S2Ep81 | 24000 Held To The Tick A Second Day But The Pros Just Cut Their Bet And FII Turned Defensive | Buy Dips With A Hedge | 15th July Wed

S2Ep81 | 24000 Held To The Tick A Second Day But The Pros Just Cut Their Bet And FII Turned Defensive | Buy Dips With A Hedge | 15th July Wed

On the screen yesterday looked calm. Nifty slipped two thirds of a percent, but 24000 held to the tick for the second day running and closed 24052, pinned between the walls. Then the official positioning dropped, and it told a different story. Episode 81 is a news podcast with a twist, and the read is simple, still a buyer of dips on this wall for a third day, but the split under the surface is exactly why the hedge stays on. The tape first. Crude was the whole story, Brent past 86 dollars on the Hormuz standoff, and the market slipped with it, Nifty down 159 to 24052, the Sensex down 561 to 77055. But 24000 held to the tick again, the low was 24023, and the close pinned between 24000 and 24100. Under the hood it was defensive, pharma healthcare and metals the only green, while realty the public banks autos and IT were sold, HCLTech down four and a half percent after its result. The foreign desks sold 740 crore of cash, the domestics bought 2,928 crore and absorbed it. And the fear gauge did not fall on expiry the way it usually does, it rose three and a half percent to 13.75. Now the twist, from the NSE participant open interest for 14 July. The pros move first, and going into expiry they were long both wings, paying for a move. Overnight they cut it, long calls down from 1,52,033 to 47,803, the long puts trimmed too. The smart desk took the bet off the table. The foreign desks went the other way, more defensive, index futures short out to 2,65,465, another 44,000 downside puts added, and for the first time the big single stock long book trimmed by about 82,000 contracts, a bearish read across the whole book. The crowd did the opposite of both, adding a lakh of long calls and selling even more downside, now short 6,29,019 index puts under the market. Smart money stepped back, the crowd stepped in. That is why this is a buy dips market, not a chase it market, and why the hedge stays on. The crowd is short 6,29,019 puts sitting right at 24000. As long as 24000 holds those writers are fine and dips get bought. If crude cracks it they all cover at once, and a slow drift becomes a fast drop. The levels, from the official chain. 24000 is the line, the biggest paired cluster on the board. 24100 is the first resistance, the heaviest call wall at over 6 crore contracts, then 24200, 24300, and the far wall 24500. Support is 23900 then 23800. The fear gauge at 13.75 prices about 210 points, a box of 23850 to 24260 today. Tomorrow is Sensex weekly expiry. It opens flat near 77050. The sellers stacked the top, 77500 the heaviest call wall, 77200 and 77100 just under it, almost 12 million call contracts written defending that zone, so it is capped. 77000 is the pivot, 76900 then 76500 the supports, and the board is pricing a 76500 to 77500 band into the close. Fade rallies into 77200 toward 77500 with a stop, buy dips to 77000 that hold, trade the edges not the middle, and a fresh crude headline beats the pin. Overnight the tone improved, US closed green on cooler inflation with the Nasdaq up 0.9 percent, Asia is green, Taiwan chips reversed up 1.8 percent, and crude stopped climbing at 86. GIFT Nifty 24046, a flat open. The rupee is still soft at 96.20. Episode 80 graded two and a half out of five, direction right and the hedge paid, but 24000 held to the tick so the lower buy never came. SOURCES Data from NSE and BSE official BhavCopy and end of day reports. STREAMING Streaming free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research or consult a registered advisor. HASHTAGS #Nifty #SensexExpiry #Crude #Hormuz #OptionChain #FnO #TheTanmayEdge #StockMarketIndia #Trading #GIFTNifty #RupeeCase

S2Ep80 | 24000 Held To The Tick And IT Bought The Crash | Now Crude Is Over 80 Into Nifty Expiry, Buy Dips But Keep The Insurance | 14th July Tuesday

