NRIX Stock: Nurix Tripled After a $700M Roche Deal — Is the Good News Already Priced In?

NRIX Stock: Nurix Tripled After a $700M Roche Deal — Is the Good News Already Priced In?

Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) Q2 FY2026 — Nurix Therapeutics reported a fiscal Q2 net loss of $(0.81) per share on ~$9M of collaboration revenue — but the story is the June Roche partnership on its BTK degrader bexobrutideg ($700M upfront, up to $2.3B), which lifts pro-forma cash to ~$1.14B and has driven the stock ~200% off its lows to near $25. Nurix is a clinical-stage protein-degradation biotech with no product revenue — so we value it on cash + deals + pipeline, not earnings. After the transformational Roche deal it has a ~$1.14B pro-forma cash fortress (covering ~45% of its market cap), a 50/50 US stake in a validated BTK degrader, and wholly-owned pipeline optionality. But after a triple to 52-week highs, our sum-of-the-parts lands ~$26 vs the ~$25 price — de-risked, but a speculative HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, DE-RISKED, SPECULATIVE) — base-case value ~$26 vs ~$25 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 FY26: collaboration revenue ~$9M; net loss ~$(89.5)M, or $(0.81)/share; R&D ~$88M; burn ~$90M/quarter - Cash $443.5M at quarter-end (pre-Roche); pro-forma ~$1.14B including the $700M Roche upfront (lands next quarter); no debt - Roche deal (June 2026) on bexobrutideg (BTK degrader): $700M upfront, up to $2.3B total, 50/50 US co-develop & profit split, tiered ex-US royalties - Pipeline: bexobrutideg (Roche-partnered, pivotal Phase 2 + Phase 3); NX-1607 (wholly-owned oral CBL-B IO) + a second wholly-owned degrader - June EHA data: response rates in the 80s-low-90s% in relapsed CLL/SLL with encouraging durability — the validation that drew Roche - Additional partners: Sanofi (STAT6, milestone this quarter), Gilead (IRAK-4, Phase 1), Pfizer (degrader-ADCs) - Market cap ~$2.5B; enterprise value ~$1.35B pro-forma; stock ~$25, up ~200% off the lows, near 52-week high ($25.08) - Analysts: ~15/16 Buy, average target low-$30s (~25-30% upside), high $45, low $25 - Sum-of-the-parts (cash + risk-adjusted deal + pipeline): base ~$26 vs ~$25 price — roughly fair; the risk is binary clinical-trial outcomes What to watch: the bexobrutideg pivotal (Phase 3) trial data, the two wholly-owned pipeline programs (NX-1607, second degrader), and any new pharma milestones Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

WDFC Stock: WD-40 Crushed Earnings and Popped 15% — But Is a Cult Brand Worth 40x?

WD-40 Company (WDFC) Q3 FY2026 — WD-40 grew fiscal Q3 sales 24% to $195M, delivered adjusted EPS of $2.33 (GAAP $2.24) that crushed the ~$1.58 estimate, raised full-year guidance and added a $100M buyback — sending the stock ~15% higher to a fresh all-time high near $276. WD-40 is a genuinely wide-moat cult brand — ~85% awareness, 56%+ gross margins, real pricing power, and a global runway — that just posted a clean beat-and-raise. There's nothing wrong with the business. The problem is the price: after a ~15% pop to ~$276 it trades at ~40-44x earnings for a 6-9% grower, and our owner-earnings DCF lands near $160. So this is a quality-at-too-rich-a-price HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, PRICED FOR PERFECTION) — base-case value ~$160 vs ~$276 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: net sales $195.1M (+24%, +20% constant currency); adjusted EPS $2.33 (+51%), GAAP EPS $2.24 — both crushed ~$1.58 est - Clean beat (real sales + operating leverage, not a one-timer); the sole adjustment REDUCED GAAP EPS - By region: Americas $101M (+29%), EIMEA $67M (+17%), Asia-Pacific $27M (+24%) - Maintenance products 97% of sales (+26%); gross margin 56.6%; operating margin ~20.7% - FY26 guidance RAISED: constant-currency sales +6-9%, adjusted EPS ~$6.05-6.35 (mid $6.20); +$100M buyback; dividend ~$4.08/yr - Balance sheet: $59M cash, ~$100M debt; ~13.5M shares; low capex cash machine - Valuation: stock jumped ~15% to ~$276 (new high) vs the $239 pre-print close; ~40x trailing, ~44x forward — a luxury multiple - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$80M FCF, +4%/+6%, 8-10%): ~$160 fair value vs ~$276 price — a large premium, priced for perfection - Note: some sales were pull-forward buying ahead of price increases; gross-margin guide was trimmed slightly on input costs What to watch: the constant-currency sales growth rate, the gross margin under input-cost pressure, and above all the valuation — wait for a better entry Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

SMPL Stock: Simply Good Foods Beat Earnings but Sales Fell — Cheap Turnaround or Value Trap?

