S2EP53 | Sensex Expiry Day, And The Big Money Is Short | 4th June Thursday

S2EP63 | Sensex Expiry, And The Fed Turned Hawkish. 77000 Decides | 18th June Thursday

Four green days, a real breakout, and then the Fed turned hawkish overnight. On Thursday's episode of The Tanmay Edge we trade the collision. A market holding its first ever Nifty close above 24,000 and a Sensex back over 77,000, walking into Sensex weekly expiry the morning after the US Federal Reserve flipped its tone. The setup. The Sensex closed 77,155, up 347 points, its fourth straight up day. Nifty added 96 to close at 24,085, the first time it has ever closed above 24,000 after five rejections. The wall finally became a floor. The leadership was broad and cyclical, metals, defence, IT and energy out front, the private financials, Axis, Kotak and the Bajaj twins, the drag. The overhang resolved overnight, and not in the market's favour. The Federal Reserve held its rate but turned hawkish, the dot-plot now points to a hike this year rather than a cut, and Wall Street faded on it. Yet India is shrugging it off, GIFT Nifty points to a flat to soft open, barely 28 points lower. The reason is the commodity screen, Brent crude at a three-month low near 78 and a half dollars, plus a firm rupee. Cheap oil is the cushion under this breakout. Then the expiry board, where this episode lives. The put writers built the floor at 77,000, adding almost 17 and a half lakh fresh contracts there in a single day, taking it past 21 lakh. The call writers sit thickest at 77,500. The put-call ratio is 1.35, a bullish tilt. The at-the-money straddle is about 470 points, which sets a band of 76,690 to 77,625, and the one-standard-deviation range agrees, 76,570 to 77,740. And the switch, the gamma flip where the big desks move from amplifying the tape to pinning it, sits near 77,300, and we closed just beneath it, in the amplified zone, while the Nifty closed above its own switch, in the calm one. The positioning is the twist. The foreign desk bought cash a third straight day, a small 179 crore, and the domestic funds added 1,703 crore, but in the index futures the foreign desk is still short about 2.25 lakh contracts, trimmed by only 5,000, while the retail crowd sits net long. A fresh breakout while the biggest player stays short. If 77,000 holds, that short is squeeze fuel. If the hawkish Fed cracks it, the short looks smart. The plan. Hold 77,000 and the bias stays up, reclaim 77,300 and the upside opens toward 77,500, lose 77,000 and there is an air-pocket to 76,500. On the Nifty, 24,000 has flipped to support, buy dips toward it, take off into 24,200, wrong below 23,950. And size down, it is a 0DTE expiry after a hawkish Fed, India VIX is back near 13 and a half, and cheap premium into expiry is a trap. Don't chase the gap, let the level prove itself. Episode 62 graded 4.5 out of 5, full scorecard on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Stream free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL, US Federal Reserve. Trade the level, not the opinion.

S2EP62 | Sensex Expiry Tomorrow. The Fed Tonight. 24000 Held | 17th June Wed

Yesterday the number everyone watched finally gave way. 24000. Four times this market ran at it and four times it got thrown back. On the fifth try Nifty pushed to 24002 and, for the first time, closed on the number at 23989. A foothold at last. But park that win, because the real action is the next two sunrises. Tonight the United States Federal Reserve sets rates, after we have gone home. And tomorrow the Sensex expires. Today is not the main event, today is the setup. The Sensex closed 76808, up 544 points, three-quarters of a percent, and the leadership flipped. The IT pack, dead last on Monday, was suddenly first, HCL Tech up 3.6 percent, dragging the index up with the financials and Reliance. Nifty rode the same wave to 23989, up 135. Now read the expiry board it left behind. The Sensex expiry is a textbook pin. The put writers, betting we hold, stacked their heaviest support at 76500, the single biggest block on the board, and piled almost 9.5 lakh fresh contracts on it yesterday. The call writers, betting we stall, sit thickest at 77000 then 77500. So the box is 76500 floor, 77000 roof. The whole-chain put-call ratio is 1.44, a bullish tilt. The at-the-money straddle is about 645 points, a straddle-implied band of roughly 76160 to 77450, and the one-standard-deviation math lands almost identical at about 660 either side. Two methods, same answer. The switch, the gamma flip, sits near 76850, just above the close, below it moves amplify, above it the tape pins. The Nifty board is stranger. On the next weekly both walls sit on one brick, 24000, the heaviest written calls and the heaviest written puts in the whole market on the same strike, 6.5 crore of calls and 5.4 crore of puts, a magnet. PCR 1.03, straddle about 326, a band of 23663 to 24315, gamma flip right at 24000. Both indices are coiled on their hinges into a Fed night. The positioning says up. The foreign desk bought a second straight day in cash, another 384 crore, but in the futures it is still short roughly 2.3 lakh contracts. The cover is real but unfinished, and that is the fuel if the walls give way. Domestic funds sold 1152 crore. The complication is overnight. The Nasdaq fell 1.15 percent before tonight's Fed, so the IT pack that did the work yesterday stares at a red screen, your first tell. Watch IT, then the financials that must hold, then the laggards, autos, metals and PSU banks. Everything else is friendly, Brent crude at 79, rupee firm at 94.56, GIFT flat at 24009. The plan is patient. Sensex, hold above 76500 and the bias is up into expiry, over 76900 opens 77000 then 77500, lose 76500 and it breaks to 76000. Nifty, do not chase 24000, buy the dip into 23900 to 23800, take off into 24100, wrong only below 23650. And size down into the event. VIX collapsed to 13.36, but cheap premium on a Fed day is not a free lunch, do not sell into a central bank or buy the breakout before it. Episode 61 graded 4.5 of 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Stream free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. Data from NSE, BSE and NSDL.

