The JeffEffect

The End of Rome-Like Objects — Episode 020

Everyone is talking about “The Big Reset.” Supposedly, the forces that be want the pandemic to break down all lot of the old ways of the world … thus opening up the opportunity to foist upon humanity a new vision. The only problem with all of that is that things just don’t break like you want them to. What I’m hoping you’ll get out of this is two things: First, whenever you hear someone talk about “The Great Reset” and how The Year of the Mask “changed everything,” I want you to remember that all this year did was reveal the strengths, weaknesses, and trends that were already at work. The second is that, when it comes to “where” you do your business and what real estate markets you should invest your money, time, and energy into, The Great Migration is going to affect your decision-making … at least it should. References & Links LA Times — California population growth slowest since 1900 as residents leave, immigration decelerates: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-21/california-population-continues-to-decline-with-state-emigration-a-major-factor [https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-21/california-population-continues-to-decline-with-state-emigration-a-major-factor] Next10.or Report — California Net Domestic Migration and other Statistics https://next10.org/sites/default/files/California-Migration-Final2.pdf [https://next10.org/sites/default/files/California-Migration-Final2.pdf] Weissman Center for International Business — New York Net Domestic Migration and other statistics: https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2020/09/Paper-Series-Fall-2020-9-8-20.pdf [https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2020/09/Paper-Series-Fall-2020-9-8-20.pdf]

Where Your Dad Used to Sit — Episode 019

Where Your Dad Used to Sit An open letter essay on the small pubs and public houses across England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, and Northern Ireland are more important than you know .... along with their brother bars and taverns in the US. The government folks have no stake in the game, because they just don't understand. For them, the age of COVID — The Year of the Mask — is just another opportunity for political posturing. But you and I ... we have something to lose. Give this episode a listen. Cheers. Hat tips to: Small Paul and the Driving Wheel. Ray Charles singing a song by Stevie Wonder. The poet Dylan Thomas. The Cheers theme song by Gary Portnoy. And the unknown folk pub singers captured anonymously on tape.

