E34: Checking in with Carleigh Beriont

E35: NH Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley

NH Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley is the longest serving state party chair in America, going back to 2007. He has truly seen it all, being involved in state politics for over 50 years (he started well before he could get a driver's license) - from growing up with the state being a safe GOP presidential win through the 1970s and 80s, through a stretch where Democrats won 9 out of 10 gubernatorial races between 1996 and 2014, to its current unique combination of consistent federal victories with more recent struggles against a state GOP led by GenX Governors Chris Sununu and Kelly Ayotte. Of course, New Hampshire is also famous for our First In The Nation Presidential Primary, more than a century old. In recent years, it has been under much deeper scrutiny by the Democratic National Committee, who in 2024 approved a change in the traditional order. (New Hampshire still went first, but South Carolina was given the DNC's official blessing to be FITN.) Now, Chairman Buckley leads a team making its case (effectively, it appears) that the path back to The White House for Democrats should indeed start in New Hampshire. That decision will be made later this summer, and the stakes are high for a party desperate to succeed President Trump in 2028. In this episode, Ray and I have a wide-ranging conversation about the FITN process; the strengths of NH's case to the DNC; the political landscape heading into 2026, including what other election cycles seem to rhyme most closely with the current Democratic-friendly environment; and then we have a great discussion about the way to win in NH, and what Democrats need to do to build a true majority coalition that includes the suburban voters newer to the party *and* the blue-collar voters who were once the backbone of the party. #nhpolitics

E34: Checking in with Carleigh Beriont

Memorial Day 2026 has come and gone - which means the unofficial next phase of New Hampshire's congressional primaries has begun. Carleigh Beriont is a Hampton Selectwoman, an educator, and a former labor organizer. She's vying to be the primary progressive choice of the six main candidates in this Democratic primary for NH-1. The seat is open, thanks to four-term incumbent Chris Pappas's (D-Manchester) decision to seek the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Much of this conversation tries to get at answering different versions of the top question activists tell me is on their minds: What is the actual difference between these six candidates? Is it policy, or style, or story, or priorities...or something else? In this conversation, Beriont appears to be making the case that life experiences - and how they shape her leadership style - separates her from the field. We did plenty of politics and policy, including what her specific strategy is for making up the name ID (Stefany Shaheen) and fundraising (Shaheen and Maura Sullivan) gaps between the top two candidates in most polls and Beriont. She makes a compelling case - I hope you enjoy today's episode.

E33: Maura Sullivan

Maura Sullivan is a leading contender for an open congressional seat - New Hampshire's 1st CD - considered one of the most competitive in America. As a first-time candidate for public office in 2018 - running in this same NH-1 the last time it was an open seat - Sullivan earned a strong 2nd place finish in an 11-way primary with over 30% of the vote.In the meantime, she's been deeply involved in state politics, adding to her record of public service centered around her career as a U.S. Marine. In this episode, we discussed plenty of policy, including America's growing wealth gap, the unaffordability of everyday life, health care, and foreign policy.However, I was eager to spend a lot of time getting into Maura's time in the Marines, and the moments in her life that set her on a path that's led to combat readiness exercises in Japan, serving in the middle of the Iraq War in Fallujah, being at Quantico in her first full day as a full-fledged Marine on (of all days) September 11th, 2001, and serving in the Obama Administration. I've known and been friends with Maura for more than eight years...but I still learned a lot in this conversation about what makes her tick, and why she is a formidable candidate with a lot to offer at this moment.#nhpolitics [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/nhpolitics] #congress [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/congress] #2026election [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/2026election] ‪@stevemarchandnh‬ [https://www.youtube.com/@stevemarchandnh] #marines [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/marines] #democrats [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/democrats]

Projecting the 2026 NH State Senate Elections, V1.0

Today's episode is based on a live show recorded on Tuesday, April 28th, which gave my paid Substack subscribers a sneak preview ahead of the full "2026 NH State Senate Projection Show, V1.0". The full show, with graphics, charts, and full data, is available at my YouTube channel [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCES_daZPEidU7LifTncbokw]. This is a trimmed down, audio-friendly version of the full show, which gets into the six senate districts currently held by NH Republicans...and which could flip in various "shades" of a Blue Wave 2026. I also spend time going through why certain types of communities are moving steadily towards the GOP and Democrats, and how that is reflected in the modeling I've successfully developed over the past six years to accurately project downballot results going back to 2020. Read a lot more about this type of work I do analyzing NH and national politics at www.SteveMarchand.com.

E31: Stefany Shaheen

In the Democratic primary for NH's 1st congressional district - a purple seat that is open because incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas is pursuing NH's U.S. Senate seat - Stefany Shaheen has been the frontrunner since entering the race in May of last year. That's the advantage of being the daughter of the historic political figure Pappas is hoping to succeed - Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the first woman in American history to be elected Governor and Senator. However, with that name ID also comes increased scrutiny, and a *lot* of questions directly related to the family's legacy. On today's episode, I purposely did not want to spend much time on such topics. Instead, we ran the gambit, from policy (the weeds of health care, inflation, AI, and more) to the surprisingly conservative politics of GenX (we were both born in 1974), to the thread of competitive sports that many may not know runs through her life. You can learn more about Shaheen's campaign at www.StefanyShaheen.com.