S2EP61 | Expiry Day. Buy The Dips. 24000 Decides | 16th June Tuesday

Yesterday this market walked straight up into resistance and resistance did not break. Nifty opened 23984, touched 24011, then slid all day to close 23853.90, up almost a percent but well below the open. That is not a breakout. That is a market running into resistance. And yet, underneath the fade, the one thing I have waited two weeks for finally happened. The foreign desk that would not stop selling turned around and bought. Today is expiry, the line is 24000, and the buyer is back. You still buy the dips. The strength sat where it has all week. Autos led, Trent ran 5.35 percent, Maruti and Mahindra both over 3, banks and capital goods firm, defensives and a tired power pack the laggards. The Sensex did the same, up 0.97 percent to 76264. Risk-on, exhausted at resistance. The part that changes the story is the positioning. For two weeks the foreign desk was the only seller in the building, short two and a half lakh index futures and refusing to cover. Yesterday it blinked. In the cash market the foreigners turned net buyers of 143 crore, the domestics added 2875, and in the futures the same desk bought back 23371 contracts. A short that covers is not a seller, it is a buyer in disguise, it has to buy to get out. That is the fuel under this tape. The overnight tape agrees. Wall Street ripped, the Nasdaq up 3.07 percent and the S&P 1.65. Crude is quiet, Brent at 83. The rupee firm at 94.71. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23930, back under 24000 for a third run at resistance. Watch IT, the lone red sector yesterday, with the Nasdaq up 3 percent it could be today's surprise buyer. The board says buy weakness. The call writers did not blink, they piled another 87 lakh contracts on 24000 and it now holds a record 1 crore 92 lakh written calls, the heaviest block on the board. Below, the old sellers flipped, 23800 and 23700 are support now, the real support 23500 at 1 crore 8 lakh. The straddle near 168 prices a move of about 168 either way, an expiry band of roughly 23686 to 24022. The switch, the gamma flip, sits near 23900, above it the desks pin and dampen, below it moves get amplified. It is expiry, that premium melts through the day, so sell premium, do not buy options. The plan, three steps. One, do not chase the open, yesterday the open was the high, buy the pullback into 23800 down to 23750 with 24000 the first target. Two, take a piece off at 24000, only a 15 to 30 minute hold above opens 24100 then 24150. Three, deeper dips into 23700 to 23500 are the strong-hands add on support. The continuation breaks only below 23700 for half an hour. Chase the spike into resistance on expiry and you can lose half your premium to nothing but the clock. The honest risk is 24000 itself, freshly reinforced. A market that failed there once can fail again and pin straight back to 23800. Buyers pulling up, writers pressing down, 23900 the hinge. Respect it. Episode 60 graded 3 of 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Stream free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. Data from NSE, BSE and NSDL.

