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Hostilities risk sprawling out-of-control: China Daily editorial

6 min · I går
episode Hostilities risk sprawling out-of-control: China Daily editorial cover

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Barely weeks after the United States and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, an interim deal intended to end hostilities and create a framework for a broader settlement, the agreement is in jeopardy. 美伊签署《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》仅数周,这份旨在停止敌对行动、为达成全面解决方案搭建框架的临时协议如今已岌岌可危。 The immediate trigger appears to have been disputes over the interpretation of the MoU's provisions governing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the renewed confrontation is not simply another chapter in the rivalry between Washington and Tehran. It has evolved into a three-party strategic contest in which Tel Aviv's calculations also influence the pace and direction of events. 此次危机最直接的导火索,似乎是双方对备忘录中霍尔木兹海峡通航条款的解释存在分歧。然而,这场重新燃起的对峙已不再是美伊双边博弈的简单延续,而是演变成了一场三方战略较量,其中特拉维夫的考量同样在左右着局势发展的节奏与走向。 Israel has never concealed its willingness to prevent any US-Iran accommodation. From its perspective, even a temporary understanding risks reducing pressure on Tehran while leaving "unresolved concerns" over Iran's regional influence and nuclear issue. Recent reports suggest that Tel Aviv has been "coordinating" with Washington while simultaneously warning Tehran against retaliation. Israel's strategic intentions differ from those of parties seeking to preserve regional stability. 以色列从未掩饰其阻挠美伊达成任何和解的意图。从其视角来看,即便是临时性的谅解,也可能减轻对德黑兰的压力,而伊朗的地区影响力与核问题等"核心关切"却依旧悬而未决。近期报道显示,特拉维夫在表面上与华盛顿"协调"的同时,也在私下警告伊朗不得采取报复行动。以色列的战略诉求,显然与那些致力于维护地区稳定的各方存在显著不同。 This matters because the MoU was always less a peace agreement than a ceasefire held together by political convenience. It rested upon ambiguous language, diverging strategic objectives and fragile domestic calculations on both sides. Such pacts survive only when all parties concerned possess strong incentives to preserve them. That condition is disappearing. 这一态势值得警惕,因为这份备忘录本质上并非和平协定,而更像是一份依赖各方现实政治利益而维系的停火安排。它建立在模糊的措辞、相互背离的战略目标以及双方各自脆弱的国内政治算计之上。此类协定得以存续的唯一前提,是所有相关方都拥有强烈的维护动机。而如今,这一前提正在消失。 Washington's own calculations illustrate why. The US administration continues to face conflicting pressures. Military restraint satisfies voters weary of endless Middle Eastern crises. Yet any perceived concession toward Iran invites fierce criticism from domestic hawks. Rising oil prices threaten inflation, consumer confidence and electoral prospects, while renewed military action risks producing precisely the energy shock that the earlier agreement sought to prevent. Unsurprisingly, Washington has simultaneously resumed military operations while signaling its willingness to return to negotiations — an apparent contradiction that reflects political necessity rather than strategic coherence. 美国自身的处境恰恰说明了这一点。美国政府持续承受着方向矛盾的内部压力:军事上的克制,能迎合厌倦了中东无休止危机的选民;但只要有任何被视为对伊朗让步的举动,又会招致国内鹰派的猛烈抨击。油价上涨会加剧通胀、打击消费信心并影响选情,但重启军事行动又极可能引发此前协议力图避免的能源市场震荡。因此,我们看到美方在恢复军事行动的同时,又释放出愿重返谈判的信号——这种看似矛盾的做法,反映的是国内政治妥协的现实,而非连贯一致的战略逻辑。 Military force has repeatedly demonstrated its limitations. Months of strikes have neither fundamentally altered Iran's strategic judgments nor produced a durable diplomatic breakthrough. Instead, every exchange of missiles further erodes trust while increasing the probability that a miscalculation or third-party action could trigger a broader regional war. 