The 2026 Prediction Bingo Update: Half Right. Fully Accountable.

The 2026 Prediction Bingo Update: Half Right. Fully Accountable.

Six months ago, we made a set of predictions about AI, markets, and startups in 2026. Now it's time to see how they're holding up. Some aged surprisingly well: Google's AI search is becoming the default experience, AI specialists are going mainstream, and Canva continues its march toward IPO. Others... not so much. Along the way, we unpack the biggest surprises of the year so far: Anthropic's stunning rise, growing skepticism around vibe coding, why AI wrapper startups are disappearing, and whether investors are underestimating how quickly foundation model companies can move into every category. Then we’re coming in with a set of new predictions: physical AI, a Chinese breakout, video models, nuclear energy, and an AI-native creative studio that might just build the next MGM. So who won our bingo card check-in? The answer depends on who you ask. The views expressed on 60/40 are our own and are for informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Do your own research. Timestamps 01:22 — The Bingo Card Is Open — Maria sets the format: six-month accountability round across AI, markets, and startups. 02:27 — Gemini Is the Default (In Most Places) — Aleksey's call on Google AI mode; one market where it's literally 100% right. 06:27 — The AI Wrapper Obituary — Prashanth on why wrapper companies are gone, and where the surviving moat actually lives. 09:37 — The Two-Year Runway Problem — Maria on how even regulated, data-heavy startups now have a compression clock on them. 14:35 — Vibe Coding's Accountability Crisis — Prashanth on what he's actually seeing in engineering teams and why the 90%-done first date gets very expensive. 17:08 — Anthropic's Surprise Dominance — How the company that stood up to the Pentagon became the product people stuck with. 22:34 — The IPO Pricing Clock — Aleksey's specific prediction: Anthropic raises real prices within three to six months of IPO. 31:14 — The Most Dangerous Startup Category — Wrapping up the retrospective with a fresh scan: what's most dangerous to build right now, and why 2018–2022 vintage startups face the hardest road. 36:50 — H2 Dark Horses: Video Models and Nuclear — Peter bets on large video models; Aleksey goes long on nuclear energy infrastructure as the only serious compute scaling answer. Give us feedback or nominate topics & speakers at 6040podcast@techinasia.com.

Where is Asia’s smart money going?

Markets are up despite an oil crisis, AI capex keeps climbing, and Asia's capital allocators are making big moves. So where is the region's smart money actually going? Maria sits down with co-host Aleksey — global head of investment solutions at Leo Wealth — for a full market vibe check across the region. They get into the two camps dividing investors right now (are we in '98 or about to hit a wall?), why North Asia is eating Southeast Asia's lunch on capital flows, and the surprising case for nuclear energy making a comeback. Aleksey floats a wild idea that's gaining serious traction: a compute futures market where you can buy GPU hours the same way you buy oil. They also unpack the Manus-Meta deal fallout, debate India's perennial "almost there" problem, and try — really try — to find the bull case for Southeast Asia. Timestamps 00:00 — “If an oil crisis can’t crash markets… what can?” 00:29 — Where is Asia’s smart money going right now? 07:50 — Why Asia suddenly feels bullish again 10:46 — The uncomfortable truth about Southeast Asia’s growth story 12:47 — India vs China: why investors still hesitate 17:29 — The next big AI trade: compute futures markets 25:33 — Can Asia produce a true AI software giant? 29:22 — IPO mania is returning 37:06 — The Manus/Meta controversy explained 42:47 — Rapid fire: Japan, China, India & Southeast Asia bull/bear cases 46:23 — “I don’t have a bull case for Southeast Asia” 50:54 — What markets are still underestimating about AI Give us feedback or nominate topics & speakers at 6040podcast@techinasia.com.

The AI Talent War in Asia: Who’s winning, who’s losing, and why

AI isn’t just changing jobs—it’s splitting the job market in two. In this episode, Maria and Peter break down what’s actually happening beneath the headlines: a flat overall job market, but a 50% surge in AI-related roles—and a growing divide between those who are compounding with AI and those being left behind. They dig into: * Why the job market feels “fine” at the macro level—but is quietly fracturing underneath * The rise of the K-shaped workforce: AI-enabled winners vs. everyone else * Which roles are at risk (hint: junior, transactional, and back-office jobs) * Why layoffs aren’t really about AI… yet * How Southeast Asia’s BPO-heavy economies could be hit next * And why the hiring process itself may collapse before it gets better Plus: what individuals and companies should actually be doing right now to stay relevant. Whether you're hiring, job hunting, or just trying to figure out where the puck is going — this one's essential listening. Timestamps 00:00 — AI job demand is up 50% in one year 01:02 — Intro: AI and the future of jobs 06:15 — The split-screen AI economy 16:12 — Winners and losers in the AI talent war 19:21 — Southeast Asia’s BPO vulnerability 22:21 — Physical AI, robots, and manufacturing disruption 27:33 — Why job hunting is fundamentally broken 34:12 — Are companies chasing impossible AI unicorn hires? 37:41 — The new playbook for employers 38:55 — Practical advice for employees and recent grads 40:19 — Bull case vs bear case for AI and jobs Give us feedback or nominate topics & speakers at 6040podcast@techinasia.com.

