S2EP70 | 24,000 Broke. Volatility Is Rising. The Half-Year's Biggest Expiry Won't Pin Like They Think | 30th June Thursday

S2EP70 | 24,000 Broke. Volatility Is Rising. The Half-Year's Biggest Expiry Won't Pin Like They Think | 30th June Thursday

Last episode the pros bought volatility at the lows. One session later, the trap sprang — Nifty lost 24,000, closing 23,946, and India VIX ROSE to 13.56 on a down day. Today is the heaviest settlement on the calendar: the Nifty weekly, the Nifty and Bank Nifty monthly, the June quarterly, and the half-yearly long-dated and LEAPS series all expire on one close. Tanmay breaks down why a RISING fear gauge into a max-settlement expiry flips the entire expiry-day playbook — why the max-pain magnet at 24,000 loses its grip, where the real support now sits, and how the smart money just repositioned. In this episode: - Why Monday's breakdown was broader than the headline (2,036 stocks down vs 1,330 up) — and India fell while the world rallied - The defensive rotation: autos and banks out (Bank Nifty lost 58,000), pharma and power in - The positioning shift: after 24,000 broke, the pros CUT their upside calls and kept their puts; foreign money pressed shorts and bought puts; the crowd is short 7,46,908 puts - The levels: 24,000 flips to resistance and max pain, 23,800 is the new support, the straddle prices only ~160 - The education: a rising VIX into a monthly/quarterly/LEAPS expiry detaches price from max pain — falling vol, trust the pin; rising vol, respect the trend - The plan: buy the dip at 23,800, own cheap optionality, don't sell the straddle into a rising fear gauge Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL official. Not investment advice. Stream free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube. HASHTAGS: #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #BankNifty #Expiry #OptionChain #IndiaVIX #Volatility #FIIDII #ProVsClient #RupeeCase #StockMarketIndia #Trading LINKS: Listen / stream free: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] X: https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti [https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti]

S2EP69 | 24,000 Support, 24,200 Resistance. The Pros Just Bought Volatility. Monthly Expiry Tomorrow | 29th June Monday

Thursday closed green — and gave back 205 points from its high. The rally hit resistance and got sold back to flat. Then three days shut for Muharram. Today we come back into the eve of the monthly expiry, coiled inside a 200-point range — and the pros just went and bought volatility. In this episode: the upper-wick fade nobody on your feed flagged; the options book by participant — the Pro desk now long both calls AND puts (long volatility) while the crowd sells puts into a VIX low; and the official 30-June chain — 24,000 support that held all day, fresh 24,200 resistance, a 24,100 pin, India VIX at 13, a ~225 straddle and a 1SD of about 275 points. The lesson: read the chain for volatility, not just direction — and when vol is cheap and the pros are buying it, you own the move, you don't sell it. POV: buy the dips. Levels, positioning, and the plan into Tuesday's monthly expiry — all off NSE, BSE and NSDL data. No noise. Free every trading morning at 8:30 IST on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] — built on RupeeCase, India's first systematic investing terminal. This is The Tanmay Edge. You just got earlier. ---------------------------------------------------------------- SHOW NOTES / CHAPTERS: 00:00 Green is a costume — Thursday's rejected high 01:15 The fade: split tape, autos up, IT/metals down 02:30 Flows: DII carrying, FII lightening the short 03:45 The options book — Pro long both wings, crowd short puts 05:30 Levels + volatility — 24,000 / 24,100 / 24,200, VIX 13, straddle 225, 1SD ±275 07:00 Education: read the chain for volatility, not just direction 08:15 Macro: 5th down day on Wall St, crude ~$70, flat GIFT 08:55 The plan — buy the dips, own the optionality ---------------------------------------------------------------- KEYWORDS/TAGS: Nifty, Sensex, monthly expiry, options, max pain, call wall, put floor, FII DII, open interest, India VIX, BankNifty, 24000, 24200, Tanmay Edge SOURCES (public, on-air): NSE, BSE, NSDL/SEBI/RBI only. "India's first systematic investing terminal." DISTRIBUTION: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] (homepage free), Telegram, @TanmayKurtkoti on X / LinkedIn / Instagram.

S2EP68 | 24000 Cracked, Reclaimed, Re-Floored. Now Sensex Expiry | 25th June Thursday

Tuesday the floor cracked. Wednesday Nifty reclaimed 24,000 (24,021.65, +0.83%) and Sensex 76,991.22 (+1.04%) — but on a DII rescue while FIIs sold cash and deepened their futures short. The tell that changed the read: the 30-June Nifty put-call ratio flipped 0.78 to 1.21, with 24,000 now the biggest put wall and put-writers rebuilding the floor they lost. Today is Sensex weekly expiry, gapping up into the 77,000 wall on a zero-day, with US Core PCE waiting tonight. Levels, positioning, gamma and the plan. SOURCE LINE: NSE, BSE, NSDL.

