Animal Spirits vs. The Seasonal Rotation Calendar | Brooke Thackray

Animal Spirits vs. The Seasonal Rotation Calendar | Brooke Thackray

The seasonal clock is ticking — and if history is any guide, the market's most dangerous months are still ahead. In this episode of Insight Is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Brooke Thackray, Research Analyst at Global X and author of the long-running Thackray Newsletter, for a wide-ranging conversation about what the seasonal calendar is telling us right now — and why the market's gravity-defying melt-up may be masking a set of risks that most investors aren't pricing in. From the FOMO-fuelled rally that erased April's war-driven selloff, to the eerie parallels between today's AI trade and the late-1990s internet bubble, Brooke and Pierre explore the architecture of the current market: who's driving it, what's being ignored, and where the seasonal patterns are pointing for the second half of 2026. The conversation covers the narrowing breadth behind the S&P 500's new highs, the invisible commodity bottlenecks quietly threatening semiconductor production, and the emerging rotation opportunities in gold, Canadian banks, and resource sectors that few investors are discussing. Whether you're managing a portfolio, planning for retirement, or simply trying to make sense of a market that seems to shrug off every risk, this episode offers a grounded, historically-informed perspective on what comes next — and when. Episode Chapters 0:00 — Introduction: Markets don't move in straight lines, but they do move in patterns 1:45 — SpaceX IPO day, the AI narrative, and the anatomy of a melt-up 4:30 — How seasonal patterns set up April's explosive rally — and what was missed 6:00 — The invisible supply shock: helium, tungsten hexafluoride, and semiconductor risk 8:00 — Sell in May didn't work — why FOMO overrides seasonality in the short term 10:00 — Ten stocks driving the index: what market narrowness really signals 13:00 — Tracking money flows: how to tell if investors are rotating or leaving entirely 15:00 — The fragility of a narrow market and what historically breaks melt-ups 21:00 — Cisco, Nortel, and One Cent Cisco: the late-90s earnings playbook and its modern echo 24:00 — Utilities, nuclear, data center buildout, and the Gartner hype cycle applied to AI 32:00 — The dead zone: August–September as the two weakest months on the seasonal calendar 33:00 — Semiconductors, South Korea, NVIDIA earnings, and what could flip the trade 38:00 — Supply chain lessons from COVID: why shortages don't heal with a flick of a switch 41:00 — Uranium, silver, copper: the commodity super-cycle quietly building beneath the AI wave 45:00 — Gold, Canadian banks, and healthcare: where seasonal inflection points are setting up now 50:00 — Why gold doesn't trade on geopolitical risk — and what it actually trades on 53:00 — The Fed's stealth QE, Kevin Warsh's debut, stagflation risk, and the M2 expansion 57:00 — Canadian banks: why foreign investors are buying what domestic investors are ignoring 1:01:00 — HAC ETF: how the Global X Seasonal Rotation Fund puts these principles to work #SeasonalInvesting #StockMarket2026 #BrookeThackray #GlobalXETFs #HACETF #MarketSeasonality #InvestingStrategy #GoldOutlook #Semiconductors #AIStocks #NVIDIA #SpaceXIPO #CommoditySuperCycle #UraniumStocks #SilverDemand #CopperShortage #CanadianBanks #RetirementInvesting #SequenceOfReturnRisk #MarketBreadth #FOMORally #SellInMay #FedPolicy #Stagflation #InsightIsCapital #AdvisorAnalyst #ETFInvesting #WealthManagement #InvestmentPodcast #FinancePodcast