S2EP60 | Second Gap Up. Buy The Dips. 24000 Decides | 15th June Monday

On Friday this market did something it had not managed in a week. It tore straight through the ceiling. Nifty closed 23622.90, up 461 points, almost 2 percent, with the entire move packed into the last 90 minutes. The Sensex ran 1695 points to 75527.95. And the desk sitting short two and a half lakh contracts had one job that afternoon, cover while it is cheap. It bought back just 23000 and stopped, betting the peace rally would cool over the weekend. The weekend just answered. Crude fell again, Korea jumped almost 5 percent, Japan five and a half, and GIFT Nifty points to a second gap up of 360 points. The read today is simple and has not changed in three sessions. You buy the dips. Friday's strength sat right. Banks led, financials topped the table up 3.15 percent, the bank index ran 2.97 and realty 3.5. Bajaj Finance added 5.56, HDFC Bank 3.73, Axis 2.92. Only IT finished red, down a tenth, still flashing sell. The VIX crushed almost 6 percent to 14.72, and the rupee finally confirmed at 95.08, its best day in months. The driver is one word, peace. Trump's Iran settlement pulled the war premium out of crude, and it did not stop, Brent is down another 4 percent to 83.69, the US benchmark under 81. Lower oil is a direct gift to an importing economy, a lower bill, a stronger rupee, more room for the Reserve Bank. The US 10 year yield slipped to 4.43, and Asia took the baton, Japan up 5.53, Korea 4.70, Taiwan 2.68. The positioning tells you why you buy dips and don't fade this. The foreign desk is still short 243623 index futures, having covered just 23000 on a 2 percent up day, and it is short the calls and long the puts on top, a fully hedged bear book. The proprietary desks, the money that flips first, are sitting long futures and long both option sides, paid for the move. Retail is piled long with 1.8 lakh futures and a stack of sold puts. The only bearish player left in the building is the one desk trapped short, and that is fuel, not a warning. A short that refuses to cover does not escape the move, it pays for it later. The board says buy weakness. The big number is 24000, holding 1 crore 5 lakh written calls, the heaviest block on the board and a round ceiling just above the open. Below, the old sellers flipped to support, 23800 at 63 lakh and 23700 at 41 lakh. The floor is concrete, put writers planted at 23400 with 93 lakh, 23500 with 85 lakh, 23300 with 89 lakh. Two puts written for every call, a bullish tilt, and Tuesday's at the money straddle near 280. The plan, three steps. One, buy the dips into 23850 to 23750 with 24000 as first target, do not chase the gap. Two, take a piece off at 24000, only a 15 to 30 minute hold above opens 24200 then 24500. Three, deeper dips into 23650 to 23500 are the strong-hands add, on the put-writer floor. The continuation breaks only below 23400 for half an hour. The honest risk is the settlement holding. A fresh Iran headline and crude back above 90 unwinds it, and a 360 point gift is also 360 points of air below entry. IT is the one tell not confirming. Buy the dips, keep the stop honest at 23400. Episode 59 graded 2.5 of 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Stream free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. Data from NSE and BSE.

S2EP59 | Gaps Up Into The Ceiling. 23500 Decides | 12th June Friday

At 3:30 on Thursday the Sensex expiry settled at 73832, after the 73500 cushion held its first test by just 19 points. The board went quiet for the week. Then overnight the world ripped. Korea rose 7.77 percent in a single session, Japan added 3.8, the Nasdaq bounced 2.54 percent after two days of tech selling, and GIFT Nifty points to a gap up of roughly 250 points, an open near 23400, straight into the ceiling that option sellers spent two days building. One desk walks into that open short 267000 index futures contracts, with a whole weekend to carry. Thursday looked calm and was not. Nifty closed 23161, down 53, between 23072 and 23327. The Sensex tested 73519, held, climbed to 74394 by lunch, then got sold 560 points into the 73832 settle. Underneath, 992 stocks advanced and 2439 declined. IT fell 1.6 percent with Infosys down 2.7, banks held flat, media popped 1.8, and the rupee slipped to 95.76, its weakest in over a year. VIX stayed flat at 15.6. The levels for today. 23200 was the lid all week, and a gap above it turns the lid into a springboard. The ceiling starts at 23300 with 58 lakh written calls, 23400 holds 54 lakh, and 23500 is the biggest block on the board at 72 lakh. Below, put writers added 26 lakh fresh puts at 23100 and 24 lakh at 23000, which now holds 70 lakh, the anchor. The box for Tuesday's expiry reads 23000 to 23500, and the gap opens in its top floor. The plan in three steps. One, if the first 30 minutes hold above 23300, buy dips into 23300 to 23250 with the 23500 ceiling as target, wrong after 30 minutes back below 23200. Two, a straight spike into 23450 to 23500 in the first hour is for selling the rise, and breakout longs only count above 23500 after a 15 to 30 minute hold, which opens 23600 and 23700. Three, a 30 minute close back under 23200 means the gap was a trap, and 23100 then 23000 come fast. The simpler trade sits in the option prices. Tuesday's at the money straddle closed at 301 points, and the gap will fatten the call side at the open. Do not buy the excitement. If the box sets by noon, Friday afternoon belongs to the premium sellers, because an option sold on Friday collects Saturday and Sunday, two days of time value, while the market is shut. The positioning twist runs a fifth day. Foreign institutions covered barely 5000 contracts and stay net short 267000 index futures, only 10000 off Monday's peak, while selling another 2249 crore of cash shares. Domestic institutions bought 4365 crore, a twelfth straight day. Proprietary desks sit nearly flat with options on both sides. Retail stays long 2 lakh futures and short 7.7 lakh puts. A 250 point gap against that crowded short is marked to market tonight. Real covering, above 25000 contracts, is fuel above 23400. Crude helps, with Brent cracking under 90 to 89.27 as the war premium unwinds. The rupee at 95.76 does not confirm the party. Respect both. Episode 58 graded 3.5 of 4 calls. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Stream free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. Data from NSE and BSE.