The Commodity Picture

The Commodity Picture: Turning Point for U.S. Tight Oil – Output at Risk Despite Efficiency Gains

The U.S. tight oil market is at a turning point. After years of robust growth and a strong recovery from COVID, satellite-based data from Kayrros shows that production—particularly in the Permian Basin—is again at risk of decline. The signs are clear: drilling and completions continue to fall, but this time efficiency gains aren’t enough to compensate. Permian oil output is on track to decline starting as early as the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s a significant departure from the U.S. EIA’s current forecast, which expects production to remain broadly flat through 2026. So, what’s changed? Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy [https://ausha.co/privacy-policy] for more information.

The Commodity Picture: Turning point for U.S. solar

📢 The new Commodity Picture is here — spotlighting a critical turning point for U.S. solar. Kayrros satellite data shows a steep drop in solar panel installations starting late 2024, with January 2025 levels nearly 50% lower than the previous year. • Solar is highly policy-dependant and solar developers stepped on the breaks as soon as Donald Trump got elected. They didn’t wait for him to actually take office to slow down, let alone for the “One Big Beautiful Bill” to get enacted. The bill phases out solar tax credits, putting dozens of projects at risk. Developers don’t seem to have had a any doubts about what President Trump intended to do, not about his ability to deliver. • Grid reliability under pressure. In 2024, solar made up 61% of new U.S. capacity. With demand from AI and data centers surging, any slowdown could lead to electricity shortfalls — especially in ERCOT — as long as it isn’t offset by other sources. And the chances of other sources ramping up fast enough look pretty slim. • It’s not just the phasing out of tax credits that’s slowing solar. Supply chain constraints and new trade limits are also driving up costs and delaying projects. Kayrros is tracking it all in near real time. Case in point: One 500 MW project set for 2026 shows zero visible construction — and it’s not alone. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy [https://ausha.co/privacy-policy] for more information.