The Earnings Edge

Ep 2: Microsoft Breaks $500, Memory Sector Warning, and the Burry-Eisman AI Clash

EPISODE 2 — AUGUST 7, 2026 STORIES COVERED * Microsoft breaks $500 — First close above $500 in history (+2.58%). AI infrastructure ETFs are 2026's best performers. The "beat but selloff on capex" pattern is broken. * AMD recovery bounce — +1.65% after 2-day selloff. Rosenblatt PT $700, Argus PT $625. Analyst consensus holds. ETF inclusion confirms AMD as core AI infrastructure. * SanDisk memory warning — Record Q4 revenue ($8.97B) but stock -10% on margin sustainability fears. SK Hynix flash crash adds pressure. Memory sector as leading indicator for NVDA, AMD, QCOM, TSM. * NVDA Rubin Ultra memory pivot — The Information reports Nvidia weighing less memory on next-gen chips. Cost optimization or supply constraint signal? BNP Paribas warns China component ban risk. * Google brain drain: DiscoLoop AI — Jeff Dean + 3 senior AI leaders departing to launch DiscoLoop AI. Google in talks for $1.5B Mechanize acquisition. Structural risk that capex can't fix. * Oil rebound + energy M&A — Brent +4% on Yemen strikes. Exxon $80B Kazakhstan venture. BP acquires Calypso offshore stake. FSLR surges on polysilicon tariffs. * Burry vs Eisman AI debate — Two 2008-housing-crash investors publicly disagree. Burry calls NVDA/PLTR "future ghost towns." Eisman says "premature." COMPENDIUM THEMES * AI Infrastructure Investment — MSFT, NVDA, AMD, INTC all spending big * Capex Risk Bifurcation — Companies that can fund AI build vs those sacrificing shareholder returns * Semiconductor Demand / Memory Cycle — SanDisk selloff as leading indicator * Energy-AI Debt Collision — Higher energy costs = higher data center costs = more capex pressure * AI Talent War — DiscoLoop AI, Google buying Mechanize, human capital flight accelerating SOURCES * Benzinga (via Alpaca News API) * The Arora Report * The Information * Bloomberg * Alpaca Markets API (price data, earnings results) WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK * SanDisk Q4 fallout — margin sustainability debate, memory sector contagion watch * Google AI leadership fallout — DiscoLoop AI details, more departures? * NVDA Rubin Ultra memory strategy — analyst revisions possible * AMD analyst day — Helios architecture details * Burry vs Eisman debate — market watching for next moves

Ep 1: Intel's Blowout, Alphabet's Capex Shock, and the AI Infrastructure Race

EPISODE 1 — JULY 24, 2026 STORIES COVERED * Intel Q2 blowout — Adjusted EPS 42 cents vs 21 cent estimate. Revenue $16.1B vs $14.4B expected. 18A in volume production. Capex raised to $20B+ for 2026. * Alphabet capex shock — $205B capex guidance, 33-quarter buyback streak ended. Cloud +28% YoY but market punishes the spend. * Oracle defense contract — $7B/10-year Department of War contract. Base $3.3B for first 5 years. * AMD read-through — Lisa Su: AI accelerator TAM $1.4T by 2030. AMD +3% after hours on Intel's AI demand validation. * Brent breaks $100 — Energy-AI debt collision thesis playing out. Higher energy costs = higher data center costs = more capex pressure. COMPENDIUM THEMES * AI Infrastructure Investment — Intel and Alphabet both spending big * Cloud Growth Acceleration — Google Cloud +28% YoY * Semiconductor Demand — Intel buying 40% more tools, tailwind for ASML * Capex Risk Bifurcation — Intel (can fund) vs Alphabet (sacrificing buybacks) * Energy-AI Debt Collision — $100 oil meets AI capex explosion SOURCES * Earnings call transcripts (Intel, Alphabet, AMD) * Benzinga (via Alpaca News API) * Nikkei Asia (Big Tech off-balance-sheet AI debt study) * Alpaca Markets API