Europe on the Brink: Iran, Macron's Nuclear Stakes & the Fracturing Atlantic Alliance

Dave and Julien LIVE from GLOBSEC Forum 2026

I had the great pleasure to head to Prague this week to take part in the 2026 GLOBSEC Forum, and had the chance to catch up with a friend of the Dispatch, Dave Keating [https://substack.com/profile/55292762-dave-keating] from Gulf Stream Blues [https://open.substack.com/pub/davekeating], for a live video recorded on the sidelines. As you’ll hear in this video, Thursday set the tone for the whole event. A session featuring former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen [https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/organization/who-we-are/nato-secretaries-general/anders-fogh-rasmussen] and former US Defence Secretary Mark Esper [https://www.war.gov/About/Biographies/Biography/Article/1378166/mark-t-esper/] addressed Europe’s new security reality, which is the polite way of saying: what happens when you can no longer assume Washington has your back [https://events.globsec.org/?page=eventDetail&action=sessionDetail&ehash=l2KEn3Ozyb2toqqW2w%3D%3D&sessionId=1243&moduleId=36187&lang=en]. Both men agreed the dependency had gone on too long. Rasmussen pushed for a formalised Coalition of the Willing within NATO; Esper preferred expanding the existing Joint Expeditionary Force rather than risk further fracturing the alliance. They found common ground on Ukraine’s NATO membership, arguing for the German 1955 model, with Article 5 applying only to government-controlled territory. Rasmussen went further, making the case that Europe had thrown away its best leverage during the Iran conflict by immediately declaring it wasn’t its war. What was harder to watch was the broader conference atmosphere around US-EU relations. The official discourse from established politicians was notably managed: resilient partnership, shared values, transatlantic cooperation intact. However, the audience did not seem persuaded, and it appeared that there was a gap between what the podium says and what the people in the seats actually believe, and Prague made that visible. Later that afternoon, I was on stage with French Minister Delegate for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad [https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/the-ministry/ministers/benjamin-haddad], ECFR director Mark Leonard [https://ecfr.eu/profile/mark_leonard/], and others for a panel on whether Europe’s institutions are actually built for the moment they keep claiming to be rising to [https://events.globsec.org/?page=eventDetail&action=sessionDetail&ehash=l2KEn3Ozyb2toqqW2w%3D%3D&sessionId=1249&moduleId=36187&lang=en]. That conversation was rather less diplomatic. Haddad made the case for optimism, but tied it to delivery on the single market and the upcoming Multi-annual Financial Framework. Others on the panel were less patient: the argument that Europe has spent years being passive where it needed to act and hyperactive where it needed to restrain itself landed with some force. The question of whether Brussels can reform fast enough to matter before the moment passes did not receive a comfortable answer. Get full access to The French Dispatch at www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe [https://www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Europe refuses Trumps war in Iran and the Hormuz Straight

So, ladies and gentlemen, Donald Trump’s war on Iran is continue to splutter, with America having failed to remove the Iranian regime, inflaming tensions across the Middle East, and actively creating a scenario that is sending oil and gas prices skyrocketing. Not only this, but Donald Trump has managed to create a situation where he is now pushing to remove sanctions on Russia, and is actively berating European leaders for refusing his petulant demand for a third Gulf War. So I sat down with Dave Keating [https://substack.com/profile/55292762-dave-keating] from Gulf Stream Blues [https://open.substack.com/pub/davekeating] so that we could chat about France’s role in leading the European rejections of Trumps demands, how the Europeans are all positioning themselves ahead of the upcoming Council summit, and what we can expect. We also talk about Macron’s strategic pivot as he reaches the end of his presidency, what we can expect from America, and why Donald Trump has genuinely pushed his so-called allies too far. Let us know what you think, and forgive our being sabotaged by the Substack Team [https://substack.com/profile/41856304-substack-team]’s recording studio, which has wrought untold havoc on our geopolitical opinions and caused a small delay in the audio. And if you want to check out my previous discussion following the opening salvo of the American-Iranian war, check out my video with Annelise Riles [https://substack.com/profile/194666446-annelise-riles] from Everyday Ambassador [https://open.substack.com/pub/anneliseriles] Get full access to The French Dispatch at www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe [https://www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Europe on the Brink: Iran, Macron's Nuclear Stakes & the Fracturing Atlantic Alliance

So, as you may all have heard, the world is on fire right now, with Donald Trump having launched a war against the Iranian regime and Europeans having a messy and divided response to the intensifying crisis. Not only this, but French President Emmanuel Macron launched himself into an expansive review of the French nuclear doctrine, calling for an increase in the number of nuclear warheads, and an expansion of the French umbrella towards our European allies. Which is why I’m pleased that I finally got the chance to sit down with Professor Annelise Riles [https://open.substack.com/users/194666446-annelise-riles?utm_source=mentions] from Everyday Ambassador [https://anneliseriles.substack.com/] to break down exactly why this major situation is such a grave moment in modern history, what we’ve seen thus far, and where exactly we expect this to all go. Let us know what you think, and whether you’d like to see more conversations between us, and if you like what you heard from Annelise, give her substack a follow, she does excellent work and is well deserving of your time. Get full access to The French Dispatch at www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe [https://www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Did the EU sell out Ukraine? EUCO recap live

So, another European Council meeting has come along and caused a massive uproar, so what better time to run a Substack live to discuss the topic and go through the finer points of the meeting’s agenda.From Middle East diplomacy to European Security, to finally touching upon the topic of supporting Ukraine’s defensive war against a revanchist, imperialist Russia, we go through everything that happened in this discussion and what it means for Europe. Get full access to The French Dispatch at www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe [https://www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Quick reaction to Zack Polanski’s Putin naïveté

So, Zack Polanski, the leader of the British Green Party and prospective British Prime Minister, has declared that he will try to do what no one else has done before him: convince Russian President Vladimir Putin, known for his imperialism and revanchist foreign policy, to give up his Nuclear Weapons. Which is definitely not going to happen, so in the face of a lot of the reactions and questions I’ve had to this situation, here’s a quick reaction. As I mentioned in the video, please let me know what you think about this situation and if there’s a topic you’d like me to explore. Get full access to The French Dispatch at www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe [https://www.frenchdispatch.eu/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]