军事手段的局限性已反复得到验证。持续数月的打击,既未能从根本上改变伊朗的战略判断,也未能促成持久的外交突破。相反,每一轮导弹交锋都在进一步侵蚀双方互信,同时增加了因误判或第三方介入而引爆更大范围地区战争的风险。 Energy markets understand this reality better than politicians. The world's consumers ultimately finance every failure of diplomacy in the Middle East. That is why the greatest danger today lies not merely in renewed hostilities but in the gradual normalization of perpetual low-intensity conflict. If the MoU collapses without a credible diplomatic successor, the region risks settling into a familiar yet dangerous equilibrium: intermittent strikes, periodic retaliation, disrupted shipping lanes and repeated diplomatic resets that never address the underlying disputes. Such instability benefits few beyond those who profit politically or economically from permanent confrontation. 能源市场比政客们更清楚这一现实:中东外交的每一次失败,其最终账单都将由全球消费者来支付。正因如此,当今最大的危险不仅在于冲突的重启,而在于长期低烈度冲突的逐渐常态化。若这份备忘录最终失效,而又无可靠的外交替代方案,该地区或将陷入一种熟悉却危险的循环:间歇性的打击、周期性的报复、受阻的航道,以及从未触及核心矛盾、徒劳重启的外交进程。这种动荡局面,最终只会让那些从永久对抗中获取政治或经济利益的少数群体受益。 As China's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations Sun Lei stressed at a UN Security Council briefing on the Iranian nuclear issue on Friday, a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities must hold in the Gulf. 正如中国常驻联合国副代表孙磊周五在联合国安理会伊朗核问题通报会上所强调的,海湾地区必须维持停火,终止一切敌对行动。 "China urges all relevant parties to overcome disruptive factors, refrain from the use or threat of force, preserve and implement the MoU, reach a solution that accommodates the concerns of all parties, lift the sanctions against Iran at an early date, and achieve substantive progress in the political settlement process," Sun said. 孙磊表示:"中方敦促相关各方排除干扰因素,避免使用或威胁使用武力,维护并落实这份谅解备忘录,寻求兼顾各方关切的解决方案,尽早解除对伊朗制裁,推动政治解决进程取得实质性进展。" The proper settlement of the Iran nuclear issue must respect the legitimate aspirations and lawful rights and interests of the parties concerned. Iran should continue to uphold its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. As a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran enjoys the legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The US should take concrete actions to create conditions for the political settlement of the Iran nuclear issue, Sun added. 孙磊补充指出,妥善解决伊朗核问题,必须尊重相关各方的合理诉求与合法权益。伊朗应继续恪守不发展核武器的承诺;作为《不扩散核武器条约》的无核武器缔约国,伊朗拥有和平利用核能的正当权利。美方应采取切实行动,为伊朗核问题的政治解决创造有利条件。 The Middle East has accumulated more than enough examples of wars that were easier to begin than to end. Another prolonged US-Iran confrontation will not produce a decisive winner. It will only weaken regional security, unsettle global markets, burden already strained economies and deepen divisions throughout the international system. 中东地区已有太多"易战难和"的前车之鉴。美伊若再度陷入长期对峙,不会有绝对的赢家,其结果只会削弱地区安全根基、扰乱全球市场、加重各国本已承压的经济,并加剧国际体系的分裂。 The choice confronting related parties is therefore stark. They can allow strategic mistrust, domestic politics and regional rivalries to dismantle an imperfect but valuable diplomatic opening. Or they can recognize that however unsatisfactory the MoU may have been, its implementation remains infinitely preferable to another round of instability. Even a fragile peace is always better than permanent war. 因此,摆在相关方面前的抉择是清晰的:是任由战略猜忌、国内政治与地区竞争,摧毁这个虽不完美却弥足珍贵的外交窗口;还是认识到,无论这份备忘录有多少不足,落实它都远比再次滑入动荡要可取。毕竟,再脆弱的和平,也胜过无休止的战争。 The world should not have to relearn that lesson yet again. 世界各国不应再一次亲身验证这一道理。 peace /piːs/ 和平 war /wɔːr/ 战争 choice /tʃɔɪs/ 抉择 stability /stəˈbɪləti/ 稳定

