Episode 6: Thinking the unthinkable about Japan's fiscal future, with James David Malcolm

Episode 6: Thinking the unthinkable about Japan's fiscal future, with James David Malcolm

On the sixth episode of The Observing Japan Podcast, I discuss three things to know about Japan's politics this week, including: Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's debut at the G7 in France and her meetings with her British and Italian counterparts; the Takaichi government's decision to move ahead with a cut of the consumption tax on foodstuffs to 1%; and the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy decisions. Then, I am joined by James David Malcolm from JB Drax Honore in London for a discussion about the Bank of Japan's decisions this week and the broader danger that Japan could face a fiscal crisis within the next several years. We discuss the changing structure of the bond market, the Takaichi government's fiscal policies, the underlying growth and demographic conditions, and the broader political economy of Japan's macroeconomic policymaking. Links The Japanese Foreign Ministry's landing page [https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/epc/pageite_000001_00010.html] about Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's European trip The BOJ's interest rate decision [https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260616a.pdf] The BOJ's bond-buying decision [https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260616b.pdf] A Nikkei Asia report [https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/boj-shadow-governor-bessent-pushed-for-rate-hike] referring to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the "shadow BOJ governor" Subscribe to the Observing Japan Substack here [https://observingjapan.substack.com/]. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe [https://observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Episode 5: The person-to-person foundation of the US-Japan relationship, with Joshua Walker

On the fifth episode of The Observing Japan Podcast, I discuss three things to about Japan's politics this week, including: the scandal that could unsettle Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's government; a discussion of revising Japan's three non-nuclear principles at the prime minister's national security advisory council; and the significance of the death of former Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Kōno Yōhei. Then, I talked with Joshua Walker [https://japansociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/23.JapanSociety-JoshuaWalker-bio.pdf], the outgoing president and CEO of the Japan Society in New York and the author of a new book, Japan, Beyond the Genkan. We discussed the state of grassroots diplomacy and person-to-person cooperation between the US and Japan, drawing on his experiences at the Japan Society.. Links Joshua Walker, Japan, Beyond the Genkan [https://amplifypublishinggroup.com/product/bookstore/timely-politics-and-current-affairs/japan-beyond-the-genkan/] (Amplify) He also has a new book in Japanese, 同盟の転機　アメリカの変貌と日本の戦略 [https://www.amazon.co.jp/%E5%90%8C%E7%9B%9F%E3%81%AE%E8%BB%A2%E6%A9%9F-%E3%82%A2%E3%83%A1%E3%83%AA%E3%82%AB%E3%81%AE%E5%A4%89%E8%B2%8C%E3%81%A8%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E3%81%AE%E6%88%A6%E7%95%A5-%E3%82%B8%E3%83%A7%E3%82%B7%E3%83%A5%E3%82%A2%E3%83%BB%E3%82%A6%E3%82%A9%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AB%E3%83%BC/dp/4296126504/ref=sr_1_3?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.wA--iBRFmtkQOvlWmKkwXQ.AehL5yy09fRGlWPbU7i6Qbqmb3jQttPdVoptC14gNSI&dib_tag=se&qid=1781289408&refinements=p_27%3A%E3%82%B8%E3%83%A7%E3%82%B7%E3%83%A5%E3%82%A2%E3%83%BB%E3%82%A6%E3%82%A9%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AB%E3%83%BC&s=books&sr=1-3&th=1&psc=1&aod=1&oCode=4296126504]. Joshua Walker at the FCCJ [http://youtube.com/watch?v=4PO98yYTs0I&themeRefresh=1] in February 2026. My post [https://observingjapan.substack.com/p/remembering-kono-yohei-japan-daily] on Kōno Yōhei this week. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe [https://observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Episode 4: How the Takaichi government is thinking about Russia with James Brown

For the fourth episode of The Observing Japan Podcast, I discuss three things to know about Japan's politics this week, including: the Diet passes the Takaichi government's supplemental budget; Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae is ready to pursue a consumption tax cut, though there are details to hammer out; and Tokyo is looking to Southeast Asian countries as partners for arms exports. Then, I talk with James DJ Brown [https://www.tuj.ac.jp/directory/james-dj-brown], a professor at Temple University Japan, about the overall state of Japan's relationship with Russia. Our conversation covered the domestic drivers of Japan's Russia policy; Japan's pursuit of rapprochement under the second Abe administration; Japan's views of the Russia-Ukraine war; and Russia's place in Japan's strategic review this year. Links James DJ Brown, Cracking the Crab Hurst [https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/cracking-the-crab/] (outside US); Oxford University Press [https://global.oup.com/academic/product/cracking-the-crab-9780197829837?cc=us&lang=en&] (US) James DJ Brown, "Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?" [https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/05/russia-japan-new-relationships] Carnegie Politika James DJ Brown, "Japan Must Stop Its Embarrassing Embrace of Kremlin Cultural Projects," [https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/05/japan-must-stop-its-embarrassing-embrace-of-kremlin-cultural-projects-a92923] Moscow Times For links to the stories discussed at the start of the episode, please visit observingjapan.substack.com [http://observingjapan.substack.com]. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe [https://observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Episode 3: The state of the Japan-South Korea relationship with Dan Sneider

For the third episode of The Observing Japan Podcast, I discuss three things to know about Japan's politics this week, including: the Takaichi government's JPY 3.5tn supplemental budget; the passage of a landmark intelligence reform bill; and a state visit to Japan for Filipino President Bongbong Marcos. Then, I talk with Stanford lecturer Dan Sneider [https://fsi.stanford.edu/people/daniel_c_sneider]about the summit between Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and the broader trajectory of Japan-South Korea relations. Links Dan Sneider, "How South Korea Can Buy Alliance Insurance," [https://keia.org/analysis/how-south-korea-can-buy-alliance-insurance/]KEI Dan Sneider, "How the War in Iran Reshapes South Korea and Japan’s Nuclear Strategy," [https://keia.org/analysis/how-the-war-in-iran-reshapes-south-korea-and-japans-nuclear-strategy/] KEI "Japan-ROK Summit Meeting," [https://www.mofa.go.jp/a_o/na/kr/pageite_000001_01649.html] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan My 2023 conversation [https://observingjapan.substack.com/p/kissinger-japan-and-okinawa] with Dan Sneider about Henry Kissinger and US-Japan relations This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe [https://observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Episode 2: Japan's Energy Security and the Hormuz Crisis with Jane Nakano

For the second episode of The Observing Japan Podcast, I discuss three things to know about Japan's politics this week, including the Takaichi government's decision to begin drafting a supplemental budget; Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's efforts to bolster her support within the Liberal Democratic Party; and the prime minister's latest summit with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. Then, I talked with Jane Nakano [https://www.csis.org/people/jane-nakano], senior fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), about the implications of the Hormuz crisis for Japan's energy security. Links Jane Nakano, "How the Hormuz Energy Crisis Is Reshaping US, South Korea, and Japan Energy Cooperation," [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-world/how-the-hormuz-energy-crisis-is-reshaping-us-south-korea-and-japan-energy-cooperation] The National Interest Jane Nakano and Kristi Govella, "What Are the Implications of the Iran Conflict for Japan?" [https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-are-implications-iran-conflict-japan] CSIS METI, "Japan's 7th Basic Energy Plan," [https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/others/basic_plan/pdf/7th_outline.pdf] February 2025 MOFA, "Japan-ROK Summit Meeting," [https://www.mofa.go.jp/a_o/na/kr/pageite_000001_01649.html] 19 May 2026 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe [https://observingjapan.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]