Larry Swedroe: The Adaptive Market & The Undiversified Investor

Larry Swedroe: The Adaptive Market & The Undiversified Investor

Larry Swedroe has spent 30 years proving the market will almost always beat you — and in this episode, he explains why that's about to become even more true. In this episode of Raise Your Average, hosts Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with legendary evidence-based investing author and outsourced CIO Larry Swedroe for a wide-ranging masterclass on where markets are heading and what investors must do to survive them. Swedroe breaks down how AI is accelerating market efficiency rather than unlocking alpha, why the 60/40 portfolio carries far more equity risk than most investors realize, and why true hyper-diversification — across private credit, reinsurance, return stacking, and long-short factor strategies — is the only credible response to a world where correlation assumptions break at exactly the wrong moment. He confronts the behavioral mistakes social media is making worse, challenges advisors to stress-test risk tolerance with real dollar numbers, and argues the future of wealth management belongs to those who master alternatives. ⏱ CHAPTERS 00:00 — Cold Open: AI and the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis 02:00 — Welcome to Larry Swedroe 03:00 — Post-Retirement Life: Consulting, Writing, and Giving Back 09:00 — AI and Market Efficiency: Does Technology Create or Destroy Alpha? 11:00 — Factor Model History: CAPM, Fama-French, and Shrinking Active Alpha 14:00 — Warren Buffett's Disappearing Alpha 21:00 — The Danger of AI Data Mining and False Correlations 23:00 — What Makes a Factor Worth Owning: Persistent, Pervasive, Robust 28:00 — Leverage Aversion: When a Little Is Good and a Lot Is Dangerous 30:00 — Private Credit and the Case for Senior Secured Loans 31:00 — Return Stacking and Portable Alpha 34:00 — Hyper-Diversification: Why Your 60/40 Is Really 90/10 in Risk Terms 39:00 — The 40-Year Period Growth Stocks Underperformed Long Treasuries 40:00 — Reinsurance and AQR Style Premium: Self-Healing Assets and Impatience 45:00 — The Real Definition of Diversification: Something Is Always Hurting 47:00 — Good Advisors Are People Managers, Not Money Managers 54:00 — Stress-Testing Risk Tolerance with Real Dollar Numbers 56:00 — Monte Carlo and the True Cost of Avoiding Alternatives 59:00 — Trend Following: Clustered Returns and Why You Buy Insurance at a Cost 01:05:00 — Behavioral Mistakes in the Age of Social Media 01:07:00 — Information vs. Value-Relevant Information: Why Reddit Won't Make You Rich 01:11:00 — The Future of Advisory Practice: Wealth Management and the Next Decade #EvidenceBasedInvesting #FactorInvesting #MarketEfficiency #AIInvesting #ReturnStacking #BehavioralFinance #WealthManagement #AlternativeInvestments #PortfolioConstruction #FinancialAdvisor #RaiseYourAverage #LarrySwedroe #RetirementPlanning #ManagedFutures #TrendFollowing #PrivateCredit #Reinsurance #HyperDiversification #InvestmentStrategy #FinancePodcast #IndexInvesting #FactorPremium #ActiveVsPassive #AdvisorAnalyst #MikePhilbrick #PierreDaillie #LongShortStrategy #MonteCarloSimulation #SequenceOfReturnsRisk #PortfolioRisk

