The Job Apocalypse, SaaS Pricing, and the Guardrails Era

Token Maxing, Model Sovereignty, and the One Percent Problem

Unfiltered with Matt & Nige | Episode 16 🎙️ Matt and Nigel, both in the UK. The English football team still in the World Cup. The sun is shining. It’s the perfect start to another great episode. First up, AI confidence theatre. Depending on who you listen to, AI is either about to take every job, save every company, replace every app, destroy education, rebuild the economy and probably cut a hot dog in half if you ask nicely enough. This week started with ServiceNow pencils, school picnics, emotional films, plane screens, and Nigel’s latest excellent Amazon gadget purchase. Then we got into the real stuff. Jobs.Models.Token spend.AI infrastructure.Meta.Palantir.Strava.Garmin.Whoop.The NHS.And whether any of us actually know what happens next. TLDR: AI is moving fast, but most of the world is still catching up. The bubble we live in is small. The confidence is loud. And the real question is still how this becomes useful, valuable and trusted in normal life and normal work. This week on Unfiltered, Matt and Nigel get into: * US jobs numbers, tech layoffs, and Matt’s ongoing concern about what AI means for the next generation * The White House, frontier models, release timelines, access, benchmarks and the bigger question of who controls this stuff * Nigel’s reminder that we live in a bubble, and most people are nowhere near as deep into AI as the LinkedIn feed would suggest * Eleanor Werners’ “AI confidence theatre” point, and why most people are still using AI for recipes and rewriting paragraphs * Claude, Garmin, Whoop, Strava, and what happens when the interface changes * Meta using excess AI compute as a cloud business * Alex Karp, Palantir, token maxing, outcomes, and the difference between selling usage and selling value * Uber and Coinbase cutting or peaking token spend * The NHS walking reward plan, Vitality, YuLife, and why getting people moving is still one of the best ideas around Subscribe for more Unfiltered every week 🎙️ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com [https://unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