David Varadi: The Early Years of Retirement Are The Most Dangerous

Every retiree gets exactly one shot at one sequence of returns — and the first five years can quietly cost you more than half your lifetime portfolio. In this episode of Insight is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with David Varadi, MBA, CFA, instructor of Personal Finance and Investments at the Schulich School of Business at York University, to unpack one of the most underestimated risks in retirement planning: sequence of returns risk. Drawing on a career that spans RBC, Macquarie, Flexible Plan Investments, QuantX, and now academia, Varadi introduces the concept of the "sequence tax" — the measurable gap between what the market returns and what a retiree actually realizes after withdrawals. He explains why poor returns in the first five to ten years of retirement can permanently impair a portfolio in ways that bull markets later cannot repair, and walks through practical levers advisors can use to defend against it, including bond ladders, dynamic withdrawal cuts, trend-following overlays, and diversification beyond the traditional 60/40 mix. The conversation moves into the four economic regimes, why long-duration treasuries, energy, utilities, and managed futures each play a distinct hedging role, and how capital efficiency — using leveraged or portable-alpha structures to free up liquidity — can help underfunded clients diversify into annuities, tontines, and real assets without taking on a purely speculative, all-equity gamble. Varadi closes with a call for advisors to calculate every client's required rate of return and shortfall risk, rather than relying on risk tolerance alone, to determine whether a retirement plan is actually safe versus merely comfortable. Timestamped Chapters 00:00 — Introduction: the sequence tax and why order matters more than average return 02:00 — David Varadi's career arc: RBC, Macquarie, Flexible Plan, QuantX, and teaching at Schulich 06:00 — Why decumulation is the industry's biggest blind spot and top advisor anxiety 08:00 — What sequence of returns risk actually is and how the "sequence tax" is calculated 10:00 — Selling shares in a down market: cannibalizing the portfolio and the math of recovery 13:00 — The first five and ten years: 53% and 80% of lifetime sequence damage explained 14:00 — Levers for protection: liquidity buffers, cutting withdrawals, trend following, bond ladders 16:00 — The trade-offs of holding bonds early in retirement 24:00 — Replacing traditional fixed income with convexity: managed futures and the four market regimes 26:00 — Best hedges for long-duration bonds: energy, utilities, and commodities 28:00 — Real assets and inflation protection: pipelines, infrastructure, and rate-linked cash flows 30:00 — Managed futures as a "utility player" across market regimes 32:00 — Capital efficiency for underfunded clients: solving multiple risks with the same dollar 35:00 — X-raying the 60/40 portfolio: why it behaves like 90% equity risk 38:00 — The danger of mistaking the need for diversification as a need for more risk 48:00 — Building the floor: bonds, annuities, and tontines for funded versus underfunded clients 54:00 — Practical capital-efficiency examples: leveraged ETFs, covered calls, and portable alpha 1:01:00 — Calculating the retirement required rate of return and the conservative-client mismatch 1:02:00 — Shortfall risk versus standard deviation: optimizing for retirement survival 1:04:00 — Closing thoughts and a look ahead to capital efficiency in depth #SequenceOfReturnsRisk #RetirementPlanning #DecumulationStrategy #RetirementIncome #FinancialAdvisor #PersonalFinance #PortfolioConstruction #CapitalEfficiency #ManagedFutures #RetirementSavings #WealthManagement #InvestingForRetirement #FinancialPlanning #InsightIsCapital #SchulichSchoolOfBusiness #RetirementRiskManagement #AssetAllocation #FixedIncomeStrategy #AnnuitiesVsTontines #FinanceEducation

