The Dairy Cafe

Jun 4, 2026 - dairy market outlook: plenty moving beneath a quiet surface

In this market update, the hosts discuss a more bearish tone emerging from the Eucolait conference, with noted weakness in European butter and milk powder. They review skim milk powder/nonfat dynamics, highlighting that US prices fell from just under $5,000/ton to about $4,600/ton but remain over $1,000/ton above other origins; a CME nonfat bounce is attributed to short-covering and ongoing supply concerns including product recalls and screw worm findings in Texas. European butter is described as heavy with ample production and rising stocks, forward curves weakening (e.g., October futures falling from about €4.56 to €4.30), and warehouses reported full; spot trades around €3.75–€3.78 are mentioned, with €3,500/ton possible longer term. Whey remains extremely tight with very high prices, while mozzarella in both EU and US is increasingly export-dependent and price-sensitive. MPC demand rises via reformulation amid higher protein prices.

May 21, 2026 - Why butter & cheese are bending while proteins hold the line

In this episode, Jasper and hosts discuss recent dairy market movements, focusing on butter, cheese, skim/non-fat, whey, and milk proteins. They highlight a major “protein boom” expanding from whey proteins into milk proteins (MPC 85), with April prices up about 25–30% month over month and Q2 MPC supply essentially sold out, driven by limited market size, substitution from higher-priced whey proteins, and US pricing multipliers tied to non-fat dry milk. US non-fat dry milk peaked near $2.30/lb in early May before easing, with imports expected to reduce tightness. They address how high US skim values can push more milk into Class IV, increasing butter output and pressuring butter prices. Production updates show mixed European milk intake (France down vs. 2025 but above 2024; Germany strong) and New Zealand milk solids up ~6.9% in April, signaling continued surplus. They explain butter/cheese are less export-dependent than SMP/non-fat, but rising US exports help manage surplus and support prices.

April 16, 2026 - Reading the dairy market as flush season takes hold

In this biweekly dairy update, hosts review global dairy fundamentals and market behavior. They note abundant milk supply worldwide, with January 2026 showing a 4.29% global milk surplus year over year, keeping fundamentals weak even as proteins are volatile. In Europe, France’s surplus is shrinking but still positive, Germany remains about 6.5% higher, and high milk prices (~40 cents, higher in the Netherlands) support continued production; Dutch butter appears weaker due to full storage and spot selling pressure, while Germany/France can store more. A wide Dutch spot-versus-farmgate milk price spread is driven by excess spot milk and limited processing capacity. In the US, record milk output contrasts with record-high non-fat dry milk prices (about $5,000/ton), improving butter/powder valorization and creating arbitrage incentives versus EU SMP. New Zealand also remains in surplus, with milk price and pasture growth/weather as key watchpoints. The team attributes “on edge” sentiment to extreme price volatility and thin supply-demand balance, and notes limited but growing forward activity in European WPC 80.

Mar. 19, 2026 - What’s really driving the US dairy squeeze?

In this Dairy Cafè Vesper biweekly update, the hosts review global dairy markets and a U.S. deep dive, focusing on butter, skim/nonfat powder, cheese, and whey. European butter prices fell sharply from around 4.7 to as low as 4.3, driven by fewer buyers, ample stock perception, and volatility dominated by trader volume as many buyers are covered for Q2–Q3 and looking to Q4–Q1. U.S. butter softened after a CME specification switch to fresher product, while Oceania butter was supported by GDT strength and a “safe haven” premium. Skim/nonfat powder is rising globally, led by a U.S. shortage and New Zealand demand, while Europe benefits from being cheapest and from supportive exchange rates. European whey prices jumped on strong demand for high-protein WPC80, limited whey availability tied to cheese output, and risk-driven forward buying, with limited substitution to MPC due to functionality.

Feb. 20, 2026 - An update on the global dairy market

In a biweekly dairy markets update, speakers discuss unusually high volatility early in January, led by a sharp rally in skim/nonfat dry milk prices (above $3,000/ton; futures rising from about 118 to 158 cents/lb), which also lifted other products like European butter largely through sentiment rather than fundamentals. They attribute the move mainly to a late-2025 slowdown in US milk powder production (down nearly 30% in Q4) as milk shifted to fresh packaging, milk proteins, and more profitable streams like cheese, plus some factory downtime, low liquidity, and short-covering alongside physical buying with thin procurement pipelines. They note overall US milk production is up (about 19.5 billion lbs, +3.6%), expecting some nonfat/butter production recovery, and suggest nonfat prices may ease toward just under $3,000/ton. They also highlight whey protein prices hitting extreme levels (Europe ~€16,000–17,000/ton; US ~$8.75/lb) amid persistent shortages, limited near-term capacity additions, some demand switching to milk proteins, and discussion of plant-based alternatives and future investments.