Yesterday Korea had a Black Monday and Indian IT walked in and bought the dip. Overnight that same chip selling crossed into America and crude broke 80. So we gap down onto 24000 again, on Nifty weekly expiry. Episode 80 is a news podcast with a twist, and the read is: still a buyer of dips, but with caution now, and never without insurance. The tape first. The Hormuz news gapped the Sensex down 700 at the bell and IT bought the whole thing back. Nifty made its low at 24000.20, the 24000 line held to the tick, and it closed 24211, dead on the 24200 pin. IT led up 3.59 percent, TCS up 5.43, HCLTech up 5.02 after a beat, profit 4,626 crore, up 20 percent on the year. But under the green screen the FIIs sold 3,062 crore of cash while the DIIs bought 2,172 crore to absorb it, so the buyer was domestic money and IT, not the foreign desks. June inflation printed hot at 4.38 percent and pushed India VIX up 8 percent to 13.28. Now the twist, from the NSE participant open interest. The pros are long the futures and long BOTH wings, 1,52,033 long calls and 1,19,750 long puts, paying up for a move into expiry. The foreign desks are the cautious side, short 2,55,113 index futures, writing the upside calls, buying the downside puts, and they sold the cash. The clients are short 6,06,418 index puts under the market, the put writers betting 24000 holds. That is the fuel if it cracks. And the tell that ties it together: the fear gauge ROSE into expiry while the smart desk buys options, so the max pain glue is weak and price can trend. This is not a dead pin. Then the caution. Yesterday crude was under 80 and gold was falling, a clean dip to buy. Overnight crude went to 84, over the line, on the Hormuz escalation, with Iran calling the strait closed and Washington talking blockade and a tanker toll. The Nasdaq fell 1.6 percent for a second night. The one tell still on the bulls side is gold, flat at 4009 and still not spiking. So the downside is live now, not theoretical. The levels, from the 14 Jul BhavCopy chain. Max pain 24200. Support 24000, the single biggest line on the board at close to 1.9 crore puts, up 83 lakh yesterday. Resistance 24300 at 93 lakh calls, then the hard cap 24500 at 1.7 crore calls, the heaviest strike. Put to call ratio 1.62, put heavy and supportive. Straddle near 200, expected move about 24010 to 24410. The plan. Open near 24040, into the wall. Hold 24000 and buy the dip with a hedge, reclaim 24100 then the 24200 pin, then 24300, and 24500 only if that breaks. Lose 24000 on real volume, which only needs crude to keep running or one fresh strait headline, and gamma flips, the short puts run, and it gets fast toward 23900 then 23800. Above 24000 a buyer, below it on volume out. Keep the insurance on into expiry. Yesterday, episode 79, went four and a half out of five. We called the 24000 buy, the wall held to the tick, and IT led it back to the pin, only the 24300 stretch untagged. Global backdrop: Nasdaq down 1.55, S&P down 0.79, Dow futures soft, Asia red, Brent 84, WTI 79, Gold 4009, Dollar index 101.2, USD INR 95.62. SOURCES Data from NSE and BSE official BhavCopy and end of day reports. STREAMING Streaming free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research or consult a registered advisor. HASHTAGS #Nifty #NiftyExpiry #Crude #Hormuz #OptionChain #FnO #TheTanmayEdge #StockMarketIndia #Trading #GIFTNifty #RupeeCase META Episode 80 . Season 2 . Tuesday 14 Jul 2026 . Runtime target 8 min (script 1,290 words) . Drop 8:30 AM IST . Nifty weekly expiry today . POV buy dips with caution and insurance, crude over 80

S2Ep79 | The Breakout FIIs Finally Backed, Into A Weekend Crude Shock | Why The 24000 Gap Down Is A Dip To Buy | 13th July Monday

