Episode 35: Listener Mailbag Questions!

Episode 35: Listener Mailbag Questions!

With the May-June onslaught of primaries tailing off, Decision Desk HQ thought it would be fun to do a mailbag episode addressing questions from our listeners! For this episode, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley dug deep with data and background information to answer three questions. DDHQ will definitely do more mailbag episodes in the future, so please email questions to media@decisiondeskhq.com [http://media@decisiondeskhq.com] and we will try to answer them. Thanks for the questions you asked for this mailbag and for future ones! The show started out with a question from Ryan that asked which states tend to be the fastest and the slowest at counting votes (1:35). Geoffrey used the 2024 pace of returns in each state to examine when we are likely to have most of the votes counted in some states that could be key in the 2026 election. A slow-counting state like California could be very important to the battle for control of the U.S. House, while there is definitely a chance that control of the Senate comes down to Alaska, where it could take many days to know the outcome. Next, Ramin asked about the recent situation in which a challenger with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan tried to get on the ballot in Alaska (22:21). The Alaska Division of Elections disqualified the second Sullivan, arguing that his candidacy appeared aimed at confusing voters. But Ramin also wanted to know if something like this had been tried elsewhere. And the answer is yes, in a 2020 Florida state Senate contest, a situation that Geoffrey then explored (27:44). The episode closed with a question from Barry about how much split-ticket voting may happen in Iowa if Democrats win the state’s gubernatorial race and Republicans win the U.S. Senate race (30:46). Geoffrey looked back at Iowa’s 2018 and 2022 statewide races to explore just how much or little split-ticket voting would have to happen to bring about a divided outcome in 2026. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Episode 34: What NYC's Primaries Can Tell Us About Democrats in 2028, with Michael Lange of The Narrative Wars

Among the most-watched races on June 23 will be a group of four Democratic primaries in solidly blue New York City-based U.S. House districts. These contests feature ideological splits and/or highly salient issues that could say as much about where Democrats will be in 2028 as they do about the party in 2026. To explore these primaries and the larger political picture, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Michael Lange, a close observer of NYC’s political left [https://www.michaellange.nyc/p/the-dress-rehearsal-for-2028] and author of The Narrative Wars [https://www.michaellange.nyc/] on Substack. Geoffrey and Michael began with the 7th District [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-7-democratic-primary], where longtime Rep. Nydia Velázquez is retiring (2:45). This primary mainly pits progressive Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso against state Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a democratic socialist. An outgrowth of the 2020 presidential clash between Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, this race may provide lessons about how Democrats can turn out young voters like Mayor Zohran Mamadani did in NYC’s 2025 mayoral race [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2025-11-04/new-york-new-york-city-mayor-general-election]. After this, they detoured to discuss New York’s possible pre-2028 redistricting and what it might mean for districts in New York City (12:45). They then turned to the 10th District [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-10-democratic-primary], where Rep. Dan Goldman faces a challenge from the left by former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (18:14). Goldman is an underdog in part because his political positioning — especially his views on Israel and support from AIPAC — are a poor fit for very progressive North Brooklyn, which makes up a majority of this seat. Michael and Geoffrey shifted to the 13th District [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-13-democratic-primary] in Upper Manhattan/The Bronx, where Rep. Adriano Espaillat also faces a challenge from his left (25:50). Espaillat has built a political base from the large Dominican population in this area, but now finds himself trying to win over Black voters against his democratic socialist challenger, community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier. But Chevalier has her own issues thanks to a raft of controversial past social media posts. They closed out by discussing the Manhattan-based 12th Distric [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-12-democratic-primary]t, left open by the retirement of veteran Rep. Jerrold Nadler (35:19). A crowded primary field includes Kennedy family scion Jack Schlossberg and attorney George Conway, the ex-husband of longtime Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway. But the two leading candidates appear to be two members of the state Assembly: Michael Lasher and Alex Bores. This race has centered on artificial intelligence, as a super PAC associated with OpenAI has attacked Bores because of his past support for regulations on AI — likely a pivotal issue in the 2028 election. They also briefly discussed the 17th District [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-23/new-york-us-house-17-democratic-primary] just outside of NYC, a key battleground seat in 2026 (46:04). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Episode 33: Where the Race for Congress Stands 5 Months Out, with Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the midterms fewer than five months out, we took stock of where things stand in the 2026 race for Congress. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats for power to change hands. In the House, the GOP holds a 220-215 majority that is imperiled by an electoral environment in which Democrats lead the generic ballot by around 6 percentage points. However, congressional lines have changed a lot due to redistricting. To talk about this, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Kyle Kondik [https://x.com/kkondik], the Managing Editor [https://centerforpolitics.org/kyle-d-kondik/] of Sabato’s Crystal Ball [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/] at the University of Virginia Center for Politics [https://centerforpolitics.org/]. They began by looking at the situation in the House of Representatives, where redistricting has left fewer competitive or potentially competitive seat (2:46). All told, Kyle estimates [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/taking-stock-of-the-2026-house-map-an-update/] that Republicans gained around five to nine seats from redistricting, based on the Crystal Ball’s ratings. That means that the GOP is effectively heading into November with around 225 or more seats rather than the 220 the party won in 2024. But the fly in the ointment for Republicans looks to be the electoral environment, most easily illustrated by the Democrats’ advantage in the generic ballot [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/generic-ballot/national/lv-rv-adults] (17:01). Right now, the Democrats have a big enough lead (6 or so points) to be favored to take back the House despite the GOP’s redistricting gains. Another problem for Republicans is that President Trump’s approval rating on the economy, traditionally one of his strongest issues, is actually running below his overall approval — that could lead the bottom to drop out if the GOP isn’t careful (22:10). At the same time, Democrats run the risk of having their own tea party-like moment in which they nominate weaker, out-of-the-mainstream candidates who cost them winnable seats. Kyle and Geoffrey then looked at the situation in California’s 22nd District, which illustrates some of these challenges for each side (24:56). On the one hand, Republican Rep. David Valadao only won about 41% of the top-two primary vote [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-02/california-us-house-22-primary] while his two Democratic opponents won a combined 59%. Historically, Valadao’s figure would portend defeat in the general election. However, the more progressive Democrat advanced to the general election, which might open the door to Valadao making things competitive — if that Democrat turns out to be a poor candidate. They turned to a discussion of four Senate seats, starting with North Carolina (32:05). The Crystal Ball has shifted its rating [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-senate-the-race-for-the-majority-is-not-a-toss-up-but-the-races-that-will-decide-it-are/] in North Carolina to give Democrats a slight edge, as former Gov. Roy Cooper is polling at about 50% with a sizable lead. Democrats may have a better shot at flipping that state now than blue-leaning Maine, where Democrat Graham Platner has faced a series of controversies [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-32-2026s-maine-event-with] (38:11). The Crystal Ball has also moved Ohio and Alaska to toss-up status, which speaks to how they are likely the Democrats’ best targets among the more red-leaning seats that the party has to flip to win a Senate majority (42:32). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Decision Desk 2026: Maine, South Carolina & Nevada Primaries