The Covered Call ETF Gap | Zed Francis and Devin Anderson

Most investors think they understand what they own — Devin Anderson and Zed Francis of Convexitas are here to prove they don't, and to show what the next generation of derivative investing actually looks like. Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick welcome Devin Anderson and Zed Francis, Co-Founders of Convexitas, for a masterclass in derivative investing that challenges everything advisors and investors think they know about covered calls, buffered ETFs, and options-based income strategies. Drawing on deep institutional backgrounds — Devin from two decades at Deutsche Bank's equity derivatives structuring desk, and Zed from UBS credit trading, distressed hedge funds, and Legal & General — the two founders lay bare the hidden complexity lurking inside "simple" yield products that dominate today's wealth management landscape. The conversation pulls no punches: the hockey-stick diagrams used to explain covered call ETFs at point-of-sale actively mask real-time risk exposures that can shift dramatically intraday. A product sold as "half the risk of equities" can quietly become nearly full equity exposure within hours of a 1% market move — and most advisors and clients have no idea. Devin and Zed argue this isn't a reason to abandon these products, but a powerful case for active, continuous derivative management that delivers what the product actually promised. The founders introduce Convexitas's philosophy: that the options market is structurally mispriced, and that most yield-seeking investors are sitting on the wrong side of that mispricing. They walk through the SMA-based approach — designed to generate accessible liquidity precisely when markets crash, enabling advisors to rebalance into distressed assets rather than being frozen by tax friction, behavioral paralysis, or trapped capital in fund wrappers. From the mechanics of short volatility to the case for unfunded overlays, return stacking, and Warren Buffett's alpha decoded through Fama-French factors, this episode is essential listening for any advisor navigating the derivative income revolution. CHAPTERS 00:00 — Introduction: The income wave reshaping wealth management 04:52 — Meet Devin Anderson & Zed Francis: Career arcs and the founding of Convexitas 12:16 — What investors actually own: The hidden complexity inside covered call ETFs 16:18 — Real-time risk exposure: How moneyness shifts dramatically intraday 19:17 — The silent danger: Stacking short volatility across multiple products 28:00 — Structural mispricing in the options market: Why sellers face a systemic disadvantage 38:00 — Investment products vs. trading instruments: A critical distinction for advisors 43:08 — The income stack: Gaining Gold and Bitcoin exposure with capital efficiency 50:43 — First-gen vs. next-gen: From buffered ETFs to actively managed derivative overlays 57:08 — Tax efficiency, rebalancing, and the SMA advantage 01:18:06 — Why accessible capital is the biggest benefit of risk mitigation — not mark-to-market 01:23:53 — Buying when there's blood in the streets: Liquidity, structure, and Warren Buffett's alpha 01:26:37 — Final outlook: Inflation, financialization, and the binary tail risks ahead #CoveredCallETF #BufferedETF #DerivativeInvesting #OptionsTrading #WealthManagement #VolatilityHarvesting #ReturnStacking #TailRiskHedge #FinancialAdvisors #IncomeInvesting #PortfolioConstruction #AlternativeInvestments #RiskManagement #TaxEfficientInvesting #SMAInvesting #RaiseYourAverage #Convexitas #InvestmentStrategy #OptionsEducation #AdvisorAlpha Copyright © AdvisorAnalyst

Dave Nadig: The ETF Bubble Nobody is Talking About

The ETF industry has never been more powerful — or more crowded. Dave Nadig, President & Director of Research at ETF.com, joins Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick for a no-holds-barred conversation on the structural risks building beneath the surface of the world's most successful financial innovation. From a potential flood of mutual fund conversions to single-stock leverage ETFs, prediction market shenanigans, private credit illiquidity traps, tokenization timelines, AI's impact on the investment industry, and the quiet erosion of the ETF's greatest strength — simplicity — this is the ETF conversation the industry isn't having. ⏱ Chapters 00:00 — Introduction: Dave Nadig, President & Director of Research, ETF.com 00:46 — The Mutual Fund-to-ETF Conversion Flood: 5,000 Funds in the Pipeline 03:12 — The Plumbing Stress Test: Market Makers, Lead Market Makers & Capacity Limits 05:40 — Too Many Tickers: When Choice Becomes Paralysis 07:51 — The Case FOR Mutual Funds: Where the Structure Still Wins 10:34 — Private Credit ETFs: Retail Bag-Holding at the End of the Cycle? 13:06 — Private Equity ETFs, SpaceX Shenanigans & Liquidity Illusions 18:02 — ETF Proliferation: More Tickers Than Stocks 19:50 — The K-Shaped ETF Innovation Curve: Institutional Genius vs. Levered Junk 22:26 — Prediction Markets, Kalshi & Single-Counterparty Risk 25:04 — AI in Investment Management: Hype vs. Genuine Edge 27:18 — Tokenization: When Does It Actually Matter for Retail? 29:38 — Atomic Settlement, Blockchain, and the DTCC's Big Project 33:27 — Crypto, Prediction Markets & Where the Money Is Really Going 36:11 — 24/7 Equity Markets: Opportunity or Chaos? 45:25 — The Kitchen Drawer Metaphor: Good Tools vs. Junk Drawer ETFs 48:00 — Covered Call ETFs & the Yield Illusion: Total Return Is the Litmus Test 50:40 — How to Spot Extractive Products vs. Genuine Innovation 54:52 — Why Dave Came Back to ETF.com — and Why He Won't Stay in a Box 01:00:02 — ETF.com 3.0: Content, Pop-Up Events & the ETF Beach House 01:03:02 — The ETF Industry's Obligation: Keeping It From Going Extractive 01:07:13 — Where to Find Dave Nadig: ETF Zoo Podcast, Excess Returns & More #ETF #ETFinvesting #DaveNadig #ETFcom #RaiseYourAverage #PassiveInvesting #MutualFunds #PrivateCredit #Tokenization #MarketStructure #LeveredETF #CoveredCallETF #PredictionMarkets #InvestingEducation #WealthManagement #FinancialAdvisors #ETFbubble #PortfolioConstruction #AIinvesting #IndexFunds

