US equities: short-term pain, long-term gain?

US equities: short-term pain, long-term gain?

US equities have delivered strong gains year-to-date, despite a challenging macro backdrop, but that momentum is beginning to look less secure. While fundamentals remain supportive, the near‑term setup is becoming more stretched. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Alex Altman, Head of Equity Tactical Strategies in our Markets division, to break down his shift to a short-term tactically cautious view. They discuss how the balance of risks has begun to shift, with elevated euphoria and crowded positioning — particularly in AI‑linked momentum trades — leaving markets more exposed if that positioning unwinds. At the same time, higher real yields are starting to weigh on valuations, making the forward return profile less compelling, despite resilient earnings and macro data. They also examine equity supply, with a growing pipeline of IPOs and broader issuance adding complexity to the near‑term outlook. Taken together, these dynamics point to a more fragile setup. Patrick and Alex explore how the market may evolve and what role a pullback could play in resetting the current environment. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * The Global Volatility Pulse: Macro stumble, technical reset [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a2776c147fee46ec57030b7] * Equity Market Review: Shaky momentum, nascent rotation [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a225b04dd99b05a72e17781] * U.S. Equity-Linked Strategies: AI Capex Funding: Why Equity? Why Converts? [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a26da1a53e5150d1c8b0384] Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic: * The Fed's next move [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/inflation-crosscurrents-energy-vs-ai.html] * The cusp of a capex supercycle [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/the-cusp-of-a-capex-supercycle.html] * A bullish view on US equities [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/a-bullish-view-on-US-equities.html] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html] Important Non-Research Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-nonresearch-content-disclosures.html]

The Fed’s next move

The path for US interest rates has shifted sharply in recent months, as markets move from pricing rate cuts to pricing a potential hike. In this episode, Ronnie Wexler sits down with Barclays’ Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni to look at what’s driving that shift. At the centre of the discussion is inflation. While headline inflation has been pushed higher by rising energy prices driven by the Iran war, the key question for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is whether those pressures feed through into core inflation and ultimately shift longer-term expectations. That, Giannoni argues, is what could determine the Fed’s next move. The conversation also turns to the US consumer. Slowing real income growth, higher gasoline prices and a cooling labour market are starting to weigh on household spending, raising questions about how resilient demand can remain. Whilst these pressures could drive consumer spending down, the US consumer has surprised to the upside many times before according to Giannoni. So what should investors watch next? From inflation prints to consumer behaviour, listen to learn which signals could shape the Fed’s policy path in the months ahead. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * Waiting for the deal [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a19cd424d84c460f403d1c5] * What would trigger a 2026 Fed hike? [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a07867d2e2d9364ae36659e] * Consumers feeling the strain [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a1a172bc28b864fbcc150d1] * April consumer spending moderating amid faltering income [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a1868b763b4ad06c37643b9] Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic: * Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/inflation-crosscurrents-energy-vs-ai.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2606BB34MR____] * Decoding the bond sell-off [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/decoding-the-bond-sell-off.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2606BB34MR____] * Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars? [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/the-flip-side-podcast/do-high-gas-prices-change-how-americans-buy-cars.html?cid=shownotes_podcast___2606BB34MR____] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html] Important Non-Research Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-nonresearch-content-disclosures.html]

AI goes economy-wide

Productivity growth has been uneven across many sectors and economies. But AI in the form of humanoid robotics could change that, extending automation into physical services at scale. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research, to discuss what this shift could mean for productivity and the wider macro outlook. Keller explains that while a jobless future remains unlikely, the long‑running balance between labour and capital could continue to evolve as a broader range of tasks are automated. The conversation explores how combining cognitive and physical automation increases capital intensity and raises the importance of inputs such as electricity and commodities. They also consider how these forces could influence inflation dynamics and interest rates. As automation spreads into the physical economy, understanding where productivity gains may accrue – and what constrains them – becomes increasingly important. Listen now to hear the full discussion. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: •How humanoid robotics matters for macro [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a0b937d86cb8864d3240ac8] •Ten things to know about humanoids [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a0b937e86cb8864d3240aca] •The decade of the robot belongs to China [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a0b937d86cb8864d3240ac9] •Embodied AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement? [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a0b937e86cb8864d3240acb] Listeners can also hear more episodes about developments of physical AI: •Robots deliver dinner and profits [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/Robots-deliver-dinner-and-profits.html] •Rise of the humanoid robots [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/rise-of-the-humanoid-robots.html] •AI Revolution: China’s Five-Year Plan [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/AI-Revolution-China-Five-Year-Plan.html] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html]

Decoding the bond sell-off

Global bond yields have been rising sharply, with long-term yields breaking higher across multiple markets - pushing US 30‑year yields above 5%. The sell-off was initially triggered by energy-linked inflation resulting from the Iran war, but increasingly reflects a broader, cross‑market re-pricing, with fiscal pressures, shifting rate expectations and signs of bear‑flattening emerging in key markets. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Lucile Flight, Managing Director in Rates Trading, joins Patrick Coffey to examine what’s driving the move in different regions – from political uncertainty shaping UK gilts to changing views on neutral rates in the US and a dialled-back ECB response in Europe. They discuss what could bring yields down again and where investors are seeing the most compelling opportunities across global rates. Listeners can hear more on this topic: * Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/inflation-crosscurrents-energy-vs-ai.html] * European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/european-rates-inflation-ai-waves-collide.html] Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * Thinking Macro: No saving grace [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a0b367824c0231922cd657a] * Federal Reserve Commentary: What would trigger a 2026 Fed hike? [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a07867d2e2d9364ae36659e ] * United Kingdom Outlook: What a week... [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a075c06a4ec842cd36de6f6 ] * Global Economics Weekly: Leaders meet and bonds shriek [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP6a07a839de8e2907458924c2 ]

Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI

Markets are facing two competing inflation stories at the same time: a near‑term energy shock pushing inflation risks higher, and the possibility that AI acts as a medium to longer-run disinflationary force. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey, Global Head of the Product Management, sits down with Jon Hill, Head of US Inflation Strategy, to break down how energy price spikes feed into headline versus core inflation, what breakevens and real yields are signalling, and how central banks may respond to energy shocks they can’t control. They also discuss whether core inflation dynamics are drifting back toward a pre‑COVID structure, and how AI could shape the path ahead through productivity, wages and margins. Listeners can hear more on this topic: * Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk? [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/jet-fuel-shortage-holidays-at-risk.html] * European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide [https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/barclays-brief/european-rates-inflation-ai-waves-collide.html] Clients can read more on Barclays Live: * The view from overseas [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69fa06d7bff29476e7d72457&restriction=DEBT] * A Claudy inflation outlook [https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP69a74facfcce2d43ad7b0c31&restriction=DEBT] Important Content Disclosures [https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html]