Going Broke With The Jones' — Episode 018

GOING BROKE WITH THE JONES' — EPISODE 018 PODCAST NOTES AND OUTLINE. JONES ACT INTRO PRE-RECORDED BY JEFF AS A MONOLOGUE Have You Ever Split a Cab or an Uber with a friend? If the Jones Act applied to Uber drivers, this would be illegal Reasons we economists suck — the dismal science * What the heck is cabotage?  * Market Distortions * The Devil Lives at the Margins — “Concentrated Benefits” & “Diffuse Costs” MERCHANT MARINE ACT OF 1920 — THE JONES ACT 100 years ago Introduced by Wesley Jones — the senior senator from Washington State Hmmmm … and they build ships where? (hint: Washinton State!) THE JONES ACT IN A NUTSHELL All Ships Used for Cabotage * US Built * US Owned * US Flagged * US Commanded * US Staffed Other Related Issues * Insurance * Seaman Rights * Port Inspections * Etc. Often confused with the Passenger Service Act of 1886 — Discuss the difference Even NPR confused the issue in their podcast. Jeff Introduces Guest Colin Grabow (GRAY-Bō) Colin Grabow of the CATO Institute — Policy Analyst, Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies. He has a BA in international affairs from James Madison University and an MA in international trade and investment policy from George Washington University. He specializes in things like subsidizing sugar production and The Jones Act. Welcome to the JeffEffect. What did the Jones Act Attempt to Do? * Foster Shipbuilding in the US (Protectionism) * To Maintain Domestic Fleet and Shipbuilding Capacity (National Security) * Maintain an experienced Merchant Marine Workforce (Protectionism & National Security) Did it Succeed …. No, It Did Not — Jeff and Colin Discuss There are currently less than 100 Jones Act Qualifying ships. Commerce between states is negatively impacted. How The Jones Act Got on My Radar Thinking about opportunity for the local Economy — Why Apple Can’t Build Phones in Puerto Rico Why Are US-built Ships So Darned Expensive? * The irony of Asia-Pacific Shipbuilding — Being destroyed in war required that it be rebuilt from scratch. Japanese industrial base was devastated during WWII. The Korean conflict occurred immediately after WWII. Both areas were reindustrialized after the conflicts. This appears to have facilitated the construction and recapitalization of shipbuilding in these two regions. * Protectionism Breeds Complacency Every Time It’s Tried. * There is not a single LNG Tanker, Heavy Project Ship, Heavy Cargo Ship, or Cruise Ship built in the US — Zero Qualify for The Jones Act. * If ZERO qualify, what are we protecting? Anecdotes * Flying Cows of Hawaii * Road Salt in New Jersey * LNG Triangle Trade — Russia/Massachusetts/Pakistan * Oil in Houston Can’t Get to Maryland * Other Ideas and Anecdotes from Colin Complacency Revisited Transport companies that were not covered by the Jones Act have become competitive on the world stage. US Airplane Manufacturers * Boeing * Gulfstream/General Dynamics * Textron (Textron Aviation/Cessna) US Locomotive Manufacturers * GE Transportation/Wabtec * Brookville Equipment Corp. * Electro-Motive/Caterpillar US Semi-Truck and Trailer Manufacturers * Peterbuilt * International/Navistar * Kenworth/PACCAR Nixing The Jones Act Seems Like Something Everyone Could Support * Environmentalist Should Like it — more energy-efficient. * Consumers Should Like it — lower prices. * Domestic producers of commodities and manufactured goods should like it lower transport costs more competitive domestically. * Economic development of Places Like Puerto Rico Should Like It — Activate local workforce. * National Security … two sides of the coin. So, who doesn’t support it and why? Could We Further the Goals of The Jones Act other Ways? * Tax Incentives to Modernize Domestic Shipbuilding? * Expansion of the Naval Reserves? * Tax Incentives for Domestic Ownership? * Liberalization of Flagged Ship Laws? * Other Mitigating and Replacement Ideas from Colin Links and Additional Resources Spring 2015 Industrial Study Final Report on Shipbuilding by the The Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy National Defense University:  https://es.ndu.edu/Portals/75/Documents/industry-study/reports/2015/es-is-report-shipbuilding-2015.pdf [https://es.ndu.edu/Portals/75/Documents/industry-study/reports/2015/es-is-report-shipbuilding-2015.pdf] A Brief History of Shipbuilding in Recent Times, September 2002, Tim Colton and LaVar Huntzinger:  https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/D0006988.A1.pdf [https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/D0006988.A1.pdf] NPR Planet Money Podcast: Mr. Jones’ Act https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/09/27/553990861/episode-524-mr-jones-act [https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/09/27/553990861/episode-524-mr-jones-act] Jeff’s guest on this podcast is Colin Grabow — Policy Analyst, Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies at The CATO Institute. You can read his bio on the CATO Institute website here: https://www.cato.org/people/colin-grabow [https://www.cato.org/people/colin-grabow] Here is the written interpretation by Department of Customs and Border Protection of the Passenger Vessel Services Act of 1886 and the impact of NAFTA on this law. Note that NAFTA has since been withdrawn and replaced by USMCA by President Trump.  https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2019-Sep/PVSA-ICP.pdf [https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2019-Sep/PVSA-ICP.pdf] Here is an online version of the full text of the Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920): http://huelladigital.univisionnoticias.com/cruceros-vacaciones-en-aguas-de-nadie/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Jones_Act_1920.pdf [http://huelladigital.univisionnoticias.com/cruceros-vacaciones-en-aguas-de-nadie/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Jones_Act_1920.pdf] The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) paper: “Local Content Requirements and Their Economic Effect on Shipbuilding:” https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/local-content-requirements-and-their-economic-effect-on-shipbuilding_90316781-en [https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/local-content-requirements-and-their-economic-effect-on-shipbuilding_90316781-en] WSJ editorial "America First? Kill the Jones Act" (mentions LNG issue vis-a-vis Puerto Rico:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first-kill-the-jones-act-11572822910 [https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first-kill-the-jones-act-11572822910] Congressional Research Service report about the JA (fantastic overview paper): https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45725.pdf [https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45725.pdf] Russian LNG imported into New England:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/tanker-carrying-liquefied-natural-gas-from-russias-arctic-arrives-in-boston/2018/01/28/08d3894c-0497-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html [https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/tanker-carrying-liquefied-natural-gas-from-russias-arctic-arrives-in-boston/2018/01/28/08d3894c-0497-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html] Hawaii cows: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq4YQgxMquQ [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq4YQgxMquQ] My paper about the JA's impact on national security and shipbuilding:  https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/rust-buckets-how-jones-act-undermines-us-shipbuilding-national [https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/rust-buckets-how-jones-act-undermines-us-shipbuilding-national] Cato JA overview paper:  https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/jones-act-burden-america-can-no-longer-bear [https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/jones-act-burden-america-can-no-longer-bear] Hawaii importing propane from West Africa:  https://www.enverus.com/blog/dislocations-in-the-us-propane-market-and-the-jones-act/ [https://www.enverus.com/blog/dislocations-in-the-us-propane-market-and-the-jones-act/] Here is a link to the dedicated section of the CATO website:  www.cato.org/jonesact [http://www.cato.org/jonesact] _____________