Paul Kornfeld: Don't Fight the Market—Align With It

When cash is outranking U.S. equities and gold sells off when it's supposed to rally, the advisors holding up aren't reacting faster — they're working from a better framework. In this episode of Raise Your Average, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Paul Kornfeld, Portfolio Manager and Director of Technology Services at SIA Wealth Management, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the firm's rules-based relative strength system is signalling right now — and why those signals have been readable for over a year. Paul walks through SIA's point-and-figure methodology, explaining how millions of pairwise asset comparisons cut through geopolitical noise and behavioural bias to reveal where money is actually flowing. From the Canada-vs.-U.S. rotation that started in April 2024, to the semiconductor-vs.-software divergence that flagged the SaaS repricing before most advisors saw it coming, to a candid story about a Calgary advisor group with zero energy exposure in an oil boom — this episode is a masterclass in process-driven investing. Paul and Pierre also look ahead to the durable themes likely to define the next 12–18 months: real assets over financial assets, international over U.S. broad indices, AI infrastructure over AI software, and the looming wildcard of North American trade renegotiation in Q3. ⏱ CHAPTERS 00:00 — Introduction: Markets whipsawing, cash beating U.S. equities 01:00 — Welcome Paul Kornfeld: Real rotation or relief rally? 01:40 — What advisors are asking right now 04:36 — SIA's methodology: Relative strength, point-and-figure, opportunity cost 07:12 — The goal is alignment, not prediction 12:32 — Risk management: The equity action call and the traffic-light model 14:01 — Asset class rankings: Cash above U.S. equity, commodities pulling back 15:39 — The rotation that started April 2024: International overtakes U.S. 17:51 — One takeaway: Reevaluate your U.S. equity weight vs. international 21:48 — Gold's anatomy: The longest gold rally Paul has seen 29:14 — Tactical sleeves: How advisors can outsource the hard calls 31:51 — Canada vs. U.S. sector breakdown: Energy, financials, IT divergence 33:44 — Software vs. semiconductors: The SaaS reckoning since ChatGPT 40:02 — Data infrastructure: The durable AI theme the market keeps pricing in 40:38 — Point-and-figure in action: Salesforce sell signal, CSCO buy signal 44:47 — S&P 100 positioning: Semis dominate the top five right now 50:06 — Keep politics out of your investing 50:56 — TSX60: Energy, mining, chemicals — and the Kinross success story 54:13 — The Calgary story: Zero energy exposure in an oil boom 56:57 — Buying insurance vs. making a call: Aligning without predicting 59:49 — U.S. equities at 65% of global market cap: Is the world overweight? 01:03:39 — Durable signals for the next 12–18 months 01:05:59 — Real assets, domestic production, AI infrastructure as core theme 01:07:16 — Q3 trade negotiations: The biggest wildcard for positioning 01:08:47 — Biggest surprise in 12 months: AI disruption, faster than anyone expects 01:14:28 — Where to find SIA Wealth and SICharts #RelativeStrength #SIAWealth #SectorRotation #PortfolioManagement #InvestingStrategy #CanadianInvesting #WealthManagement #TacticalAllocation #MomentumInvesting #AIInvesting #GoldBullMarket #EnergyStocks #Semiconductors #SaaSStocks #FinancialAdvisor #InvestmentAdvisor #RaiseYourAverage #MarketRotation #PointAndFigure #BehavioralFinance #EtfInvesting #TSX #SP500 #MacroInvesting #ActiveManagement Find SIA Wealth Management:siawealth.com [https://siawealth.com] | siacharts.com [https://sicharts.com]

