-army-hezbollahs-state-power-new-map-region-general-4qf1e Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tawiljean/ X: https://x.com/Jean_Tawil_ plusonemedia.transistor.fm | | | In this in-depth conversation, me and General Marwan Issa explore the realities shaping Lebanon’s security, politics, and geopolitical position. General Issa explains how the Lebanese Army’s military doctrine is directly constrained by political decisions, why the army cannot act independently of the government, and how this limits any unilateral action against Hezbollah. The discussion covers Lebanon’s border security challenges, counterterrorism operations against ISIS, and the behind-the-scenes realities of military coordination along the Syrian frontier. General Issa also details Lebanon’s extensive military cooperation with the United States, NATO, and European partners, stressing that these relationships are interest-based and essential to the army’s survival. A central focus is Hezbollah’s dual military and political role. General Issa explains why Hezbollah cannot be treated as an external armed group under Lebanese law, how the 2008 Doha Agreement granted it formal political legitimacy, and why disarmament is impossible without a broader regional decision involving Iran. The conversation expands beyond Lebanon to examine Iran’s strategic calculus, U.S. policy toward Lebanon, and why Washington maintains one of its largest embassies in Beirut. We also discuss the Caucasus, the Zangezur Corridor, Turkey’s role, and how global energy routes and great-power competition indirectly shape Lebanon’s future. General Issa concludes with a blunt assessment: Lebanon’s crisis is structural. Without political reform, an independent judiciary, decentralization, and an end to sectarian paralysis, Lebanon will remain trapped between internal fragmentation and regional power struggles. This episode offers a rare, grounded perspective on why Lebanon is stuck and what would need to change for it to move forward.

From Nasrallah to Nationhood: Lebanon’s Future and Regional Fault Lines: With Adnan Nasser

In this conversation, Adnan Nasser shares his insights on Lebanon's complex political landscape, the impact of Hassan Nasrallah's assassination, and the broader regional dynamics affecting the Middle East. He emphasizes the importance of independent research in understanding news and politics, discusses the challenges of living in a traumatized country, and reflects on the need for social cohesion and stability in Lebanon. The dialogue also touches on international relations, particularly the role of the U.S. and Gulf countries in shaping Lebanon's future, and concludes with thoughts on the cultural differences between the U.S. and Europe.

Trump’s Wildest Claims—Are They All Tied to a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?

In this video, I delve into the concept of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) and their implications for the U.S. economy, particularly in the context of Donald Trump's policies. Thevideo covers the current economic state of the U.S., the potential benefits and risks associated with establishing a SWF, and the strategic moves that could be made to fund it, including tariffs and asset liquidation. I emphasizes the importance of oversight in managing such funds to prevent misuse and corruption. Takeaways America is currently $36 trillion in debt. The U.S. spends $2 trillion more than it can pay. The value of U.S. assets is estimated at $5.7 trillion. Sovereign Wealth Funds can be beneficial but also risky. Malaysia's experience with SWF highlights potential for corruption. Tariffs could be a way to fund a U.S. SWF. Investments from foreign companies are crucial for U.S. economy. Congressional approval is necessary for SWF implementation. Oversight committees may be established for SWF management. Natural resources in Canada and Greenland are seen as valuable assets. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Sovereign Wealth Funds 02:54 Understanding America's Economic Landscape 04:09 Options for Establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund 06:14 The Role of Tariffs and Investments 08:02 Implications of Sovereign Wealth Funds on National Assets

Grassroots vs. Clientelism: Lebanon’s Political Tug-of-War: With Gino Raidy

In this conversation, Gino breaks down Lebanon’s political landscape, highlighting the role of social media, sectarianism, and governance challenges. He emphasizes the need for better leadership at the local level, particularly through municipalities, to address community needs. The conversation also explores how the Shia community is responding to political changes and how external powers influence Lebanon’s governance. He discusses the power of grassroots movements in fostering accountability and the difficulties posed by clientelism. Gino stresses the importance of trust-building and local strategies for political change. The discussion also covers the evolving landscape of political activism, explaining why activists today have more opportunities than before. He highlights the growing influence of media—especially social media—on elections and public opinion. Gino underscores the role of youth in shaping politics, the importance of political awareness, and how literature can help people better understand Lebanon’s complex political system. He encourages individuals to stay engaged and recognize the impact of their choices.