On Friday we finally broke out. Then over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up 4 percent and we open lower near 24000. Sounds scary. It is not. Episode 79 is a news podcast with a twist, and the read is simple: this is a dip you buy, not one you sell. The tape first. Nifty closed 24206 up 1.02 percent, the first close above 24200 in the whole move. Sensex 77569 up 1.08 percent. India VIX fell another 8 percent to 12.25, a fresh low. Broad rally: Realty led up 3.49 percent, PSU Bank up 3.03, Bank Nifty up 1.39, IT up 1.96 off the TCS beat, Metal up 1.48. Midcaps and Smallcaps up over 1.4 each. Out of the entire board only FMCG closed red. The broadest green tape of the week. Now the twist, straight from the NSE participant open interest. For the first time in a week the big money bought it with us. FIIs bought 2,603 crore of cash and DIIs added 2,020 crore, both hands buying. In futures the FIIs covered: still net short 2,54,711 index contracts but down from 2,66,251, so they bought back 11,540 shorts, covered 37,617 short calls, and trimmed puts while adding stock longs. Every leg, the hedge came off. They covered, they did not flip, still net short, but the direction is clear. Pros sit long gamma with 1,74,916 long calls and 1,22,524 long puts. Clients are short 6,29,518 index puts, the put writers who defend 24000. The weekend then flipped one of Friday's three legs. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US struck a third night, and the Iranian oil waiver was revoked. This morning Brent gapped 4 percent to 79 and GIFT Nifty is down about 205 points, pointing to an open near 24000. But watch the tells: crude stopped under 80, a contained spike not a runaway, and gold FELL more than a percent to 4072. In real fear money runs into gold, today it is leaving. That is a positioning wobble, not a panic, and the gap down lands you right on the biggest put wall on the board. The levels, from the 14 Jul BhavCopy chain into Tuesday expiry. Max pain 24200, sitting on Friday's close. Support 24000, the 105 lakh put wall, then 23800. Resistance 24300 at 94 lakh calls, then the hard wall 24500 at 141 lakh calls. Put to call ratio 1.27, put heavy and supportive. The straddle is near 197, so the expected move is about 24010 to 24405. The plan. Buy the 24000 to 23950 zone with a stop, target the reclaim of 24200 then a grind to 24300. The tell in the first hour is a reclaim of 24100 with IT holding green off HCL Tech Q1, which reports today. The invalidation is precise: a clean break below 24000 on volume, which only happens if crude runs over 80 or a fresh strait headline hits. Then stand aside, the next shelf is 23800. Keep the hedge on with VIX at 12.25. Friday, episode 78, went five out of five. We called the gap up over 24000, the hold, the grind to the 24200 cap, and IT as the swing that decides the break. All of it landed, IT led up almost 2 percent and TCS added 1.45 after the numbers. Global backdrop: US closed green Friday, Dow futures soft this morning, Asia mixed, Brent 79, Gold 4072, Dollar index 101.1, USD INR 95.32. SOURCES Data from NSE and BSE official BhavCopy and end of day reports. STREAMING Streaming free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research or consult a registered advisor. HASHTAGS #Nifty #Crude #BankNifty #OptionChain #FnO #TheTanmayEdge #StockMarketIndia #Trading #GIFTNifty #RupeeCase META Episode 79 . Season 2 . Monday 13 Jul 2026 . Runtime target 8 min . Drop 8:30 AM IST . Nifty weekly expiry Tue 14 Jul . POV buy the 24000 dip

S2Ep78 | The Tanmay Edge EP78 | Gap Up Over 24000 Into The FII Call Supply | TCS Prints A 9.5 Billion Dollar Book, IT Decides | 10th July Friday

Yesterday 24000 was resistance and we got sold right there. This morning GIFT Nifty is at 24133, a gap up of about 170 points straight over it. So the question flips from can we reach 24000 to can we hold above it. Episode 78 is a news podcast with a twist, and the twist is in the positioning. The tape first. Nifty closed 23962 up 0.34 percent, Sensex 76741 up 0.31 percent, and India VIX collapsed almost 9 percent to 13.36 as the Wednesday crash fear unwound. It was a broad market day. Realty led up 3.54 percent, Media up 2.09, Consumer Durables up 1.68, PSU Bank up 1.62, Midcaps up 1.4 and Smallcaps up 1.8. Only two sectors closed red. Auto down 0.21 and IT down 0.30. IT was the weakest sector on the board, right into the biggest result of the quarter. After the bell TCS reported. Profit 13,349 crore up almost 5 percent, revenue up 14 percent, a 9.5 billion dollar order book with an AI led SKF deal, AI revenue at a 2.6 billion dollar annual run rate, and a 12 rupee interim dividend. Strong book, with the only soft spot a 24 percent margin squeezed by the annual wage hike. The most beaten down sector in the market printed a healthy number at a six year low price. Now the twist, straight from the NSE participant open interest. FIIs sold only 533 crore of cash but stayed net short 2,66,251 index futures, barely covered from Wednesday's 2,68,586. At the same time they are net long 5,91,571 stock futures, holding 5,24,225 long index puts, and short 2,56,228 index calls. Long the stocks, hedged on the index, selling the calls overhead. Pros are net long just 16,954 index futures with balanced call and put books. Clients are net long futures, long calls, and short 6,45,560 puts, writing the support. DIIs bought another 2,058 crore of cash. The bounce is led by domestic money and put writers while the FIIs cap the index. The levels, from the 14 Jul BhavCopy chain. Resistance where the FIIs sold their calls: heaviest call open interest 24200 at 89.9 lakh contracts, then 24300 and 24000. Support at the put base: heaviest put open interest 23800 at 65.8 lakh, then 24000. 24000 is the gamma flip. Above it positive gamma dampens moves and the market grinds, below it negative gamma makes moves fast. The 14 Jul straddle is near 278 with front volatility crushed to 11.6 percent, so the expected zone into the weekend is 23800 to 24200. The plan. Open near 24100 to 24130 into the 24200 call supply. Hold above 24000 and the grind is toward 24200, but that is where the FIIs defend, so book do not chase. Lose 24000 in the first 30 minutes and it is a slide to the 23800 put base, which is the buy zone not the panic. TCS and IT are the swing. It is a Friday into the weekend with crude at 76 still the open risk, so keep the hedge on. Yesterday, episode 77, went three out of five. We called the gap up open and nailed 24000 flipping to resistance. The misses were Sensex settling 76741 not 76500, and IT lagging into TCS instead of leading. Global backdrop: Nasdaq up 1.30 percent, Nikkei up 2.09, Hang Seng up 1.46, KOSPI up 4.12. Brent 76.5, Gold 4129, Dollar index 100.6, USD INR 95.38. --- ## SOURCES Data from NSE and BSE official BhavCopy and end of day reports. ## STREAMING Streaming free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. ## DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and is not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research or consult a registered advisor. ## HASHTAGS #Nifty #TCS #BankNifty #OptionChain #FnO #TheTanmayEdge #StockMarketIndia #Trading #GIFTNifty #RupeeCase ## META Episode 78 . Season 2 . Friday 10 Jul 2026 . Runtime target 8 min . Drop 8:30 AM IST . Next Nifty weekly expiry Tue 14 Jul