The Party Always Ends: How to Build a Portfolio for the Morning After | Meb Faber

The party always ends — and Meb Faber, one of the most data-driven voices in global investing, says the evidence is now undeniable that the decade-long US equity dominance is giving way to something very different. SUMMARY On this episode of Raise Your Average, hosts Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with Meb Faber — co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, prolific researcher, and host of The Meb Faber Show — for a wide-ranging conversation about what investors and financial advisors must rethink as the rules of the game quietly change beneath their feet. With US equity concentration at historic extremes, inflation proving stickier than expected, and geopolitical disorder accelerating structural shifts already underway, Meb makes the case that the era of a US-heavy 60/40 portfolio solving everything is in the rearview mirror. He challenges the deeply ingrained recency bias that has left most North American investors dangerously underweight in international equities and real assets — and explains what the data actually says about where opportunity is emerging. The conversation moves from big-picture regime change into highly practical territory: how to build a portfolio that survives behaviorally, not just mathematically; how to think about concentrated, low-basis positions and the tax traps hiding inside the gains of the last 15 years; and why "tax alpha" may be the most overlooked and underutilized edge in wealth management today. Meb also shares how he's deploying AI in his own practice — including a custom-trained GPT built on his entire body of work — and what advisors should be borrowing from that playbook right now. ⏱️ CHAPTERS 00:00 — Welcome & banter: tacos, spicy food, and market chaos 08:00 — Meb joins; framing the moment: Venezuela to tariffs to Iran 13:00 — A regime change? Dissecting the end of the 40-year bull run 15:00 — The bull market in diversification: foreign markets doing 30%+ while the S&P stalls 17:00 — What advisors are underweight: ex-US equities and real assets 20:00 — How to explain a generational shift to clients without jargon 24:00 — Global diversification: the evidence from 15 famous portfolios 27:00 — The 20% annual spread problem and why tracking error breaks investors 30:00 — Portfolio vulnerabilities in the cap-weighted US-dominant model 31:00 — Opportunities: global value, small cap, fixed income niches, real assets 35:00 — The "fat" portfolio: three ingredients every investor needs 40:00 — Utilities, dividends, and the tortoise-vs-hare reversal 44:00 — Behavioral investing: why systematic strategies exist 48:00 — The concentrated position trap: identity, emotion, and the sell decision 51:00 — Systematic rebalancing: lessons from Cambria's early days 53:00 — "The easy money's been made" — market phrases Meb despises 55:00 — Deep value and what it takes to be a missionary, not a mercenary 58:00 — The best active managers and why they always close the door at the top 1:00:00 — When the penthouse becomes the outhouse 1:04:00 — The Groucho Marx rule: would you buy what you already own? 1:10:00 — Drawdown, pain tolerance, and the real test of a portfolio 1:17:00 — Concentrated low-basis positions: the tax trap hiding in plain sight 1:19:00 — 100 years of stock data: what the best-performing stocks actually returned 1:22:00 — Tax strategies: 351 exchanges, direct indexing, QSBS, and box spreads 1:27:00 — AI in practice: Meb's custom ChatGPT and how advisors should use AI now 1:30:00 — Behavioral AI: what happens when the bot knows you better than you do 1:32:00 — Closing thoughts: raising your average in a noisier, more complex world #MebFaber #CambriaInvestments #GlobalDiversification #PortfolioConstruction #ValueInvesting #TrendFollowing #6040Portfolio #TaxAlpha #ConcentratedPositions #DirectIndexing #RealAssets #InternationalStocks #RegimeChange #FinancialAdvisor #WealthManagement #InvestingStrategy #RaiseYourAverage #AIInvesting #BehavioralFinance #LongTermInvesting #ETFinvesting #SmartBeta #FactorInvesting #MarketOutlook2026 #AdvisorAnalyst