From Corgi to Alan, The Difference Between Hype and Build

Another good episode this week. First up, there are no shortcuts. Not in health.Not in insurance.Not in AI.Not in building a company that actually lasts (yup, we’re talking about Corgi again). This week started with Nigel in Germany, being followed by rain like a cartoon character, and Matt post-Hyrox, temporarily free from the tyranny of Whoop and Apple Watch data. Then we got into the insurance innovation stuff. Corgi returned.We talked Alan with their big fundraise.AIG and their portfolio paly.AI adoption.And the difference between hype that helps and hype that runs ahead of reality. TLDR: ambition matters. Hype can be useful. But the winners are still the ones who can execute, build trust, and turn noise into something that actually works. This week on Unfiltered, Matt and Nigel get into: * Life after Hyrox, going without Whoop, and remembering what it feels like to run without data * Nigel’s Neko scan, DEXA scan, and the annoying truth that every health data point still says “lift more weights” * Corgi, the latest noise, plagiarism rows, founder culture, and trucking insurance * Whether insurance startup hype is different this time, or the same film with better technology * Alan’s latest raise, prevention-led health insurance, and why Europe still has proper success stories * Firemark Ventures, IAG, and building an end-to-end disaster resilience stack * AI adoption, shortcuts, learning, and Nigel’s “say yes to AI” moment Corgi, again Corgi is still stealing headlines and we couldn’t resist getting into it. There is the ambition.The valuation.The culture.The noise. And now the argument around Papermark, copied software, apologies that were not quite apologies, and the strange irony of a business accused of copying while also suing former employees for allegedly doing something similar. It is messy.But it is also interesting. Under all the noise is the same insurance question we keep coming back to. Can they really change the industry?Or is this the same disruption story from 10 years ago, just with more AI, more capital, and bigger numbers? Matt likes the ambition. The industry needs people trying to build rocket ships.It needs founders who believe something better is possible.It needs energy. But Nigel brings it back to the line that matters. We have seen this movie before. This time, maybe we are better prepared. Insurance is still hard The technology is better now. The execution might be easier.The infrastructure is stronger.The tools are more capable. But insurance has not stopped being hard. Distribution is hard.Pricing is hard.Claims are hard.Culture is hard.Customers are hard. Underprice in a price-sensitive, high-churn segment and you can grow fast. But growth is not the same as durability. That is the test. Alan, and a different kind of story Then there is Alan. A very different founder story.A very different health insurance story.A very different European success story. Matt talks about meeting Jean-Charles years ago, when Alan was still being built. Now it has raised a major Series G and is growing fast. But the interesting bit (well for us) is not just the valuation. It is the model. Health insurance that moves into prevention.A product people actually open.A consumer experience that feels closer to everyday health management than traditional insurance. Nigel links it back to his own health data world. Neko scan.DEXA scan.Body composition.Visceral fat.Muscle.Bone density. All roads, annoyingly, still lead to lifting heavy things. Firemark and the end-to-end playbook Matt then brings up Firemark, IAG’s venture arm. This is where it gets properly interesting. Not investment as a random portfolio.Investment as a strategic system. In disaster resilience, they appear to be building across the full customer journey. Predict who is at risk.Detect when something is going to happen.Support people mentally if disaster strikes.Physically shelter them while repairs happen. That is the playbook. Not just “we invested in a company.” More like: this is the future customer experience we want to build, and these are the capabilities we need around it. We wanted cake Nigel brings back one of his favourite lines. We have all the ingredients, but we just want cake. For years, value-added services around insurance sounded good but were hard to execute. Now the technology is starting to catch up. The question is not whether insurers can add more products around the edge. The question is whether they can create useful services that sit naturally around the customer’s life, risk, health, home, travel or business. That is where this gets interesting. No shortcuts There is a theme running through the whole episode. No shortcuts. Not with Corgi.Not with Alan.Not with Sønr.Not with AI.Not with health. Matt talks about Sønr approaching ten years in September. The “ten year overnight success” feeling is real. Slow growth.Big lessons.Slog.Then suddenly, maybe, the numbers start to move. That is the bit people do not always see. The journey matters. Say yes to AI Nigel closes with the AI point. The narrative is upside down. Too much of the conversation is about jobs being removed.Not enough is about giving teams the tools they have been waiting for. Removing the copy-paste nonsense.Removing the spreadsheet shifting.Removing the boring work that gets in the way of the actual job. His phrase is simple. Raise the floor, not just the ceiling. AI first, but not everywhere. Use it where it matters.Do not use it where it does not. That is probably the most sensible line of the week. The big takeaway Hype can start the conversation. But it does not finish the job. The companies that matter will be the ones that do the hard work after the noise. Build properly.Execute well.Learn the lessons.Enjoy the journey. And, apparently, lift more weights. Subscribe for more Unfiltered every week 🎙️ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com [https://unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Corgi, Trillionaires, and the AI Reality Gap