B2B, B2C, & D2C Pricing and Recurring Revenue — Episode 017

Here is a rough outline of the topics in the podcast along with helpful links.  B2B, B2C, & D2C Pricing and Subscription Modeling to Maximize Revenue Growth The ProfitWell Model * Financial Plugin for data analysis * 20% of the market Basic Philosophies 3 Levers of Revenue Growth 1. Customer Acquisition 2. Customer Retention 3. Monetization Aspects 1. Positioning 2. Packaging 3. Pricing Interesting Topics Price Differentiation Raising AND Lowering Detailed Segmentation (3 to 5 personas?) … I say “student” and “veteran” pricing examples. Here is a link to the Van Westendorp Pricing Model on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Westendorp%27s_Price_Sensitivity_Meter [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Westendorp%27s_Price_Sensitivity_Meter] Do You Believe in over-optimization for profit? Over-optimization Defensive optimization (Jeff cites American Airlines and Southwest Pennsylvania example) Jeff hits his favorite punching bag of Gillette performing revenue optimization in the face of tech and cultural disruption Lessons of COVID-19 Round-Up A discussion of lesson learned since March relying on Patrick’s recent social content Here is a link to ProfitWell: https://www.profitwell.com [https://www.profitwell.com/] Here is a link to Patrick Campbell’s Twitter feed which is where Jeff found him (good stuff): https://twitter.com/Patticus [https://twitter.com/Patticus] Here is a link to the online eBook Patrick mentioned in the interview: https://www.priceintelligently.com/hubfs/Price-Intelligently-SaaS-Pricing-Strategy.pdf [https://www.priceintelligently.com/hubfs/Price-Intelligently-SaaS-Pricing-Strategy.pdf] BONUS CONTENT! Jeff and Patrick talk about the economics of moving out of the “Big Cities”: https://youtu.be/HpSuI5bMbzI [https://youtu.be/HpSuI5bMbzI] __________________

Golden Handcuffs — Episode 016

The best ideas in the world are the ones that EVERYONE agrees on. But what’s crazy is that even those universally accepted ideas are things that we still struggle with. Why can’t we let go of the stuff that’s holding us back? Why can’t we even see it sometimes? It all started with a guy selling cheese. Welcome to The JeffEffect. Here are the links and references I mention in the show: Gary Vee on Golden Handcuffs, this is a short video so watch the whole thing. But I pull the salient point from 1:30 through 2:20. https://youtu.be/uDJUB2ZnBGA [https://youtu.be/uDJUB2ZnBGA] Joe Rogan with Suzanne Santo starting at 3:45 mark. But I pulled the quote from 4:08 through 5:17 (“the money thing can trick you”). https://youtu.be/7cfaTm8Lk8I [https://youtu.be/7cfaTm8Lk8I] The story of the Camel Passing Through the Eye of the Needle: Matthew 19: 16-30 “The young man saith unto him, All these things have I observed: what lack I yet?” https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+19&version=ASV [https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+19&version=ASV] Buddhist Concept of Clinging — Buddha lived 2500 years ago. Upādāna — clinging as the point of suffering https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upādāna [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Up%C4%81d%C4%81na] How to Catch a Monkey — can we let go? (sociology and primatology) The video is poor quality and the narration is in French, but it proves an important point https://youtu.be/IHdJVzYBBOU [https://youtu.be/IHdJVzYBBOU] The Invisible Gorilla — Selective Attention (psychology and anthropology). Watch this video and be amazed. https://youtu.be/UtKt8YF7dgQ [https://youtu.be/UtKt8YF7dgQ] I wrap up the cheese story. Macy’s Stock Performance. Expand it so that you can see it for at least the last five years. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/M?p=M&.tsrc=fin-srch [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/M?p=M&.tsrc=fin-srch]