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Q3 FY2026 — Simply Good Foods (Quest, Atkins, OWYN) beat with adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.35, but net sales fell 6% to $357M, an $82M impairment drove a GAAP loss of $(0.58), Atkins collapsed 24.6%, and full-year guidance implies a down year. Simply Good Foods has fallen ~62% from ~$34 to ~$13. It's cheap (~6x EV/EBITDA), cash-generative, and squarely in the protein-snacking megatrend with founder Joe Scalzo back as CEO — but sales and margins are falling, Atkins is collapsing, OWYN is stalling, and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a real overhang. Our DCF lands ~$12 vs the ~$13 price, so this is a show-me HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, SHOW-ME TURNAROUND) — base-case value ~$12 vs ~$13 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: net sales $357M (-6.3%); adjusted EPS $0.42 (beat $0.35, but -18% YoY); GAAP EPS $(0.58) on an $82M impairment - Brands: Quest $230.3M (+1.1%), Atkins $84.6M (-24.6% collapsing), OWYN $34.8M (+3.6% net sales but takeaway -1.3%) - Gross margin 32.5% (-390 bps); adjusted EBITDA $57.2M (-22.5%, 16% margin); marketing spend up ~16% - Balance sheet: $124M cash vs $400M term debt (net debt $276M, 1.2x EBITDA); YTD FCF ~$110M; no dividend; $213M buybacks YTD - FY26 guidance: net sales ~$1.35B (-6% to -7%), adjusted EBITDA ~$220-225M (-19% to -21%) — a down year; Q4 softer - Founder Joe Scalzo returned as CEO Jan 2026 — the turnaround is one quarter old with no proof yet - Valuation ~$13 (down ~62% from ~$34), ~6x EV/EBITDA, ~12x P/FCF — cheap only if the decline bottoms - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$110M FCF, -4%/+1%, 9-11%): ~$12 fair value vs ~$13 price — essentially fair, wide range - Central debate: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs — demand destruction for snacks vs. GLP-1 users needing more protein What to watch: the OWYN retail takeaway trend, Quest's velocity, and real-world evidence on how GLP-1 is affecting protein snacking Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

AZZ Stock: The Boring Industrial That Beat, Raised Guidance, and Jumped 7%

AZZ Inc. (AZZ) Q1 FY2027 — AZZ — North America's largest independent hot-dip galvanizer — grew Q1 sales 6.3% to a record $448.5M, beat with adjusted EPS of $1.85, raised full-year guidance on all three metrics, and hiked its dividend 20%; the stock jumped ~7% after hours. AZZ is a high-margin, essential industrial — galvanizing and coil coating that keeps steel from rusting — riding an infrastructure and reshoring tailwind. Q1 was a clean beat, it raised guidance across the board, deleveraged to 1.4x, and hiked the dividend 20%. At ~21x forward with our DCF near $155 vs the ~$144 pre-pop price (plus free optionality from its AVAIL stake), this is a quality-industrial-at-a-fair-price BUY. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, QUALITY INDUSTRIAL) — base-case value ~$155 vs ~$144 today. KEY METRICS: - Q1 FY27: sales $448.5M (+6.3%, a Q1 record); adjusted EPS $1.85 (+3.9%, beat $1.69); adjusted EBITDA $99.5M (22.2% margin) - GAAP EPS $1.72 (-70%) is optical — prior year had a ~$166M one-time gain from the AVAIL/electrical-business sale - Segments: Metal Coatings $210.3M (+12.3%, 30%+ EBITDA margin); Precoat Metals $238.2M (+1.5%, margin rising) - Net leverage 1.4x, guiding $130-170M more debt reduction in FY27; dividend raised 20% to $0.24/quarter - FY27 guidance RAISED on all three: sales $1.80-1.85B, adjusted EBITDA $375-415M, adjusted EPS $6.75-7.15 - Minority AVAIL JV stake excluded from guidance = free optionality on top of the core coatings business - Valuation ~$144 pre-pop (jumped ~7% AH), ~20-21x forward P/E, ~12x EV/EBITDA — reasonable for the quality - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$175M FCF, +4%/+6%, 8-10%): ~$155 fair value vs ~$144 pre-pop — a modest margin of safety - Demand drivers: infrastructure spending + reshoring; the main risk is a cyclical construction slowdown What to watch: Metal Coatings (galvanizing) volumes and margins, the pace of debt reduction, and the broader construction / infrastructure cycle Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

PSMT Stock: The ’Costco of Latin America’ Keeps Compounding — But Is It Too Expensive?

PriceSmart (PSMT) Q3 FY2026 — PriceSmart grew Q3 revenue 12.5% to ~$1.48B with comparable sales up 10.7%, but adjusted EPS of $1.28 landed just short of the ~$1.32 estimate and the stock — near an all-time high at ~37x earnings — dipped slightly. PriceSmart is the 'Costco of Latin America' — 57 membership warehouse clubs across 12 countries, a sticky membership annuity, a net-cash balance sheet, and a long unit-growth runway (now entering Chile). It's a genuinely wonderful business. But near an all-time high at ~37x earnings, our DCF lands around $150 vs the ~$189 price — so this is a great-business-at-a-rich-price HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, GREAT BUSINESS, RICH PRICE) — base-case value ~$150 vs ~$189 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: total revenue $1,481.8M (+12.5%); net merchandise sales +12.5% (+8.5% constant currency) - Comparable merchandise sales +10.7% (+6.9% constant currency) — FX was a tailwind of ~3.8 pts - Net income $39.7M (+12.9%); GAAP diluted EPS $1.28 — a slight miss vs ~$1.32 consensus (revenue beat) - Operating income $65.6M (+16.7%); adjusted EBITDA $90.4M; membership income $25.7M (+17.6%) - 57 warehouse clubs in 12 countries; first-ever Chile club announced (spring 2027); pipeline to 63 clubs - Balance sheet: $200M+ cash + investments vs ~$183M debt (net cash); dividend yield <1%; self-funds growth - Valuation ~$189, ~37x earnings, near all-time highs (52-wk high ~$200); cheaper than Costco (~50x) - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$165M, +4%/+6%, 8-10%): ~$150 fair value vs ~$189 price — a ~20% premium - Risks: emerging-market currency swings (double-edged), thin retail margins, a premium multiple near highs What to watch: constant-currency comparable sales (the real growth gauge), the pace of new club openings (including Chile), and the Latin American currency backdrop Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.