Unfiltered with Matt & Nige | Episode 14 🎙️ Everyone wants to talk about AI changing insurance.But insurance is still insurance. Distribution is hard.Claims are hard.Profitability is hard. Well, hard to get to. And this week, Corgi became the place where all of that came together. Not the dog. But rather the VERY highly valued insurance business that has everyone talking. But the question is whether this is a genuinely new playbook, or the same playbook we saw 10 years ago, just with better technology, bigger numbers, and a much louder AI market wrapped around it. TLDR: hype can be useful. It brings capital, talent and ambition into an industry that needs all three. But hype does not pay claims, fix distribution, or make insurance easy. This week on Unfiltered, Matt and Nigel get into: * Corgi, valuation madness, and whether the hype is useful or dangerous * Why insurance is still hard, even when the tech is better * Job losses, AI adoption, and the messy gap between ambition and reality * Europe, sovereign AI, Mistral, model choice, and whether the UK can compete * Token maxing, automatic model selection, and why most people will not want to “choose a gear” Corgi, hype, and the insurance problem Matt has been going deep on Corgi. Partly because the valuation is wild.Partly because the culture is divisive.Partly because the insurance question underneath it is genuinely interesting. If a business has not had claims yet, of course the early economics can look strong. But insurance is not judged at the moment you collect the premium. It is judged when the model has to hold up. That is where Nigel brings it back to the simple point. Insurance is still hard. Technology is better than it was 10 years ago.Execution may be easier.But distribution, affordability, the protection gap, customer understanding and claims do not disappear because the story is exciting. Hype is not always bad This is the bit that matters. It is easy to roll your eyes at hype. But hype also pulls people in. Investment.Talent.Entrepreneurship.Creativity.The belief that something better is possible. In an industry full of legacy, that is not nothing. The challenge is separating useful ambition from fantasy economics. That is the line. The AI gap is getting messy Nigel is worried about the gap. Not the long-term AI future.The bit in the middle. Companies are already cashing in on the promise of AI before the technology is properly embedded across the enterprise. That creates human toil. People managing silos.People stitching tools together.People trying to manage an autonomous workforce that does not yet behave like a proper workforce. His point is simple. For the next three to five years, large organisations may need more people, not fewer, to make this work. Matt is less convinced. Still slightly in the “robots might take everything” camp. Which is fair. Europe, models, and the sovereignty question Then the conversation moves into the model race. Have Europe and the UK already lost it? Most of the frontier model power is in the US.China has its own.Europe has Mistral. But the bigger question is control. If the models, infrastructure and training data sit elsewhere, what does that mean for European companies, governments and regulated industries? Nigel sees sovereign AI becoming a strategic asset. Not every task needs the best frontier model. Some tasks may need a local model.A national model.A regulated model.A model trained for a specific context. That feels very insurance. Layers.Controls.Right tool for the right job. Manual cars and automatic AI One of the best analogies in the episode is manual vs automatic cars. Nigel’s son is learning manual because, in theory, it gives him more options. But most people do not want to think about gears. The same will probably happen with AI. Most people will not choose the model. They will ask the question, and the application layer will choose the right model underneath. Recipe? Use the simple one.PhD-level reasoning? Use the serious one.Insurance research? Route it properly. That is where this gets interesting. The communications problem Nigel also brings back the AI backlash point. Data centres.Job losses.Executives using phrases like “low-value human capital.” That is not a technology problem. That is a communications problem. These are people.Families.Mortgages.Careers. If the industry wants people to come with it, it needs a better story than “efficiency.” The human ending Matt is preparing for Hyrox Worlds and seems genuinely, dangerously excited. Nigel is off for a Neko scan and preparing to feed the results into his Health OS. Matt has had a Sunday roast in 21 degrees because that is what Brits do. Nigel is barbecuing, probably in the rain. These boys. Living the life. The big takeaway Insurance is still hard. AI does not remove that. But it might change who can move fastest, who can execute best, and who can turn hype into something real. Subscribe for more Unfiltered every week 🎙️ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com [https://unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Shipping is Easy, Adoption is Hard, Conference Season Edition

Unfiltered with Matt & Nige | Episode 13 🎙️ Everyone is looking for ‘the next big thing’ at conferences.Most of the time, what you actually need is simpler. Maybe it’s signal.Context. Or sometimes just connection. The gap is still the same.The headlines move fast.The industry moves slow(er).Regulated adoption is slower still. TLDR: The best events are not always the biggest. They are the ones that create real conversations. And the best insight still comes from real conversations, not the noise or hype. This week on Unfiltered, the two talk all things: * Choosing the right event format, because you cannot do everything and “everything is going on everywhere all at once” * Stone Point’s AI Insurance Symposium, smaller, one stage, focused, and brilliantly useful * Separating hype from reality, and why hearing where customers really are still matters most * Scout Conference, the concierge, white glove introduction service at scale * Legora in Barcelona, a rocket ship legal AI business, and the parallel to Sønr 2.0 * AI liability, bundled vs standalone, and why people still do not understand the risk properly yet The only conference format that keeps working You do not need more events.You need the right ones. Smaller.Curated.One stage.Good audience.Actual conversation. Not because panels are ‘bad’.But because most people are still doing the boring work, while the internet shouts breakthrough. Scout, and why it feels different Matt’s description of Scout: You get swept up. In a good way.Introduced to others, with context.Synergy created properly.Then the Scout team disappears back into the shadows. At 500 people, it is magic.At 10,000 people, can it stay in play? The adoption gap, again Model companies are launching at a rate of knots.Most organisations cannot adopt at that speed, especially regulated industries. So the work becomes governance and controls.Not as the boring blocker but as the thing that lets you move safely. Legora, and the ‘wait a minute’ moment Matt headed to the Legora stand in Barcelona. One of the main sponsors.Gets a demo.Walks away thinking there is an inordinate amount of parallel to what they’re building with Sønr 2.0. Just in a different space. If a rocket ship business is building in that pattern, you are probably pointing in the right direction. AI liability, early market shape Nigel calls out the Allianz US view on AI liability - it gets bundled and not a standalone class like cyber. Nigel’s view is the opposite.Too niche. Too misunderstood. Too early.It probably does become its own space while people work out what it even means. The human ending Matt is doing the family thing properly. Ish.Cooking. Friends. Then a weekend or work! And next week, a seven hour round trip to take family to a hospital appointment, because that is what you do. Nigel is taking a break. First one in years. Seville. Hot. The big takeaway The winners are the ones who can turn speed into adoption, with controls that let them move, not freeze. Subscribe for more Unfiltered every week 🎙️ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com [https://unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

