13. China's Renewables and the 2035 System Bet

13. China's Renewables and the 2035 System Bet

In 2024, China spent close to 940 billion dollars on clean energy — nearly matching what the entire world spent on fossil fuels that same year — and has now installed more than 1.8 terawatts of wind and solar capacity. This episode traces the policy loop that built that scale, from the 2005 Renewable Energy Law through the manufacturing dominance phase, to the 15th Five-Year Plan's pivot toward system integration: transmission corridors, market-based pricing, and storage. Buried in the plan's technical annexes is an implied 2035 target of over 3.6 terawatts of wind and solar and roughly 4,700 gigawatts of total non-fossil capacity — effectively doubling current levels within a decade. The episode examines three risks that could push that arc off course: transmission and storage lagging capacity growth, subsidy-transition friction including price cannibalization in the merchant power market, and coal retrofit economics proving stickier than planned. It closes by identifying three markers worth tracking through 2030 — annual capacity additions, transmission corridor progress, and China's export position under global trade friction. REFERENCES Renewable Institute — "China's Clean Energy Boom: 940 Billion of Investments Power a Greener Future." https://www.renewableinstitute.org/chinas-clean-energy-boom-940-billion-of-investments-power-a-greener-future/ [https://www.renewableinstitute.org/chinas-clean-energy-boom-940-billion-of-investments-power-a-greener-future/] World Economic Forum — "China Adding More Renewables to Grid." https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/12/china-adding-more-renewables-to-grid/ [https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/12/china-adding-more-renewables-to-grid/] PV Magazine — "China Five Year Plan Deepens Shift Toward Renewables." https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/03/18/china-five-year-plan-deepens-shift-toward-renewables-system-focus/ [https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/03/18/china-five-year-plan-deepens-shift-toward-renewables-system-focus/] WindTech International — "China's 15th Five Year Plan Sets Direction for Renewables." https://www.windtech-international.com/industry-news/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-sets-direction-for-renewables-expansion-and-wind-growth-to-2030 [https://www.windtech-international.com/industry-news/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-sets-direction-for-renewables-expansion-and-wind-growth-to-2030] Carbon Brief — "What Does China's 15th Five Year Plan Mean for Climate Change." https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-15th-five-year-plan-mean-for-climate-change/ [https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-15th-five-year-plan-mean-for-climate-change/] E3G — "China's 15th Five Year Plan: A Green Transition Anchored in a Globally Oriented Growth Strategy." https://www.e3g.org/news/china-s-15th-five-year-plan-a-green-transition-anchored-in-a-globally-oriented-growth-strategy/ [https://www.e3g.org/news/china-s-15th-five-year-plan-a-green-transition-anchored-in-a-globally-oriented-growth-strategy/] Forbes — "Top 5 Trends to Watch in Chinese Energy During 2026." https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleyhill/2026/01/05/top-5-trends-to-watch-in-chinese-energy-during-2026/ [https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleyhill/2026/01/05/top-5-trends-to-watch-in-chinese-energy-during-2026/] ABC Australia — "China Unveils Five Year Plan for Green Energy Renewables." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-17/china-unveils-five-year-plan-for-green-energy-renewables/106448728 [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-17/china-unveils-five-year-plan-for-green-energy-renewables/106448728] Power Technology — "China Renewable Energy Subsidies." https://www.power-technology.com/news/china-renewable-energy-subsidies/ [https://www.power-technology.com/news/china-renewable-energy-subsidies/] Reuters — "Investors Bet Iran War Will Boost Chinese Renewables Demand." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/investors-bet-iran-war-will-boost-chinese-renewables-demand-2026-03-24/ [https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/investors-bet-iran-war-will-boost-chinese-renewables-demand-2026-03-24/] IISD — "Public Finance for Renewable Energy in China." https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/public_finance_renewable_energy_china.pdf [https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/public_finance_renewable_energy_china.pdf] Climate Cooperation — "China's 15th Five Year Plan Recommendations." https://climatecooperation.cn/climate/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-recommendations-set-out-chinas-energy-and-climate-priorities/ [https://climatecooperation.cn/climate/chinas-15th-five-year-plan-recommendations-set-out-chinas-energy-and-climate-priorities/] People's Daily — China Renewable Energy System Overview. https://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0302/c98389-20430326.html [https://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0302/c98389-20430326.html]

