The Polycrisis

04 | Demand Destruction | Smelling the roses in Beijing

US-China relations have evolved because of the Middle East war. Trump recently made the first presidential visit to China in nine years. So what are the implications for energy and international development? And why it's not so much a  “China shock” but a “China Squeeze”. Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter [https://thepolycrisis.org/], which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry.  * Produced by Sarah Allely * Original music by Russell Stapleton * Mixed by Bethany Stewart Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com Links: Several episodes in our first season featured China-US experts: EP 1 The quiet revolution [https://thepolycrisis.org/electric-world-order-ep-1-the-quiet-revolution/] included Kyle Chan from Brookings. EP 4 Manufacturing Chimerica [https://pod.link/1884213852/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC0xODk3OTMxOQ] with Jessica Chen-Weiss and Jake Werner.  Jessica Chen-Weiss also wrote an op-ed for the Financial Times this week A Cold Peace between the US and China is good enough [https://www.ft.com/content/63aa35fe-91cf-45db-ba11-2d2e2b23b2a0] and featured on CNN discussing where the US China relationship is headed  [https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/17/world/video/gps0517-taiwan-trump-china-summit] Jake Werner's piece referred to is here A New Opening for US-China relations (Quincy) [https://quincyinst.org/research/an-opening-for-a-new-us-china-economic-relationship/] Relevant Polycrisis essays: Conscious Uncoupling [https://thepolycrisis.org/conscious-uncoupling/] , Mercantilist Deals of the Great Powers - three views on technology, decouplers, cooperationists, centrists [https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/mercantilist-deals-of-the-great-powers/]

03 | Demand Destruction | Fossil chaos and electric acceleration

Why exactly is this 2026 energy shock so different from the 1970s & 2022 shocks? Kate and Tim discuss our current energy security landscape, and outline some of the arguments made in their recent Polycrisis essay [https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/dawn-of-the-electric-world-order/], just published with Phenomenal World. They also look at whether it matters that financial markets are becoming re-enthused about renewable energy. Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter [https://thepolycrisis.org/], which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry.  * Produced by Sarah Allely * Original music by Russell Stapleton * Mixed by Bethany Stewart Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com Links: Dawn of the Electric World Order: [https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/dawn-of-the-electric-world-order/]Global shockwaves from the war on Iran are accelerating the energy transition - The Polycrisis [https://www.phenomenalworld.org/series/the-polycrisis]  May 8, 2026 Investors pile into clean power as Iran war drives push for energy security [https://www.ft.com/content/9921f2b5-c910-4cec-a50f-cad453935a1a?syn-25a6b1a6=1] - Financial Times, May 3, 2026  China's Green Tech Firms Target New Consumers Hit by Iran War Energy Shock [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-10/china-s-green-exporters-seize-on-new-markets-after-iran-war-fuel-shock?srnd=phx-industries-energy&sref=63ZrW3mM] - Bloomberg News, May 11, 2026 Chinese Electrotech is the Big Winner in the Iran War [https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/chinese-electrotech-is-the-big-winner]- Paul Krugman's Substack - April 14, 2026 Ember Global Electricity Review 2025 [https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/] - Record renewables growth led by solar helped push clean power past 40% of global electricity in 2024, but heatwave-related demand spikes led to a small increase in fossil generation.

02 | Demand Destruction | OPEC drama kings

Is the UAE's departure from OPEC mostly about Gulf geopolitics and kings defending their regimes, or the outlook for oil demand? There is, as ever, a lot of context required to answer this question. Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter [https://thepolycrisis.org/], which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry.  * Produced by Sarah Allely * Original music by Russell Stapleton * Mixed by Bethany Stewart Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com Links: Mohammed bin Zayed's Dark Vision of the Middle East -  NYT, September 2020  [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/magazine/united-arab-emirates-mohammed-bin-zayed.html] How Midnight OPEC Dealmaking Won Gulf Unity at Africa’s Expense [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-05/how-midnight-opec-dealmaking-won-gulf-unity-at-africa-s-expense] - Bloomberg, June 2023

01 | Demand Destruction | US oil is not winning the Iran war

In this first bonus episode, we discuss why the Middle East war is accelerating the destruction of demand for fossil fuels, and why the US won’t become the new provider of "geopolitically secure” oil and gas. We also argue about whether the data is sufficient – *yet* – to prove our point that this is already happening.  Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter [https://thepolycrisis.org/], which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry.  * Produced by Sarah Allely * Original music by Russell Stapleton * Mixed by Bethany Stewart Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com Links: America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war [https://ig.ft.com/global-energy-flows/] - Big Financial Times story setting out the “US is geopolitically secure energy provider” argument. With excellent data viz.  Iran War Pushes Asia to Think Twice Before Doubling Down on LNG - Bloomberg   [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/iran-war-pushes-asia-to-think-twice-before-doubling-down-on-lng?embedded-checkout=true] One of the most persuasive anecdotal demonstrations that assumptions about LNG demand now have to be completely revised. “Bloomberg News spoke to more than two dozen executives, traders and analysts across Asia, who painted a picture of a region that had been thought of as the future of LNG, but is now rapidly losing faith in the super-chilled fuel.” US is making Europe pay dearly for its half-hearted electrification [https://substack.com/@geoeconomic/note/p-195456222] - Cornel Ban, Geoeconomic newsletter. Highlights how Europe’s slow energy transition has left it vulnerable to US energy predation. Echoes some of the arguments in the Permanent Suez [https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Escaping-the-Permanent-Suez.pdf]report that Tim co-authored in early 2024.  US ambassador to Europe threatens to remove “privileged” access to LNG  [https://www.ft.com/content/6bf153e4-11af-44d5-9d1c-48b5c7ad26ef?syn-25a6b1a6=1]- FT, March 24, 2026

05 | Electric World Order | The US counterrevolution

Can the US stop the electric wave? In 2022 the US introduced its first ever set of serious climate policies. That took an unprecedented collaboration of racial justice, environment and labour interests. But oil and gas interests fought back quickly and effectively. Now the 2nd Trump administration is using sanctions, trade wars, and military power in a bid to slow the energy transition.  Guests:  Rhiana Gunn-Wright - Advisor to NY Mayor Zohran Mamdani, former climate policy program director at the Roosevelt Institute Ted Fertik  - Vice President, manufacturing and industrial policy, Blue-Green Alliance; formerly of the Working Families Party. Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter [https://thepolycrisis.org/], which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry.  * Produced by Sarah Allely * Music composed by Russell Stapleton * Mixed by Bethany Stewart Contact us at: polycrisispodcast@gmail.com