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episode 英语新闻丨作家蒋方舟因学术不端被撤销硕士学位 cover

英语新闻丨作家蒋方舟因学术不端被撤销硕士学位

Renmin University of China announced on Monday that it has revoked the master's degree of well-known Chinese writer Jiang Fangzhou — a 2019 graduate from the university's School of Liberal Arts — following an investigation into newly emerged evidence of alleged academic misconduct in her graduation thesis. 周一中国人民大学发布通报,经核查作家蒋方舟硕士毕业论文新增学术不端相关证据,学校决定撤销其硕士学位。蒋方舟 2019 年毕业于人大文学院。 After receiving new clues online, the university immediately formed an investigative panel consisting of several renowned experts from both within and outside the institution. The panel conducted a thorough review through literature tracing, comparative analysis, formal inquiries, and hearings of the respondent's statements. 学校在网络上收到相关新线索后,第一时间组建由校内外多名权威专家组成的专项调查组。调查组通过文献溯源、文本比对、问询谈话、听取当事人陈述等方式开展全面核查。 The investigation found that Jiang's master's thesis contained nine instances of textual overlap with an overseas journal article, without proper citation or reference listing. 核查认定,蒋方舟硕士毕业论文有九处文字内容与境外期刊论文重合,且未按规范标注引用、列入参考文献。 The university decided to revoke her master's degree in accordance to relevant laws and regulations. 学校依据相关法律法规作出撤销其硕士学位的处理决定。 This latest decision comes just over a week after an earlier university statement on July 5, which had found "academic irregularities" in Jiang's thesis, but stopped short of concluding that the case constituted serious misconduct warranting degree revocation. The earlier probe, triggered by a complaint from Tsinghua University philosophy professor Xiao Ying, had identified multiple citation errors. 此次处理决定距离该校 7 月 5 日首次通报仅过去一周有余。此前校方认定蒋方舟论文存在学术不规范问题,但未判定为足以撤销学位的严重学术不端行为。此前的调查由清华大学哲学系肖鹰教授实名举报发起,当时核查出多处引用不规范问题。 The university said it will take this case as a lesson to further strengthen academic integrity, improve thesis quality management, reinforce education on academic ethics, and firmly uphold the seriousness and authority of academic norms. 校方表示,将以此案为警示,持续强化学风建设,完善毕业论文全过程质量管理,深化学术道德教育,坚决维护学术规范的严肃性与权威性。 In a post issued by Jiang on Sina Weibo on Monday, she said she accepted the university's handling of the case. 蒋方舟周一在新浪微博发文称,完全接受学校的处理结果。 She apologized to her readers who are disturbed and disappointed by the incident and to her supervisor who has received punishment because of the incident. 她向因此事感到失望、困扰的读者致歉,也向受此事牵连受到处分的导师表达歉意。 In the July 5 statement, the university said it has suspended Jiang's supervisor from graduate admissions for one year and summoned the leadership of the School of Liberal Arts and ordered the school to undertake corrective measures. 7 月 5 日校方初次通报中提到,已暂停其导师一年硕士研究生招生资格,并约谈文学院领导,责令学院全面整改。 revoke /rɪˈvəʊk/v. 撤销,收回 misconduct /ˌmɪsˈkɒndʌkt/n. 不当行为,不端行为 citation /saɪˈteɪʃn/n. 引用,引文标注 integrity /ɪnˈteɡrəti/n. 诚信,正直

14. juli 20262 min
episode 英语新闻丨Xi to set out vision for AI development cover

英语新闻丨Xi to set out vision for AI development

President Xi Jinping will set out China's policy positions, vision and proposals on artificial intelligence development and governance at one of the field's most influential international events, to be held in Shanghai this week. Xi will attend the opening ceremony of the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance and deliver a keynote speech, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian announced on Monday. The four-day conference, themed "AI Partnership for a Brighter Future", will run from Friday to Monday. China has invited government officials from around the world, representatives of industry, universities and research institutions, as well as heads of international organizations, to attend the gathering, Lin told a regular news briefing in Beijing. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will attend the conference during an official visit to China from Thursday to Monday, Lin said. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet will attend and address the opening ceremony, according to Cambodia's Foreign Ministry. "AI technological innovation is undergoing broad-based breakthroughs and demonstrating unprecedented dynamism," Lin said. Such advances are bringing both opportunities and challenges to the international community, making AI governance "a profound topic of our times", he added. In recent years, China has worked to advance the four global initiatives and the Global AI Governance Initiative proposed by Xi in the field of AI, Lin said. The country has remained committed to providing international public goods, advocating AI for good and for all with real actions, and helping Global South countries strengthen their AI capacity. These efforts have been widely recognized by the international community, he added. "Through this conference, China looks forward to building a platform for all parties to enhance mutual trust, build consensus and deepen cooperation," said Lin. He added that China hopes the gathering will promote the sound, safe and orderly development of AI and become "a milestone in the history of AI development". Speaking at a news conference in Shanghai on July 7, Vice-Mayor Chen Jie said that this year's conference was expected to reach a record scale, attracting more than 1,100 companies, displaying over 3,000 exhibits and featuring more than 300 products making their global debut. For the first time, the exhibition area will exceed 100,000 square meters. The intelligent computing and embodied AI sections will each bring together more than 200 companies. Leading technology companies, major State-owned enterprises and top multinational corporations will exhibit alongside their ecosystem partners, showcasing the latest AI-powered applications across a wide range of industries. Shanghai has previously hosted the conference for eight consecutive years since its launch in 2018. Over the years, the event has developed into an important platform for showcasing cutting-edge AI technologies from China and abroad, as well as for deepening international cooperation.

