What Just Died in Martech, and What Dies Next

Shopify Makes Most of Its Money From Payments It Doesn't Own

A breakdown of how Shopify earns its revenue, why "anti-Amazon" only fits part of the business, and what its growing payments mix means for margins. Read the full article on Substack: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/shopify-payments-revenue-stripe [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/shopify-payments-revenue-stripe] Learn more at www.ericdnoren.com. [http://www.ericdnoren.com./] Additional Links: Periodic Table of Business Strategy: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/the-2025-periodic-table-of-business [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/the-2025-periodic-table-of-business] Strategic Formula: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/strategic-formula-business-model-strategy-advantage [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/strategic-formula-business-model-strategy-advantage]

Inside AWS's Two AI Businesses, Built for Opposite Risks

AWS's $50 billion OpenAI deal protects Bedrock, not its compute business, which never depended on OpenAI to begin with. Read the full article on Substack: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/aws-bedrock-openai-deal [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/aws-bedrock-openai-deal] Learn more at www.ericdnoren.com [http://www.ericdnoren.com/].

Salesforce Chooses the Form of its Destructor

Agentforce hit $1B ARR. It's also dismantling the revenue mechanism Salesforce's subscription model depends on. A structural diagnosis. Read the full article on Substack: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/salesforce-agentforce-structural-risk [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/salesforce-agentforce-structural-risk] Learn more at www.ericdnoren.com. [http://www.ericdnoren.com./] Additional Links: Strategic Formula: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/strategic-formula-business-model-strategy-advantage [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/strategic-formula-business-model-strategy-advantage] Strategic Breakpoint Analysis: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/strategic-breakpoint-analysis [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/strategic-breakpoint-analysis]

The AI Supply Chain Starts With ASML. The Value Ends With Nvidia.

ASML holds a monopoly on the machines that make AI's chips. Nvidia is worth multiples more. The gap isn't about execution — it's about Supply vs. Demand advantage. Read the full article on Substack: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/asml-supply-advantage-horizon [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/asml-supply-advantage-horizon] Learn more at www.ericdnoren.com. [http://www.ericdnoren.com./]

Hims & Hers Turned the Prescription Into a Subscription

Traditional pharmacies had the patients, the chronic conditions, and the refill relationships. They never owned the prescription trigger. Hims & Hers did. Read the full article on Substack: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/hims-hers-prescription-to-subscription [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/hims-hers-prescription-to-subscription] Learn more at www.ericdnoren.com. [http://www.ericdnoren.com./] Additional Links: Periodic Table of Business Strategy: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/the-2025-periodic-table-of-business [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/the-2025-periodic-table-of-business] Strategic Formula: https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/strategic-formula-business-model-strategy-advantage [https://bankshotstrategy.substack.com/p/strategic-formula-business-model-strategy-advantage]