The ETF Terrordome: Why 1 in 3 New Funds Will Never Survive

If you think launching an ETF sounds like a great business, Eric Balchunas is here to explain why it might be the most brutal competitive arena in finance — and which products are actually winning in 2026. Pierre Daillie sits down with Eric Balchunas — Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, co-host of the Trillions podcast, and author of The Bogle Effect — for an unflinching tour of the ETF Terrordome. Eric maps the structural forces that make ETF success so elusive: Vanguard and BlackRock together capturing 60% of all flows, over 2,000 funds trapped below the $50M zombie line, and a liquidation rate that could hit one-in-three. He unpacks his three C's of ETF survival (Cheap, Creative, or Cabernet), breaks down why legacy active managers finally found their footing by lowering fees, and explains the DRAM phenomenon — a memory chip ETF that reached $15 billion in 60 days by solving a real access problem. The conversation moves into Eric's 26 for '26 ETFs to Watch list, covering uranium mining, auto callable ETFs, laddered buffer strategies, and the growing derivative income space. Balchunas also shares his thesis on why the "Vanguard bid" and government backstops have fundamentally changed how markets absorb sell-offs — and why Bogle may be the most underrated behavioral economist in investing history. ⏱ CHAPTERS 00:00 — Introduction: Welcome to the Terrordome 03:30 — What the Terrordome actually means: fees, distribution, and the Vanguard effect 06:30 — BlackRock vs. Vanguard: the fee war that reshaped an industry 08:00 — The three C's of ETF success: Cheap, Creative, or Cabernet 10:00 — The $100M threshold: zombies, middle class, and breakout hits 13:00 — Active managers finally get it right (Capital Group, JP Morgan, DFA, Avantis) 15:00 — DRAM: the $15B ETF that came out of nowhere 17:00 — BlackRock & Vanguard as the new IBM for advisors 21:00 — Why advisors choose index over active: the blame problem 25:00 — 26 for '26: Eric's ETF Watch List highlights (URNM, CAIE, buffer ETFs) 28:00 — Auto callables, covered calls, and the derivative income boom 31:00 — Mag Seven concentration: Bessembinder, antitrust, and the hoovering of small caps 36:00 — Managed futures, portable alpha, and return stacking 39:00 — The Vanguard bid: why sell-offs don't cascade anymore 41:00 — The Bogle Effect: Jack Bogle as the father of good investor behavior 43:00 — Where to find Eric: Trillions podcast, ETF IQ on Bloomberg TV, X & LinkedIn #ETF #ETFs2026 #EricBalchunas #BloombergIntelligence #ETFInvesting #PassiveInvesting #ActiveETF #Vanguard #BlackRock #IndexFunds #ETFIndustry #Terrordome #TheBogleEffect #CoveredCallETF #BufferETF #AutoCallable #ManagedFutures #PortableAlpha #UraniumETF #DRAM #Trillions #InsightIsCapital #WealthManagement #AdvisorInvesting #InvestmentStrategy #FinancePodcast

She Watches Billions in ETF Flows Every Day. What's Going On Behind the Screens?

The desk at RBC Capital Markets that sits behind 90% of Canada's ETF market has a view of where flows are really going — and it's not what most advisors expect. Pierre Daillie sits down with Valerie Grimba, Head of Global ETF Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, for a wide-ranging conversation about the forces quietly reshaping how Canadian advisors build portfolios. Valerie's team serves as designated broker to roughly 300 ETF mandates and acts as authorized participant across the majority of the Canadian ETF market — giving her a real-time, flow-level view of investor behaviour that almost nobody else has. From the structural fracture that 2022 opened in the 60/40 model, to the liquidity misconceptions her desk corrects every single day, to the explosive rise of asset allocation ETFs, covered call strategies, AAA CLOs, and precision thematic plays, this conversation covers the full terrain of where the ETF market stands today — and where it is heading. CHAPTERS 00:00 — Introduction: The 60/40 failure and Canada's ETF rebuild 02:11 — Valerie's career arc: Bear Stearns, New York, New Zealand, RBC 04:21 — How the RBC ETF market making desk actually works 05:36 — What a designated broker does — and why it matters 08:18 — Flash crashes, Liberation Day, and ETFs as a release valve 10:08 — The RBC market view: yellow flags, narrow breadth, and a 12–18 month outlook 13:29 — How ETF flows changed: from net outflows in risk-off to rotation 14:05 — Gold: zero correlation, the incongruent timing, and the 2026 outlook 15:40 — Higher for longer: what advisors are missing about the rate environment 17:46 — How 2022 changed advisor behaviour and launched a new ETF ecosystem 21:49 — Covered call ETFs: what advisors are still getting wrong 24:19 — Retail vs. institutional: why retail has been outperforming 25:20 — Private assets in an ETF wrapper: the square peg, round hole problem 31:11 — What RBC looks for before taking on a designated broker mandate 32:28 — The Pac-Man of Canadian ETF flows: asset allocation ETFs 36:29 — CAGE, XEQT, FBAL: who is actually buying all-in-one ETFs 38:58 — TLT as widowmaker and the search for yield without duration risk 40:36 — AAA CLOs, active fixed income, and aggregate bond ETFs 43:07 — CTAs, trend following, and the rise of alternatives in Canada 44:30 — Why GIC sectors are becoming antiquated — and what's replacing them 45:48 — DRAM, memory chips, and the new thematic precision playbook 47:11 — Single stock ETFs: access, covered call overlays, and trade-offs 49:07 — The #1 ETF liquidity misconception — and the three layers advisors need to know 53:28 — Best execution practices: limit orders, timing, and when to call the desk #ETF #CanadianETF #ETFInvesting #PortfolioConstruction #CoveredCallETF #AssetAllocation #XEQT #FixedIncome #AlternativeInvestments #WealthManagement #FinancialAdvisor #InvestmentStrategy #ETFLiquidity #RBCCapitalMarkets #MarketOutlook #ThematicETF #PassiveInvesting #ETFTrading #InsightIsCapital #AdvisorAnalyst