14. juli 20263 min
episode Hostilities risk sprawling out-of-control: China Daily editorial cover

Hostilities risk sprawling out-of-control: China Daily editorial

Barely weeks after the United States and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, an interim deal intended to end hostilities and create a framework for a broader settlement, the agreement is in jeopardy. 美伊签署《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》仅数周,这份旨在停止敌对行动、为达成全面解决方案搭建框架的临时协议如今已岌岌可危。 The immediate trigger appears to have been disputes over the interpretation of the MoU's provisions governing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the renewed confrontation is not simply another chapter in the rivalry between Washington and Tehran. It has evolved into a three-party strategic contest in which Tel Aviv's calculations also influence the pace and direction of events. 此次危机最直接的导火索,似乎是双方对备忘录中霍尔木兹海峡通航条款的解释存在分歧。然而,这场重新燃起的对峙已不再是美伊双边博弈的简单延续,而是演变成了一场三方战略较量,其中特拉维夫的考量同样在左右着局势发展的节奏与走向。 Israel has never concealed its willingness to prevent any US-Iran accommodation. From its perspective, even a temporary understanding risks reducing pressure on Tehran while leaving "unresolved concerns" over Iran's regional influence and nuclear issue. Recent reports suggest that Tel Aviv has been "coordinating" with Washington while simultaneously warning Tehran against retaliation. Israel's strategic intentions differ from those of parties seeking to preserve regional stability. 以色列从未掩饰其阻挠美伊达成任何和解的意图。从其视角来看,即便是临时性的谅解,也可能减轻对德黑兰的压力,而伊朗的地区影响力与核问题等"核心关切"却依旧悬而未决。近期报道显示,特拉维夫在表面上与华盛顿"协调"的同时,也在私下警告伊朗不得采取报复行动。以色列的战略诉求,显然与那些致力于维护地区稳定的各方存在显著不同。 This matters because the MoU was always less a peace agreement than a ceasefire held together by political convenience. It rested upon ambiguous language, diverging strategic objectives and fragile domestic calculations on both sides. Such pacts survive only when all parties concerned possess strong incentives to preserve them. That condition is disappearing. 这一态势值得警惕,因为这份备忘录本质上并非和平协定,而更像是一份依赖各方现实政治利益而维系的停火安排。它建立在模糊的措辞、相互背离的战略目标以及双方各自脆弱的国内政治算计之上。此类协定得以存续的唯一前提,是所有相关方都拥有强烈的维护动机。而如今,这一前提正在消失。 Washington's own calculations illustrate why. The US administration continues to face conflicting pressures. Military restraint satisfies voters weary of endless Middle Eastern crises. Yet any perceived concession toward Iran invites fierce criticism from domestic hawks. Rising oil prices threaten inflation, consumer confidence and electoral prospects, while renewed military action risks producing precisely the energy shock that the earlier agreement sought to prevent. Unsurprisingly, Washington has simultaneously resumed military operations while signaling its willingness to return to negotiations — an apparent contradiction that reflects political necessity rather than strategic coherence. 美国自身的处境恰恰说明了这一点。美国政府持续承受着方向矛盾的内部压力:军事上的克制,能迎合厌倦了中东无休止危机的选民;但只要有任何被视为对伊朗让步的举动,又会招致国内鹰派的猛烈抨击。油价上涨会加剧通胀、打击消费信心并影响选情,但重启军事行动又极可能引发此前协议力图避免的能源市场震荡。因此,我们看到美方在恢复军事行动的同时,又释放出愿重返谈判的信号——这种看似矛盾的做法,反映的是国内政治妥协的现实,而非连贯一致的战略逻辑。 Military force has repeatedly demonstrated its limitations. Months of strikes have neither fundamentally altered Iran's strategic judgments nor produced a durable diplomatic breakthrough. Instead, every exchange of missiles further erodes trust while increasing the probability that a miscalculation or third-party action could trigger a broader regional war. 