12. A, B, H, N: The Chinese Share Classes Explained

The same Chinese company — ICBC, PetroChina, any major dual-listed name — can trade at materially different prices in Shanghai and Hong Kong on the same day. That A-H premium is not a pricing error. It is a structural feature of how China's equity markets are segmented. This episode explains the four main Chinese share classes — A, B, H, and N — covering where each is listed, who trades it, what kind of companies you find inside it, and how each behaves differently from the others. A companion to our episode on Chinese stock indices. Between the two, you have the map and the terrain. REFERENCES LSEG / FTSE Russell — "Guide to Chinese Share Classes." https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/documents/policy-documents/guide-to-chinese-share-classes.pdf Investopedia — "Differences Between H-Shares and A-Shares." https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/062315/what-are-differences-between-hshares-and-ashares-chinese-and-hong-kong-stock-exchanges.asp Invesco — "China ETF Share Classes Infographic." https://www.invesco.com/content/dam/invesco/emea/en/pdf/China-etf-infographic-EN.pdf Sinorbis — "Understanding the Chinese Stock Market." https://www.sinorbis.com/understanding-the-chinese-stock-market MSCI — "MSCI China Index." https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400 ScienceDirect — "A-Share and B-Share Volatility Study." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1059056003000030 ScienceDirect — "A-H Share Premium Study." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S104402832100017X B2Prime — "H-Shares vs A-Shares: What Are They and How Do They Differ." https://b2prime.com/news/h-shares-vs-a-shares-what-are-they-and-how-do-they-differ Monmouth University — "Valuation Differential Between Class A and B Shares." https://www.monmouth.edu/directory/documents/2018/09/the-valuation-differential-between-class-a-and-b-shares-country-risk-in-the-chinese-stock-market.pdf/ Bogleheads Forum — China A-Share Investor Base Discussion. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=185827 YouTube — H-Shares vs A-Shares Explainer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWSbUfo96_c

11. National Reading Week: China Wants you to Read More and Scroll Less

On April 20, 2026, China launched its first National Reading Week. Official framing positions it as a cultural initiative — books, libraries, literacy — with no mention of smartphones or screens. This episode argues that framing is accurate but incomplete. Reading Week is the positive-reinforcement arm of a broader state effort to recalibrate how Chinese people spend their attention: the same policy environment that includes school phone bans, gaming time limits for minors, and university research on smartphone harm. Three markers to watch: whether reading metrics actually move over successive Reading Week cycles, whether the positive and restriction tracks begin to converge in policy language, and how digital reading is positioned within the framework. #China #ChinaEconomy #ChinaBusiness #GlobalMacro #EmergingMarkets REFERENCES * Xinhua — "China Sets Annual National Reading Week Starting from 2026." https://english.news.cn/20260420/0332d65b87004997aec5d3fa209eee38/c.html [https://english.news.cn/20260420/0332d65b87004997aec5d3fa209eee38/c.html] * Xinhua — "Record Number of Enterprises in Ice and Snow Tourism." https://english.news.cn/20260106/b983b69b049f4873b98f8ce0bac608e5/c.html [https://english.news.cn/20260106/b983b69b049f4873b98f8ce0bac608e5/c.html] * China SCIO — "First National Reading Week and 5th National Conference on Reading." http://english.scio.gov.cn/topnews/2026-04/21/content_118449063.html [http://english.scio.gov.cn/topnews/2026-04/21/content_118449063.html] * Bastille Post — "China Sets Annual National Reading Week." https://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/5305195-china-sets-annual-national-reading-week-starting-from-2026 [https://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/5305195-china-sets-annual-national-reading-week-starting-from-2026] * China Daily — "National Reading Promotion Regulations in Force February 2026." https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/20/WS69e64707a310d6866eb447d0.html [https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/20/WS69e64707a310d6866eb447d0.html] * China Daily HK — "China Library Infrastructure: 3,248 Public Libraries by End 2024." https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/626634 [https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/626634] * Global China Daily — "China Reading Week Activities." http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/20/WS69e5e828a310d6866eb44708.html [http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/20/WS69e5e828a310d6866eb44708.html]China.org — "Nationwide Reading Part of 15th Five-Year Plan." http://www.china.org.cn/2026-04/20/content_118447717.shtml [http://www.china.org.cn/2026-04/20/content_118447717.shtml]People's Daily — "More Than Gold: China's Ice and Snow Sports Boom." https://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0420/c90000-20448289.html [https://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0420/c90000-20448289.html] * Global Times — "China's Silver Economy Upgrade Fuels Rapid Rise of Elderly-Friendly Toys." https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202602/1355101.shtml [https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202602/1355101.shtml]

10. DeepSeek and China's AI Moment

In January 2025, DeepSeek R1 — a reasoning model from a Chinese quant hedge fund spin-off — topped global app store charts, rattled US tech stocks, and was immediately labelled China's "AI Sputnik moment." This episode interrogates that framing from both sides. The steel-man of the sceptical case is genuine: DeepSeek trained on American chips, the six-million-dollar cost figure is a single training run, and open-weight release is not a market position. But the counter-narrative — that export controls are holding and the gap is intact — is also insufficient. DeepSeek's Mixture-of-Experts architecture emerged in part from hardware constraint, and may be more durable under future compute restriction than the brute-force approach it competed against. Three markers to watch: whether the efficiency advantage holds across model generations, the hardware trajectory as Chinese labs respond to chip restrictions, and whether the hedge-fund-backed research-first organisational model gets replicated. REFERENCES * Wikipedia — "DeepSeek." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek * New York Times — "DeepSeek Owner, China AI." https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/business/deepseek-owner-china-ai.html * Wired — "DeepSeek China Model AI." https://www.wired.com/story/deepseek-china-model-ai/ [https://www.wired.com/story/deepseek-china-model-ai/] * The Guardian — "Who Is Behind DeepSeek and How Did It Achieve Its AI Sputnik Moment." https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/28/who-is-behind-deepseek-and-how-did-it-achieve-its-ai-sputnik-moment/ * BBC — "DeepSeek AI." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv5976z9po * TechCrunch — "DeepSeek Gets Silicon Valley Talking." https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/26/deepseek-gets-silicon-valley-talking/ * CNN — "China DeepSeek AI Success." https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/28/china/china-deepseek-ai-success-tech-intl-hnk * FuseAI Tools — "History of DeepSeek AI." https://www.fuseaitools.com/news/history-of-deepseek-ai * Issarice — "Timeline of DeepSeek." https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_DeepSeek * OurChinaStory — "What's the Story of DeepSeek and Its Founder Liang Wenfeng." https://www.ourchinastory.com/en/14046/What's-the-story-of-DeepSeek-and-its-founder-Liang-Wenfeng

