The post-Trump GOP: A reckoning or a retconning

"Distrust in institutions is not necessarily unhealthy"

Yesterday, I was delighted to speak with Colleen Shogan [https://substack.com/profile/330958372-colleen-shogan], the former Archivist of the United States and current head of the In Pursuit [https://substack.com/profile/400799381-in-pursuit] project at More Perfect [https://www.joinmoreperfect.us]. If you didn’t get to listen, I hope you’ll watch above. Among the topics we discussed: the @smotus report is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. * What is the cause of Americans’ declining trust in their governing institutions (which has been going on for decades), and to what extent is distrust healthy in and even vital to a democracy? * To what extent can basic competence by governing officials restore Americans’ faith in their government? * Does our polarized two-party system make America ungovernable? Are there reforms that could either change the party system or change governing systems to make things more manageable? * How does populism contribute to distrust, and how long has it been a presence in our political system? I think you’ll enjoy the conversation! And by all means check out the In Pursuit [https://www.inpursuit.org] project, including its podcast [https://www.inpursuit.org/podcast]. (I enjoyed this conversation with Jack Rakove about James Madison’s political strategizing.) As Colleen mentioned in our discussion, they’ve got an upcoming piece on Abraham Lincoln’s presidency written by Barack Obama. It’s not to miss! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe [https://smotus.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

The post-Trump GOP: A reckoning or a retconning

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit smotus.substack.com [https://smotus.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_7] I’ve been writing and giving a number of talks lately on the modern Republican Party — how it got to where it is today and how it operates in the Age of Donald Trump. A question I often get from people is, What comes next? What does the next presidential contest look like when Donald Trump isn’t a part of it? Where does the party go from here? I have an array of thoughts on this, but I was particularly honored to be joined by Jonah Goldberg [https://substack.com/profile/4350832-jonah-goldberg] of The Dispatch [https://thedispatch.com/author/jonah-goldberg/], who has a deeper knowledge of modern American conservatism than just about anyone else alive. The full recording above is pay-walled after around 10 minutes, but I do encourage you to listen to the whole thing. Among the issues we discussed: * The extent to which Donald Trump is still a kingmaker in the 2028 Republican presidential nomination contest, and how much JD Vance can hope to inherit Trump’s mantle. * What becomes of the MAGA coalition in a post-Trump world. I tend to see MAGA as the inheritor of a conservative populist movement that has been around for decades and I don’t think that’s going anywhere any time soon. Jonah agrees but sees a world where those who argue for more traditional conservative stances having a larger voice than they do now. (The 2024 Republican presidential primary debates sans Trump were instructive.)

Billionaires, conspiracies, and the vibes economy

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit smotus.substack.com [https://smotus.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_7] Thanks to Brian Beutler [https://substack.com/profile/1323991-brian-beutler] of Off Message [https://open.substack.com/pub/brianbeutler] for joining me on Thursday for a really rich discussion about some key issues plaguing US politics today. Some things we spoke about: * Left conspiracy theories about Trump assassination attempts: As Brian has written previously [https://www.offmessage.net/p/trump-brings-this-upon-himselfand], Trump in many ways brings conspiracy theories upon himself. The most recent assassination attempt and the stories invented to explain it remind us that conspiracy theories aren’t just for conservatives; people all across the spectrum can have beliefs along these lines. But rarely does a president echo and even invent conspiracy theories. * The role billionaires are playing in politics: Obviously, there has always been concern about the role the super-wealthy play in influence elections and legislation. But this role was rarely as overt and ideological as it is today.

Talking polls and politics with G. Elliott Morris

I was delighted to join G. Elliott Morris [https://substack.com/profile/479143-g-elliott-morris] for a live video chat this week. Morris runs the Strength In Numbers [https://open.substack.com/pub/gelliottmorris] newsletter, an incredibly valuable resource for generating, reporting, and analyzing the latest polling trends in US politics. We had a wide ranging conversation, covering such topics as: * What political scientists have gotten wrong (the 2016 nomination) and right (his threat to democracy) about Donald Trump over the past decade * The four types of constitutional crises [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/constitutional-crisis/] and what we’ve learned about them * The ramped up redistricting and racial backlash campaigns in the wake of the Callais decision * Narratives about the 2024 election, and how Democrats reckon with Harris’ loss * Whether sincerity/authenticity/charisma is a thing and whether the successes of Zohran Mamdani are transferrable I’m so grateful to GEM for the conversation and for all his help in launching the @smotus report [https://open.substack.com/pub/smotus] this week. Here’s his rundown [https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/deep-dive-episode-political-scientists] of the chat. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe [https://smotus.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

"Drop the F-bomb, talk about your kids, get caught with mustard on your shirt"

I had a chat yesterday with Colorado Democratic political consultant ian silverii [https://substack.com/profile/34623510-ian-silverii]. He’s the founder of The Bighorn Company [https://www.thebighorncompany.com/], and he’s worked in the Colorado House of Representatives and directed ProgressNow Colorado. He also occasionally teaches at the University of Denver and co-hosts the excellent Get More Smarter podcast [https://www.getmoresmarter.com/?utm_source=global-search]. We discussed how Democrats are interpreting the 2025 elections, what kind of candidates they should be seeking for 2026, and how those candidates should be speaking to voters. Ian’s a big “Let Democrats Be Democrats” proponent, and we get into what it means to be authentic, whether demographics are destiny, and the degree to which Donald Trump has scrambled all useful candidate advice. I hope you’ll listen in! (Podcast version available here [https://pod.link/1722125297/episode/c3Vic3RhY2s6cG9zdDoxNzkwNTAzMjg].) Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe [https://smotus.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]