The People Who Got This War Wrong Set Your Interest Rate

The People Who Got This War Wrong Set Your Interest Rate

Neil Woodford on the war the market refuses to price. Missiles are hitting the Gulf, America is back at war, and the S&P 500 finished the week up 1%. The institutions that modelled this conflict predicted catastrophe. The market looked at the same war and said no. One of them is wrong. Jon and Neil unpack the biggest forecasting failure since Brexit: how the IEA, the Bank of England and the EIA all got the oil shock wrong, and how the market repriced the war line by line while the models stood still. Neil explains why complex economic models fail structurally, what he uses instead (one number, no model), and the scenarios that would prove him wrong, from a Bank of England rate rise to the closure of a second strait. 🔗 Links & Resources * Read Neil's companion piece, Truth Is Ever to Be Found in Simplicity:  * The Noise Cancelling app, new this week: https://apps.apple.com/app/id6784789879 [https://apps.apple.com/app/id6784789879]  * Visit https://www.noisecancelling.co/apps [https://www.noisecancelling.co/apps] for more information About The Noise Cancelling Podcast Neil Woodford and Jon Adair cut through financial noise: what moved, what it means, and what would change their minds. Hosts: Neil Woodford, Jon Adair Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ncwithnw [https://www.youtube.com/@ncwithnw]

London Isn't Dying — It's On Sale. Here's Where To Look

UK stocks are being taken private at a record pace: this year, takeover bids for London-listed companies have run at roughly £60bn against under £600m raised in new IPOs, and Neil Woodford argues that this wave of M&A is the clearest sign in years that UK equities are undervalued. In this episode, Woodford and Jon Adair break down why the FTSE and London stock market trade at such a deep discount to the US, what a 75% takeover premium reveals about UK share prices, whether British stocks are cheap or a value trap, and where Woodford sees value across UK banks, oil and housebuilders. We posted a companion explainer on the cyclically adjusted PE ratio – what CAPE is, why the US reading of 42x matters, and how to read it: https://www.noisecancelling.co/read/what-the-shiller-cape-tells-you-about-the-next-ten-years [https://www.noisecancelling.co/read/what-the-shiller-cape-tells-you-about-the-next-ten-years]

Three Central Banks Made the Same Mistake in One Week

Oil hit $144 a barrel in April, the highest price ever paid for physical crude, and underlying inflation barely moved. This week, Neil Woodford explains why the oil price doesn't work the way most people think, and why three central banks tightened into a shock that was already reversing. Jon and Neil mark Neil's December calls honestly (the wins and the misses), then get into the mechanics: why paper barrels set the price, not physical ones; the difference between headline and core inflation; and the base effects that mean the inflation number scaring central banks is about to fall on its own. Then the mistake. The ECB raised rates the day before the peace process went public. The Bank of Japan gets Neil's sympathy as the one bank tightening into genuine wage inflation. And in Washington, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh has picked headline inflation as his fight; Neil takes the 4.2% apart and explains why the September hike never arrives, and why the Bank of England may cut before year-end. Neil also names the one number that would prove the whole call wrong.

The Three Forces About to Crush Inflation

Inflation just hit a three-year high, and the consensus has decided the era of cheap is over for good. Neil Woodford thinks that's exactly wrong — and that the inflation in the headlines is mostly one war showing up in the oil price. Jon Adair and Neil Woodford take apart the Financial Times' "end of cheap" argument and make the case that three of the most powerful deflationary forces in modern history are building at the same time — and that a single oil shock is hiding all of them. In this episode: * The difference between a supply shock and structural inflation, and why almost everyone confuses the two * China's $2 trillion trade surplus, and why it has no choice but to keep exporting deflation * Why the energy market is heading for a glut, not a shortage * How the collapsing cost of AI and the rise of humanoid robots pull prices down * What it means for interest rates, bonds and equities if Neil is right — and what would prove him wrong

Why Britain Can't Build a Trillion Dollar Giant

This week, a single American memory chip company became worth more than AstraZeneca, HSBC and Shell combined. So why has Britain never built one of its own? Neil Woodford has spent more than 30 years as one of the largest shareholders in some of Britain's biggest companies. He was a top-five holder of GSK for over a decade. He helped see off Pfizer's bid for AstraZeneca. He's sat across from board after board, telling them what they had to do to be worth more. In this episode of The Noise Cancelling Podcast, he tells the story of how Britain keeps building world-class companies and then throws them away. We cover: 🔹 Why scale isn't the answer (Taiwan built TSMC; South Korea built Samsung and SK Hynix, both worth over $1 trillion) 🔹 The corporate governance trap: why the average FTSE 100 CEO lasts under four years 🔹 BP's third chairman in three years, and what it tells you about UK boards 🔹 The Glaxo (GSK) story: more than fifteen years as a top shareholder, shouted down, sold in frustration in 2017, vindicated five years too late 🔹 AstraZeneca and the 2014 Pfizer bid at £55 — and what's happened to the share price since 🔹 The three things Neil looks for to separate businesses that compound from businesses that waste themselves 🔹 Why Simon Wolfson at Next is the gold standard of British corporate leadership 🔹 How Micron earned its place in Neil's AI picks and shovels thesis 🔹 Whether Britain can ever produce its own trillion dollar company The Noise Cancelling Podcast is a weekly show with Neil Woodford and Jon Adair. Each week we take a piece of confusion in the financial press, teach the mechanism behind it, and give Neil's specific view on what it means for investors. If you got something from this, please subscribe. It helps the channel more than you'd think. And leave a comment below with the British company you reckon should have been a global giant but never made it. Important: Nothing in this video is investment advice. Companies are discussed for educational purposes only. You should consult a regulated financial adviser before making any investment decision. #NeilWoodford #UKStocks #Investing #FTSE100 #StockMarket