S2Ep77 | Nifty Broke 24000 Support, Down 516 Points. Smart Money Bought The Fall. Sensex Expiry And TCS Q1 Today | 9th July Thursday

Yesterday the calm broke. The Nifty fell 516 points, or 2.12 percent, to close at 23882, its worst day in weeks, with only 4 of 50 stocks green. The Sensex fell 1677 points to 76503, down 2.15 percent. The fear index, India VIX, jumped almost 25 percent in a single day to 14.54, after sitting near 11 all week. When VIX moves like that, option prices rise and daily swings get bigger. The reason was oil. Brent crude jumped almost 5 percent to 77.67 dollars on an Iran and Hormuz supply scare, and the world sold off with it. Korea fell 5.65 percent, Japan 2.15 percent, and Europe closed deep red. The rupee slipped to 95.56. The 24000 support every desk had defended all week did not hold, and the Nifty went all the way down to 23805. But here is the twist, and it is in the flow data. On that red day, foreign funds bought a net 1,962.80 crore of Indian stock and domestic funds added 790.16 crore. Both were buyers into the fall. In the derivatives the pros are net long about 10,201 index futures with put protection, careful not scared. The foreign funds are short 2,68,586 index futures but long 5,77,555 single stock futures, so it is a hedge, not a crash bet. Retail, the crowd, is long 1,87,155 futures and has sold 6,28,922 put options, exposed if support breaks. Big money is hedged and buying. The crowd is exposed. This morning looks better. GIFT Nifty points to a gap up open near 23977, up 0.41 percent, so the Sensex should open near 76800. Asia turned green, Japan up 2 percent and Korea up 1.7 percent after crashing yesterday. But oil is still climbing, Brent 78.87, and the rupee is still weak, so the bounce has a headwind. Today is a double event in one session, Sensex weekly expiry and TCS first quarter results. On the Sensex option chain, resistance is at 77000 where the biggest call selling sits, then 77500, and support is at 76000, with 76500 the magnet in the middle. The straddle is priced near 780 points, the swing the market expects today. With VIX rising into expiry the magnet is weak, so this is not a day to blindly sell options. The plan is simple, sell near 77000 resistance, buy near 76000 support, and skip the chop in the middle. On the Nifty the map flipped. 24000 was support all week and is now resistance, with 24200 above it. Support is 23800, then a fast gap to 23700, and the week is priced for a range of 23500 to 24260. And the tell. The one sector that held yesterday was IT, down just 1.37 percent, and it reports today through TCS. Watch the IT reaction and let it lead. All figures are official NSE and BSE data for 8 July 2026 plus 9 July pre market prints. Free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], where every episode streams first. SOURCES (public) NSE, BSE. Official EOD close 8-Jul-2026 plus 9-Jul pre-market prints. STREAMING Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube, and live on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. DISCLAIMER Educational and informational only. Not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Do your own research or consult a registered adviser. HASHTAGS #Nifty #Sensex #TCS #Q1FY27 #Expiry #OptionsTrading #Nifty50 #BankNifty #IndiaVIX #FIIDII #StockMarketIndia #TheTanmayEdge #RupeeCase