DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Market Holds Its Breath

MOONSHOTS, OIL DROPS & THE CEASEFIRE CLOCK!!

EPISODE 11 - MOONSHOTS, OIL DROPS & THE CEASEFIRE CLOCK!! WEEK 24 | June 8-14, 2026 Key Takeaways - * US stocks rebounded after last week's chip-led selloff. Friday closes: S&P 500 7,431; Dow 51,202; Nasdaq 25,889. * SpaceX's historic IPO raised about $75 billion and closed roughly 19 percent above its offer price, showing risk appetite is still alive. * May CPI hit 4.2 percent year over year, driven mainly by energy. Core CPI was calmer at 2.9 percent, making oil the key inflation variable. * A reported US-Iran framework could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade, but Iranian hardliners and Israel-Hezbollah tensions keep the deal fragile. * The FIFA World Cup is now a macro event too: tourism, media, sports betting, security, heat risk, and consumer spending all matter. * The June 16-17 Fed meeting is the next major market test, with Kevin Warsh needing to balance hot inflation against hopes that oil pressure may fade.

CHIPS ARE DOWN - When AI Hits a Speed Bump

THE ELEVEN: US Markets, Episode 10 - June 2 to June 6, 2026 🔑 Key Themes & Analysis The AI Repricing: Broadcom beat earnings but held guidance flat, and the market took a trillion dollars off chips in two days. The AI trade isn’t over, but the ‘buy everything with silicon’ era is. Quality AI revenue generators will be rewarded. Narrative-driven names will be punished. Jobs Beat = Rate Hike Risk: May payrolls at 172,000, more than double the 80,000 consensus. With inflation already at 3.8%, a strong jobs print complicates the Fed’s calculus and raises December rate hike odds to roughly 40%. Warsh’s Opening Act: The new Fed Chair steps into his first FOMC meeting June 16-17 with inflation above target, a divided committee, and a market still processing a tech shock. His language at the press conference will set the tone for H2 2026. SpaceX: Event of the Decade: A $75 billion raise at $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in history. Retail gets 30%. Starlink is the engine. The week of June 8 is a market catalyst regardless of broader conditions. Iran -Still Unresolved: The ceasefire holds, but barely. Talks stalled on enrichment, missiles, and the Strait. Every week this drags is another week of elevated energy costs embedded in global inflation.

DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Peace Rally That's Playing Chicken With Inflation

THE ELEVEN: US Markets - Episode 9 | Week 22 | 26-30 May2026 | 'DEAL OR NO DEAL'  The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to nine consecutive weeks, closing May at a record 7,580 while the Dow Jones crossed 51,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq surged 8% in May alone, driven by one of the most consequential AI earnings weeks of 2026.  This episode covers: Dell Technologies' record 33% single-daysurge on AI server revenue growth of 757% year-over-year and a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract. Micron Technology crossing $1 trillion in market cap, up tenfold in 12 months on AI memory chip demand. Snowflake's AI platform inflection point and Palantir's 10% rally on partnership validation.Robinhood's launch of Agentic Trading - AI models executing stock trades on retail investors' behalf. The tentative US-Iran 60-day ceasefire MOU and why Trump's final approval decision this weekend could move oil markets on Monday. Brentcrude's worst monthly performance since Covid, down 19% in May on peace hopes.New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh facing stagflation risk, Fed minutes showing rate-hike discussions, and the critical June 16-17 FOMC meeting. European GDP contraction forecasts, Asian AI export boom, and gold's persistent safe-haven strength above $4,500. Key Themes - Week 22 The Peace Trade vs The Inflation Reality:  Markets are rallying on the prospect of an Iran deal that isn't yet signed. Brent fell19% in May. But oil infrastructure in the Gulf is damaged, mines need clearing, and tanker logistics need rebuilding. Even in a best-case peace scenario, energy prices normalise slowly , the inflation wound from three months of Hormuz closure doesn't heal overnight.  AI Hardware Is No Longer Speculative:  Dell's 757% AI server revenue growth and Micron's trillion-dollar market cap are backed by real orders and sold-out supply chains. The AI buildout is the largest infrastructure expansion in history, per Nvidia's CEO. The risk is not whether the demand is real- it is. The risk is whether equity valuations have already priced in years of future growth.  The Warsh Dilemma:  The new Fed chair wants lowerrates. Trump wants lower rates. But inflation is near 4% - double the Fed's target and the Fed's own meeting minutes show a majority of officials think rate hikes may be needed. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is the most consequential in years. Watch the dot plot.  Agentic Finance Arrives:  Robinhood's launch of AI-poweredtrading and spending tools is a genuine structural shift, not just for Robinhood, but for the entire retail brokerage industry. The regulatory framework for AI-executed trades is still being written. The accountability gap your AI makes the trade, you own the loss is a risk most retail investors haven't fully thought through.

DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Market Holds Its Breath

THE ELEVEN: US Markets | Episode 8 : "DEAL OR NO DEAL - The Market Holds Its Breath"  Key Themes - 1. THE DEAL THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING: Trump announced Saturday that a US-Iran peace deal is 'largely negotiated.' If signed and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases, the Fed gets breathing room, and equities could rally hard. But key sticking points - Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions, and uranium, remain unresolved. Watch Monday morning. 2. THE BOND MARKET IS SCREAMING: The 30-year Treasury yield sat above 5% mid-week, a level last seen in 2007.Moody's just downgraded US debt. Congress just passed a bill adding $3.8 trillion to the deficit. The bond market is sending a clear fiscal warning that equities are choosing to ignore, for now. 3. NVIDIA IS THE AI ECONOMY: $81.6B in Q1 revenue, $91B guided for Q2. The AI infrastructure buildout is the most powerful structural force in markets. But investors must separate companies with real AI revenue from pure narrative plays. Nvidia itself proved this week that even perfection isn't enough to avoid a sell-the-news reaction. 4. EIGHT WEEKS UP- BUT NOT WITHOUT CRACKS: The S&P's 8-week winning streak is impressive but was tested by volatile sessions mid-week. Fear & Greed has flipped toGreed after weeks in Fear. That sentiment turnaround creates vulnerability-complacency is the enemy of portfolio protection.

THE WARSH FACTOR - New Chair, Hot Inflation, and the AI Gold Rush

THE ELEVEN: US Markets: Week 20, May 12-17, 2026 The Warsh Factor: A new Fed chair inheriting 3.8% inflationand an energy shock. Hawkish by instinct but open to cuts if inflation falls. With CPI this hot, that flexibility is theoretical. Watch his first public comments closely. AI Boom vs. Energy Shock: The Cerebras IPO illustrates thebifurcation , AI infrastructure is real and growing fast. But the same economy faces energy-driven inflation that could force rate hikes. These forces are on a collision course. The Stagflation Watch: Real wages now negative. Goldman,Moody's, and OECD all have recession/stagflation probabilities above 30%. The Fed is frozen between high inflation and slowing growth. Trump-Xi: Deferred, Not Resolved: The hardest issues -tariffs, chips, Taiwan, kicked to September and beyond. Uncertainty premium stays in the market until then.