S2EP67 | 24000 Cracked On Expiry. The Floor Is Now The Ceiling | 24th June Wednesday

For three weeks, 24,000 was the floor. On expiry day it cracked. The Nifty held till 11:30, then let go straight through 24,000 and closed at the low — 23,824.10, down 278.80 (−1.16%), seven stocks up and forty-three down. The level you were buying is now the level you have to sell into. Today's read, all the numbers in one place: • Tue close: Nifty 23,824.10 (−278.80, −1.16%), range 23,784.95–24,135.50. Sensex 76,200.68 (−893.39, −1.16%). IT and metals led the fall — Infosys −3.36%, TCS −3.16%, Tata Steel −2.66%. Only four Nifty names green. • The why: global, not domestic. Korea fell ~10% Monday (circuit-breaker, chip rout), US Nasdaq −2% overnight, an everything-selloff with gold and crypto down too. • Flows: FII cash net FLAT (+₹18 Cr) on a 279-point down day; DII bought ₹680 Cr. The fall came through index futures and global beta, not cash selling. • Positioning (Pro → FII → Client): Pros flipped net short (−2,131). FII went deeper short — ~2.29 lakh contracts (added ~5,800), all three legs bearish. Client bought the dip — net long ~1.63 lakh, the crowd catching the knife. • The flip (30-Jun chain): 24,000 — the old floor — is now the biggest call wall of the month (~13.6M). Real support below is 23,500 (8.5M puts). PCR 0.78, call-heavy. • Max pain: 24,000 — the chain's magnet is still the broken floor. The whole week is a fight at that one number. • Premarket: GIFT Nifty 23,864 (+53), soft higher open. US tech −2% overnight, no help. Brent 76.41, crude a cushion. Gold under 4,100. USD/INR 94.73. India VIX 14. The plan: no expiry today, so no pin — it's an auction, a follow-through day. Sell the rallies, respect the broken level. Resistance 23,900 then 24,000; sell into it or let it prove itself. Support 23,800, 23,700, then the real floor 23,500. Only a clean reclaim and hold of 24,000 says the foreign shorts are covering. The education today: support becomes resistance. When a floor that held for weeks breaks, it flips into a ceiling — because the longs who bought it are now trapped underwater and sell into any bounce back to break-even. Their relief is your resistance. EP66 graded 3/8 — the pin thesis broke when 24,000 cracked, though the break-calls landed. Full scorecard at rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Trade the level, not the opinion. Free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], Apple Podcasts and Spotify — every trading morning at 8:30 AM IST. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL.

S2EP66 | Weekly Expiry: 24000 Floor, 24200 Ceiling, Max Pain 24100 | 23rd June Tuesday

Monday's gap-up did half its job. The Nifty held the 24,000 floor, closed up 0.37% at 24,102.90, and the IT wreck from Friday reversed clean — Tech Mahindra, Infosys and pharma led the bounce. But it stalled cold at 24,200 and faded. Now it's weekly expiry, and the chain has built the tightest room of the week. Today's read, all the numbers in one place: • Mon close: Nifty 24,102.90 (+89.80, +0.37%), range 24,073–24,168. Sensex 77,094.07 (+0.38%). IT and banks led; consumption (Asian Paints, Titan, ITC) dragged. • Flows: FII sold ₹636 Cr cash, DII bought ₹1,036 Cr — a flip from Friday. No conviction either side. • Positioning (Pro → FII → Client): Pros flipped to a small net long in index futures (+1,193) — first desk leaning up. FII still net short ~2.23 lakh contracts but covered ~3,600; hedged-bearish (long puts, short calls). Client net long 1.54 lakh, sold puts heavily — crowd bullish. • The walls (23-Jun chain): FLOOR 24,000 = 13.15M puts (biggest line). CEILING 24,200 = 13.35M calls (biggest line). ATM 24,100 balanced. PCR 0.87. • Max pain: 24,100 — exactly where we open. • Gamma flip ~24,150: above it pins toward 24,200, below 24,100 amplifies toward 24,000. • Expected move: ATM straddle ~129 → 1SD ±129 → 23,975–24,230. VIX ~13, IV ~10%. • Premarket: GIFT Nifty flat at 24,086 (−13). Global soft — US tech −1.3% overnight, Asia red. Brent 77.71, crude a cushion. USD/INR 94.68. The plan is a pin: coil 24,000–24,200, settle near 24,100. Hold 24,150 and it drifts toward the 24,200 ceiling; lose 24,100 and it slides to the 24,000 floor where you buy the dip. A clean close below 24,000 opens 23,950 then 23,900. The education today: 0DTE theta. On expiry the option you buy in the morning has a 3:30 deadline — you can be right on direction and still lose, because time decay drains it faster than the spot can move. The walls tell you where; the clock says it must get there today. EP65 graded 5/6 — every level and the band landed; only the "IT keeps dragging" call missed, because IT bounced. Full scorecard at rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Trade the level, not the opinion. Free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], Apple Podcasts and Spotify — every trading morning at 8:30 AM IST. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL.