Behind the Balance Sheet

#58 The Chart Guy - $4tn CIO Michael Cembalest on markets, AI and the impending rout in US Treasuries

Michael Cembalest chairs the Market and Investment Strategy group at JP Morgan Asset and Wealth Management and effectively oversees $4tn AUM. He is responsible for market and investment insights across the asset management business and has produced the famous Eye on the Market publication for over 20 years now. We discuss AI, which formed the bulk of his most recent annual edition, why he believes Open AI is a weak link and why he thinks the Treasury market will have a crash, but not yet. Cembalest is known for his charts and he picks both his favourite and his least favourite charts. Michael is one of the most in-depth macro analysts I have met and it’s his depth as well as his breadth of knowledge which is truly impressive. We recorded in JP Morgan’s amazing new office in New York, check out the photos in the show notes [https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcast]. Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips. For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠⁠⁠website⁠⁠⁠⁠ [ https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts/]. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

#57 The Behavioural Scientist - Rory Sutherland on Marketing, What Analysts Miss and Behavioural Economics

Rory Sutherland is the Vice Chairman of advertising giant Ogilvy UK, a behavioural scientist, TED speaker, organiser of the Nudgestock conference and so much more. Most important, he is one of the most original thinkers around. In this wide ranging conversation, he explains what accountants and analysts miss, why he believes family-owned businesses are long term winners, two reasons to own Costco, his views on luxury brands, why he thinks electric cars could reshgpae industries, what short selling has in common with behavioural science and much, much more. Rory is not an investor but there are some tremendous insights here for investors to take away. Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips. For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠⁠website⁠⁠⁠ [ https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts/]. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

#56 The Sculptor - Jonathan Tepper on 16 Stock Portfolios, Moats & Buying Oligopolies

The title “The Sculptor” is a play on a quote “every man can be the sculptor of his own mind”, as Jonathan Tepper is uniquely self-educated. Brought up in the slums of San Blas in Madrid, partly home-schooled, he made it to Oxford as a Rhodes scholar. Tepper is a relentless learner, endlessly curious and in love with investing – as he sees it, you never stop learning and every day is an opportunity to learn. In this episode we discuss his childhood, as recounted in his new book Shooting Up; how curiosity and a desire to learn can transform your opportunity set; and we trace his investment journey, from a start as a junior analyst at Steve Cohen’s firm, through building a highly successful sellside research company to setting up his investment firm Prevatt Capital. He explains why he holds just 16 idiosyncratic stocks and what he looks for in a successful investment. Tepper has had a fascinating journey and has achieved more in just over 40 years than many do in a life of investing – his is a wonderful story. Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠ [ https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts/]. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

#55 The Pugilist - Terry Smith on Quality, Valuation & Long‑Term Compounding

Terry Smith is the fund manager the professionals love tohate. A billionaire, he is in the third and most successful phase of a varied career. He trounced the index for years with a simple mantra of buy good companies, don’t overpay, do nothing. He thus built one of the largest funds inthe UK, made himself a fortune and moved to Mauritius. None of this made him popular with his peers and after 5 years of underperforming the S&P500 (his global fund has been mainly invested in the US) and underperforming the world index in 2025, there is quite a bit of schadenfreude around. Smith used to box for fun and you wouldn’t want to be on thewrong side of him, but in this interview, he reveals a side less often seen. He confesses to being unable to sleep at night, worrying about stocks and expresses an extreme desire to do the best for his clients. Smith has been incredibly successful as an analyst, as a public company CEO and now as a fundmanager. He attributes it to hard work and a strong desire to succeed, driven by his background – Smith comes from a poor family and grew up in a house with an outside toilet. He is frustrated with his recent performance but is resolutethat he has the right approach and will prevail eventually. Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠ [ https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts/]. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

#54 The Innovation Fans - James Anderson & Morgan Samet on Finding the Next Ten‑Baggers

James Anderson, former Senior Partner of Baillie Gifford and early backer of Elon Musk, now runs the Lingotto Innovation Strategy with Morgan Samet. I interviewed them in front of a live audience at Italian Tech Week, hence this shorter than usual episode. We discussed AI of course, China’s role in a portfolio as a leader in many areas of tech but with associated geopolitical risk, the future of autonomous driving, what it means to be a long term investor in innovation, investing in everything from start-ups to Nvidia and in between including Space X, flying cars and much more. I really enjoyed this conversation and I hope you will too – let us know if the shorter format is a better option for busy commuters. Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠ [ https://behindthebalancesheet.com/podcasts/]. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.