Episode 33: Where the Race for Congress Stands 5 Months Out, with Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball
With the midterms fewer than five months out, we took stock of where things stand in the 2026 race for Congress. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats for power to change hands. In the House, the GOP holds a 220-215 majority that is imperiled by an electoral environment in which Democrats lead the generic ballot by around 6 percentage points. However, congressional lines have changed a lot due to redistricting.
To talk about this, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Kyle Kondik [https://x.com/kkondik], the Managing Editor [https://centerforpolitics.org/kyle-d-kondik/] of Sabato’s Crystal Ball [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/] at the University of Virginia Center for Politics [https://centerforpolitics.org/]. They began by looking at the situation in the House of Representatives, where redistricting has left fewer competitive or potentially competitive seat (2:46). All told, Kyle estimates [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/taking-stock-of-the-2026-house-map-an-update/] that Republicans gained around five to nine seats from redistricting, based on the Crystal Ball’s ratings. That means that the GOP is effectively heading into November with around 225 or more seats rather than the 220 the party won in 2024.
But the fly in the ointment for Republicans looks to be the electoral environment, most easily illustrated by the Democrats’ advantage in the generic ballot [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/generic-ballot/national/lv-rv-adults] (17:01). Right now, the Democrats have a big enough lead (6 or so points) to be favored to take back the House despite the GOP’s redistricting gains. Another problem for Republicans is that President Trump’s approval rating on the economy, traditionally one of his strongest issues, is actually running below his overall approval — that could lead the bottom to drop out if the GOP isn’t careful (22:10). At the same time, Democrats run the risk of having their own tea party-like moment in which they nominate weaker, out-of-the-mainstream candidates who cost them winnable seats.
Kyle and Geoffrey then looked at the situation in California’s 22nd District, which illustrates some of these challenges for each side (24:56). On the one hand, Republican Rep. David Valadao only won about 41% of the top-two primary vote [https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-06-02/california-us-house-22-primary] while his two Democratic opponents won a combined 59%. Historically, Valadao’s figure would portend defeat in the general election. However, the more progressive Democrat advanced to the general election, which might open the door to Valadao making things competitive — if that Democrat turns out to be a poor candidate.
They turned to a discussion of four Senate seats, starting with North Carolina (32:05). The Crystal Ball has shifted its rating [https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-senate-the-race-for-the-majority-is-not-a-toss-up-but-the-races-that-will-decide-it-are/] in North Carolina to give Democrats a slight edge, as former Gov. Roy Cooper is polling at about 50% with a sizable lead. Democrats may have a better shot at flipping that state now than blue-leaning Maine, where Democrat Graham Platner has faced a series of controversies [https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-32-2026s-maine-event-with] (38:11). The Crystal Ball has also moved Ohio and Alaska to toss-up status, which speaks to how they are likely the Democrats’ best targets among the more red-leaning seats that the party has to flip to win a Senate majority (42:32).
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