#16: Predictions - The Havana Hazard

#27: How Bolsonaro Misread Brazil in 2022

Discussed: * Big Brother Brasil has a winner. * Will Flávio’s bad tweets [https://x.com/FlavioBolsonaro/status/2007444794994278541?s=20] get him disqualified from the race? * Glenn Greenwald’s takes on the Supreme Court. * Romeu Zema becomes the muppets [https://x.com/RomeuZema/status/2046363177974108308?s=20] latest showrunner. * The impossible politics of pardons Jan 8 and attempted coup plot. * The Path to the Planalto #01 - read it now. [https://podgecaste.substack.com/p/the-path-to-the-planalto-01] * How Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election. * Lula’s 45% trap becomes a safe haven. * The curse of viralatismo for right-wing politicians in Brazil. * “Lula in 2022 was closer to Trump in 2016 than Bolsonaro in 2018.” * The misread of imposing American polarization onto Brazil. * Does Flávio have a Trump card in 2026? * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com [https://podgecaste.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

#26: Why Nobody Can Truly Win Brazil

Discussed: * It’s Brazilian election boy summer! * Lula’s looksmaxxing must be stopped. * “Why are you running, bro?” [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uwhqe1qm4QE] * Geraldo Alckmin returns for Lula’s Veep Season 4. * Move over saudades. Sapatênis is the new untranslatable word. * Disinformation is just bad politics for the right. * A long LARP as Flávio Bolsonaro on the debate stage. * “Please sir, I just need one more go around the merry-go-round.” * Hunger is going, going, gone, back, and gone again. * Lula-EU vs. Flávio-Trump. Which way Centrist Dad voter? * Brazil’s Grumbleocracy gives little chance to a Bukele, or even a Milei. * Were the 2016 protests a CIA color revolution? * “To interfere, or not to interfere. That is the question.” * Brazilian politicians as the cast of Arrested Development. [https://substack.com/@podgecaste/note/c-237244757?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=4g1gmj] * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com [https://podgecaste.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

#16: Predictions - The Havana Hazard

Discussed: * Note to self: never get distracted by Iran. * A quick phone-in from an expert on the history and geography — which is an island, in case you didn’t know. * Latin American despots were looksmaxxing before it was cool. * “If they do anything to Cuba, I’m gonna be really, really mad.” * Is Flávio Bolsonaro a low-energy [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/afslUe6Rwxs] candidate? * What we’re seeing in the polls is a consolidation. Nothing more; nothing less. * Lula is polling better than some of us would like to think. * Deep State vs. Deep State Lite. * How The Big Short has poisoned an entire generation of analysts. * Some thoughts on VP Geraldo Alckmin. * Will Mario win Lula the youth vote? * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com [https://podgecaste.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

BONUS: Irate on Iran

In attempt our to not talk about the events of the past 48 hours, we couldn’t help ourselves by starting a carefully thought out episode on the Brazilian election by discussing that which should not be named. Anyway, here’s our deeply uninformed take on the most complex geopolitical issue of our time. Link to video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hZJwQlM_L0] we mention in the episode. This snippet was taken from the recording of our main episode, which will be dropping in the coming days. To hear that, and our other takes on politics, predictions, and Brazil, make sure you’re subscribed to podgecaste.substack.com [http://podgecaste.substack.com]. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com [https://podgecaste.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

#15: Predictions - Will Lula Drop Out?

Discussed: * Jack’s latest article, Like Our Parents (Como Nossos Pais). Read it now. [https://podgecaste.substack.com/p/like-our-parents] * Will Gen Z shift towards Flávio in 2026? * University or Multi-Level Marketing. The choice is yours. * Thoughts on Lula’s tribute at Sapucaí. * ‘Carnaval’s just like football, innit.” * No one is safe from the North Korean news reader meme. * Quaaaaaest - It’s Highly Addictive! * “How weird! You’re weird!” * A case for Tucker Carlson’s rhetorical style. * Is Lula risking a Bidenification of his legacy? * Find me the votes! * Is anyone going to win over the independents in 2026? * The Communist Party of Brazil vs. the Brazilian Communist Party. Hint: only one is communist. * The Generals have been summoned to Lula’s Eastern Front. * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com [https://podgecaste.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]