On June 9, four states held their regular primary elections [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/south-carolina-maine-nevada-june-9-primary-platner-collins-senate]. The top race was Maine’s U.S. Senate contest [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maine-us-senate-general-election], where controversy-laden Graham Platner won the Democratic primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-us-senate-democratic-primary] to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But there were also crowded gubernatorial primaries in South Carolina [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary] (GOP) and Maine [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-governor-democratic-primary] (Democrats), plus much more in Nevada and North Dakota. At 7:30 p.m. Eastern, we kicked off our coverage of all the primary action on the Decision Desk 2026: Maine, Nevada & South Carolina Primary Livestream from Decision Desk HQ, The Chuck ToddCast, and Chris Cillizza! We were joined by guest experts throughout the night to talk about what the results meant for November and beyond. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Episode 32: 2026's Maine Event, with Michael Shepherd of the Bangor Daily News

One 2026 election seems to keep grabbing all the headlines: Maine’s U.S. Senate race [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maine-us-senate-general-election]. There, Democrat Graham Platner keeps making news, and usually for the wrong reasons. Reports recently surfaced [https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/graham-platners-wife-flagged-sexually-explicit-texts-to-his-senate-campaign-628ec832] that reported that Platner had sent sexually explicit texts to women who were not his wife. This is just the latest in a drip, drip, drip of controversial stories [https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5904697-sexting-scandal-threatens-platner-senate-bid/] about Platner, the likely Democratic nominee to face Sen. Susan Collins. This is one of the most important Senate races [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-still-underdogs-senate-vibes] in 2026, as Collins is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. To help make sense of what’s happening in Maine, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Michael Shepherd [https://x.com/mikeshepherdME], politics editor at the Bangor Daily News [https://www.bangordailynews.com/author/mshepherd/]. They opened by talking about what people are saying on the ground and how the race got to this point (2:11). In the Democratic primary, Platner rose quickly and bested Gov. Janet Mills in polls and fundraising, prompting her to drop out (5:44). Platner has generated crowds in every corner of Maine and has been more willing to aggressively attack Collins, calling her “corrupt” — a campaign Mills would not run against her (10:00). But with Platner’s difficulties, Collins has ample material to use against him — and a ton of money at her campaign’s disposal to inform voters about his problems. Collins is an institution in Maine, having even won reelection in years when the state voted handily for Democratic presidential candidates in 2008 and 2020 (16:17). She’s used quality constituent services and a very town-by-town campaign apparatus to boost her standing. And her effectiveness as a senator has helped her consistently win over independent-minded voters and the persuadable middle. Given Platner’s difficulties, Democrats in D.C. and Maine are worried that there will be more skeletons in Platner’s closet that will sink him against Collins (25:55). If things do get worse for Platner, Maine Democrats could replace him as the Democratic nominee by choosing another candidate at a party gathering — but only if he first agrees to withdraw. Were Collins to win reelection, this would greatly constrict Democrats’ path to winning a Senate majority, perhaps making it impossible. Michael and Geoffrey closed by talking about two other races (37:58). Maine’s crowded Democratic primary for governor [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-governor-democratic-primary] is unpredictable, especially with the use of ranked-choice voting. On the Republican side [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-governor-republican-primary], former federal prosecutor Bobby Charles looks like the favorite, although the GOP also has an even more crowded field (43:38). They then discussed the competitive 2nd Congressional District [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maine-us-house-2-general-election], which is open following the retirement of Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (48:43). Republican former Gov. Paul LePage [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-us-house-2-republican-primary] may have the upper hand to take back the red-leaning seat, while Democrats have a competitive four-way primary [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-09/maine-us-house-2-democratic-primary]. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]