09. BYD: From Battery Maker to World's Largest EV Company

The standard critique of BYD is straightforward: at least 3.7 billion dollars in documented government support, a protected domestic market, and government-steered early customers in bus fleets and taxi programmes. This episode takes that argument seriously — and then shows where it stops being sufficient. By mid-2024, BYD held 23 percent of the global EV market, more than double Tesla's share, across over 100 countries, built on a battery architecture competitors are still trying to replicate. The policy frame has reached its explanatory limit. The pivot point is the Blade Battery: a cell-to-pack design that improves space utilisation by roughly 50 percent, lowers cost per kilowatt-hour, and substantially reduces fire risk. That's the output of 25 years of battery chemistry development — not a subsidy programme. We close with three markers to watch: whether overseas factories in Hungary, Thailand, and Brazil reach genuine production scale; whether Blade technology gets adopted by non-BYD manufacturers; and whether BYD's profitability holds as it moves into markets where brand, software, and after-sales service matter differently than in fleet procurement. REFERENCES * CKGSB Knowledge — "How China's BYD Grew Into an EV Business Giant." https://english.ckgsb.edu.cn/knowledge/professor_analysis/how-china-byd-grew-into-an-ev-business-giant/ [https://english.ckgsb.edu.cn/knowledge/professor_analysis/how-china-byd-grew-into-an-ev-business-giant/] * Drivetech Partners — "BYD and CAR Inc: Powering China's Green Mobility." https://drivetech.partners/360/byd_and_car_inc_powering_chinas_green_mobility [https://drivetech.partners/360/byd_and_car_inc_powering_chinas_green_mobility] * Tridens Technology — "BYD Sales Statistics." https://tridenstechnology.com/byd-sales-statistics/ [https://tridenstechnology.com/byd-sales-statistics/] * Autovista24 — "BYD Enjoys Significant Lead in Global EV Market." https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/byd-enjoys-significant-lead-in-global-ev-market/ [https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/byd-enjoys-significant-lead-in-global-ev-market/] * Electrek — "China Gave BYD an Incredible $3.7 Billion to Win the EV Race." https://electrek.co/2024/04/12/china-gave-byd-an-incredible-3-7-billion-to-win-the-ev-race/ [https://electrek.co/2024/04/12/china-gave-byd-an-incredible-3-7-billion-to-win-the-ev-race/] * Nomad Semi — "BYD Semiconductor Deep Dive." https://www.nomadsemi.com/p/byd-semiconductor-deep-dive [https://www.nomadsemi.com/p/byd-semiconductor-deep-dive] * BYD EU Blog — "BYD's Revolutionary Blade Battery — All You Need to Know." https://www.byd.com/eu/blog/BYDs-revolutionary-Blade-Battery-all-you-need-to-know [https://www.byd.com/eu/blog/BYDs-revolutionary-Blade-Battery-all-you-need-to-know] * BYD Auto Belgium — "Blade Battery." https://www.bydauto.be/en/blade-battery/ [https://www.bydauto.be/en/blade-battery/] * Ufine Battery — "BYD Blade Battery Comprehensive Guide." https://www.ufinebattery.com/blog/byd-blade-battery-comprehensive-guide/ [https://www.ufinebattery.com/blog/byd-blade-battery-comprehensive-guide/] * Atlantic Council — "What China's BYD Really Wants from EV Investments in Mexico." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/what-chinas-byd-really-wants-from-ev-investments-in-mexico/ [https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/what-chinas-byd-really-wants-from-ev-investments-in-mexico/] * Forbes — "Top 5 Trends to Watch in Chinese Energy During 2026." https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleyhill/2026/01/05/top-5-trends-to-watch-in-chinese-energy-during-2026/ [https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleyhill/2026/01/05/top-5-trends-to-watch-in-chinese-energy-during-2026/] * Carbon Credits — "BYD's Billion Dollar Surge: Dominating EV Sales." https://carboncredits.com/byds-billion-dollar-surge-dominating-ev-sales-and-driving-the-green-revolution/ [https://carboncredits.com/byds-billion-dollar-surge-dominating-ev-sales-and-driving-the-green-revolution/]