Singapore wants to be an AI superpower. Will it work?

Singapore is going all-in on AI. From a Prime Minister–led AI council to billions in investment, talent visas, and national missions across healthcare, education, and beyond—the ambition is clear: become a global AI superpower. But ambition is the easy part. In this episode, we break down the real question: can Singapore actually pull it off? We go beyond the headlines to unpack where value in AI is really shifting—from building frontier models to deploying trusted AI systems in the real world. We explore why the future may belong not to the biggest labs, but to the fastest builders—and what that means for a small, resource-constrained nation like Singapore. We also dig into the hard parts: * Why talent is the entire game (and why it’s a double-edged sword) * Whether Singapore risks becoming a nation of AI users instead of builders * How AI could reshape jobs, industries, and the country’s economic model * And what it would actually take to build a durable, post-AI society If Singapore gets this right, it doesn’t just win in AI—it rewrites its future. Timestamps 00:00 — Cold open: Why Singapore can’t afford to miss AI 00:48 — Intro: Can Singapore’s AI ambitions actually work 05:32 — The shift in AI: from models → real-world deployment 10:30 — The 3 AI primitives: memory, browser use, payments 14:24 — Why Singapore is uniquely positioned (MAS, governance, trust) 20:30 — The talent problem (and why it’s everything) 25:39 — The risk: becoming a nation of AI users 31:35 — Local innovation: why Singapore can’t miss this wave 33:50 — The AI scholars idea: start at 18 36:25 — Advice for founders: build in Singapore? 37:25 — The future of startups: tiny teams, massive output 40:44 — AI + society: building a durable, post-AI economy 43:04 — Final thoughts: policy vs execution Give us feedback or nominate topics & speakers at 6040podcast@techinasia.com.

The SaaSpocalypse Is Here. Who Survives?

A "research memo" set in 2028 made a splash in tech and investor circles and moved markets (at least, for one day). Part thought experiment, part fan fiction, and part collective anxiety attack — the Citrini Report imagines a world where AI drives unprecedented productivity while quietly pulling the foundations out from under the modern economy. Tech stocks sold off. Investors rotated. And a question that's been simmering for years finally boiled over: what happens when AI stops assisting and starts replacing? In this episode of 60/40, we break down the SaaSpocalypse thesis, the market reaction, and the real state of AI agents — what they can actually execute today versus what we're projecting onto them. The software debate is real, but it's not the most critical one. The deeper question is about people. Specifically, the ones just starting out. When AI handles the bottom of the learning curve — the entry-level work, the low-stakes decisions, the things that used to build judgment over time — what's left? We explore what the next generation of workers is actually walking into, and which human capabilities hold their value when machines get very good at everything else. Spoiler: it's not hard skills. It's the things that have always been the hardest to teach — judgment, relationships, taste, and the ability to lead through ambiguity. Timestamps [00:00] Cold open — SaaS is not dead, but the business model might be [01:28] Intro & episode overview — markets, agents, and the future of jobs [02:56] Breaking down the Citrini Report — fan fiction or fire alarm? [06:51] The bull case hiding inside the doom — why some tech might actually be a buy right now [09:13] Not all SaaS is created equal — who survives and who doesn't [15:30] The land-and-expand model is dead. Are SaaS multiples coming back? (Spoiler: probably not) [23:04] Asia in the AI reshuffle — South Korea, Taiwan, India, and the BPO question [28:02] Introducing "Boring AI" — and what Prashanth has actually been building with OpenClaude [33:37] Agents vs. anti-bot tech — how to book a padel court (or burnt ends) using AI [40:38] Thought experiment: can AI replace your Chief of Staff? [47:03] The omnipresent AI — why the real value isn't replacing the CoS, it's making them 10x better [49:05] The waterfall model — who makes the 51/49 calls, and who gets the 60/40 ones [53:33] The 22-year-old problem — what happens to the career ladder when the bottom rung disappears? [01:02:50] AI slop, taste, and what actually differentiates human creativity [01:04:25] The pace problem — why this shift is scarier than the printing press or the internet [01:05:17] Reality check: we're probably at sub-1% global penetration Give us feedback or nominate topics & speakers at 6040podcast@techinasia.com. 60/40 is a bi-weekly podcast co-hosted by Prashanth Ranganathan, Peter Bithos, Aleksey Mironenko, and Maria Li. A podcast by Tech in Asia, a member of SPH Media.