Why Half a Million People Trust PWL Capital CIO, Ben Felix

In this episode of Insight Is Capital, Pierre Daillie sit down with Ben Felix — Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at PWL Capital, co-host of the Rational Reminder podcast, and the driving force behind one of the most-watched evidence-based investing channels on YouTube with over half a million subscribers. Ben unpacks the philosophy and hard-won lessons behind PWL's radical transparency strategy — giving away the "secret sauce" of their entire investment process — and why that counterintuitive bet became the engine of the firm's organic growth. He shares how a Costco parking lot moment sparked his channel concept, why it took him three years to crack a smile on camera, and what the advice industry still consistently gets wrong about content marketing. The conversation turns candid when Ben addresses the alternatives wave sweeping Canadian portfolios — and PWL's longstanding decision to focus on building systematic, rules-based portfolios. He then reframes the advisor value proposition entirely: a real client's story reveals that none of the reasons they hired PWL had anything to do with securities selection or beating the market, and more importantly, a laundry list of high-value living, breathing concerns. The episode closes with Ben's most powerful framework for life and practice — the PERMA-V model of human flourishing — and a striking parallel between the five factor model for investing and the five factors of a well-lived life. ⏱️ CHAPTERS 00:00 – Introduction: Who is Ben Felix and why your clients are already watching him 02:00 – From basketball scholarship and mechanical engineering to CIO: Ben's accidental path into finance 07:30 – How PWL's blogging experiment became a content empire — and the Costco parking lot moment 13:00 – What advisor content gets badly wrong: black boxes, sales pitches, and the trust deficit 17:00 – The hardest part of content creation: consistency, camera nerves, and why most people quit 18:30 – "Investing has been solved": PWL's evidence-based philosophy and the case against stock-picking 20:00 – The alternatives warning: gated private funds, client transfers, and why PWL passed 23:00 – How content became a beacon for like-minded advisors — and PWL's acquisition growth model 28:00 – The self-selecting client: why prospects arrive already sold on the philosophy 30:00 – Who Ben is actually talking to: DIY investors, advisors, and the 10-year referral flywheel 34:00 – Freeing advisors from the securities selection trap: what evidence-based investing unlocks 37:00 – Why a successful DIY investor hired PWL — and none of the reasons were about the portfolio 39:30 – Goal-setting, PERMA-V, and the structured process PWL tested with Morningstar 42:00 – PWL's financial planning app: systematizing the family office model at scale 44:30 – What makes people trust Ben Felix: evidence, sources, and STEM-grade intellectual honesty 49:00 – Where PWL goes from here: acquisitions, fiduciary growth, and a possible book 51:00 – The one thing to change: applying PERMA-V as a filter for how you live and invest 53:00 – Where to find Ben Felix: YouTube, Rational Reminder, The Money Scope #BenFelix #PWLCapital #EvidenceBasedInvesting #IndexInvesting #RationalReminder #FinancialPlanning #AdvisorAlpha #DIYInvesting #FactorInvesting #WealthManagement #InsightIsCapital #PersonalFinanceCanada #ETFInvesting #FinancialAdvisor #FiduciaryAdvisor #InvestingCanada #MoneyScope #PassiveInvesting #BehaviouralFinance #PERMAModel