The Job Apocalypse, SaaS Pricing, and the Guardrails Era

Unfiltered with Matt & Nige | Episode 12 🎙️ London is a thousand degrees. Maybe more. Nigel has already been to the gym #hero Training chat. Life chat. A bit of Barcelona. And then into the good stuff. This week the conversation talks the “job apocalypse” narrative. The SaaS apocalypse narrative. The constant cycle of “everything’s broken. Woah, that’s all sounding a whole load less upbeat than it actually is. TLDR: the hype loops are getting faster, but the fundamentals still matter.And the real question is not whether the cycle turns.It’s whether there are still jobs on the other side of it. This week on Unfiltered, the two talk all things:1. The “job apocalypse” narrative and why these cycles keep repeating, but faster 2. Subscription versus usage pricing and why SaaS might have to rethink everything3. The bubble reality check4. Guardrails in life and guardrails in tech, because without them you just meltand the quiet reminder that switching off is now a skill, not a luxury The apocalypse narratives (and why they keep coming back) Nigel’s take is simple. We’ve heard this before.SaaS is dead. AI kills everything. Jobs are gone. The sky is falling. Then three months later, everyone rebounds.Because the fundamentals are still good.The businesses that matter still have distribution, data, workflows, and customers who cannot just switch their world off overnight. But Matt brings the human point. He hopes it’s true. If the job story breaks the wrong way, that’s not a headline. That’s real life. And it’s not a great look for any of us if the outcome is needing “generational wealth” so we can survive the future. Subscription versus usage: the uncomfortable pricing question This is a really interesting space. If your product is getting hammered with usage, charging per usage is a beautiful model.If it isn’t, a subscription model starts to look like a comfort blanket. The shift is already happening in AI and it forces SaaS to ask a slightly brutal question:Are you charging for value, or are you charging because you can? The bubble moment: “My mate has never used ChatGPT” We live inside a bubble. We read the threads. We talk about agents, orchestration, governance, and new operating layers like it’s normal. Then you meet someone outside the bubble and they ask:“What is SaaS?”Or they haven’t opened ChatGPT once. It’s refreshing. It’s grounding. And it’s the reminder that mass adoption is always slower than the loudest people think. Guardrails are the theme, whether you like it or not Nigel says it outright. He needs guardrails in life.Food. Apps. Browsing. Time limits. Tab limits. The whole thing. Because without guardrails, you overdo it. You scroll. You snack. You measure everything. You record everything. You do everything except actually unwind. Matt agrees and pushes the “switch off” bit.Sometimes the best thing you can do is leave the headphones behind, hear the birds, speak to another human, recall your dog. And that’s the bigger point of this episode. Not “AI is good” or “AI is bad”. It’s that the pace is faster, the loops are tighter, and if you don’t build guardrails, the cycle eats you. The big takeaway The apocalypse narratives are loud.The cycles are real.And they’re speeding up. But the winners will not be the ones shouting the loudest.They’ll be the ones who can keep a grip on fundamentals, adapt pricing and value models, and build guardrails for people and systems so the upside doesn’t come with burnout. Subscribe for more Unfiltered every week 🎙️ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com [https://unfilteredwithmattnige.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]