军事手段的局限性已反复得到验证。持续数月的打击,既未能从根本上改变伊朗的战略判断,也未能促成持久的外交突破。相反,每一轮导弹交锋都在进一步侵蚀双方互信,同时增加了因误判或第三方介入而引爆更大范围地区战争的风险。 Energy markets understand this reality better than politicians. The world's consumers ultimately finance every failure of diplomacy in the Middle East. That is why the greatest danger today lies not merely in renewed hostilities but in the gradual normalization of perpetual low-intensity conflict. If the MoU collapses without a credible diplomatic successor, the region risks settling into a familiar yet dangerous equilibrium: intermittent strikes, periodic retaliation, disrupted shipping lanes and repeated diplomatic resets that never address the underlying disputes. Such instability benefits few beyond those who profit politically or economically from permanent confrontation. 能源市场比政客们更清楚这一现实:中东外交的每一次失败,其最终账单都将由全球消费者来支付。正因如此,当今最大的危险不仅在于冲突的重启,而在于长期低烈度冲突的逐渐常态化。若这份备忘录最终失效,而又无可靠的外交替代方案,该地区或将陷入一种熟悉却危险的循环:间歇性的打击、周期性的报复、受阻的航道,以及从未触及核心矛盾、徒劳重启的外交进程。这种动荡局面,最终只会让那些从永久对抗中获取政治或经济利益的少数群体受益。 As China's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations Sun Lei stressed at a UN Security Council briefing on the Iranian nuclear issue on Friday, a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities must hold in the Gulf. 正如中国常驻联合国副代表孙磊周五在联合国安理会伊朗核问题通报会上所强调的,海湾地区必须维持停火,终止一切敌对行动。 "China urges all relevant parties to overcome disruptive factors, refrain from the use or threat of force, preserve and implement the MoU, reach a solution that accommodates the concerns of all parties, lift the sanctions against Iran at an early date, and achieve substantive progress in the political settlement process," Sun said. 孙磊表示:"中方敦促相关各方排除干扰因素,避免使用或威胁使用武力,维护并落实这份谅解备忘录,寻求兼顾各方关切的解决方案,尽早解除对伊朗制裁,推动政治解决进程取得实质性进展。" The proper settlement of the Iran nuclear issue must respect the legitimate aspirations and lawful rights and interests of the parties concerned. Iran should continue to uphold its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. As a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran enjoys the legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The US should take concrete actions to create conditions for the political settlement of the Iran nuclear issue, Sun added. 孙磊补充指出,妥善解决伊朗核问题,必须尊重相关各方的合理诉求与合法权益。伊朗应继续恪守不发展核武器的承诺;作为《不扩散核武器条约》的无核武器缔约国,伊朗拥有和平利用核能的正当权利。美方应采取切实行动,为伊朗核问题的政治解决创造有利条件。 The Middle East has accumulated more than enough examples of wars that were easier to begin than to end. Another prolonged US-Iran confrontation will not produce a decisive winner. It will only weaken regional security, unsettle global markets, burden already strained economies and deepen divisions throughout the international system. 中东地区已有太多"易战难和"的前车之鉴。美伊若再度陷入长期对峙,不会有绝对的赢家,其结果只会削弱地区安全根基、扰乱全球市场、加重各国本已承压的经济,并加剧国际体系的分裂。 The choice confronting related parties is therefore stark. They can allow strategic mistrust, domestic politics and regional rivalries to dismantle an imperfect but valuable diplomatic opening. Or they can recognize that however unsatisfactory the MoU may have been, its implementation remains infinitely preferable to another round of instability. Even a fragile peace is always better than permanent war. 因此,摆在相关方面前的抉择是清晰的:是任由战略猜忌、国内政治与地区竞争,摧毁这个虽不完美却弥足珍贵的外交窗口;还是认识到,无论这份备忘录有多少不足,落实它都远比再次滑入动荡要可取。毕竟,再脆弱的和平,也胜过无休止的战争。 The world should not have to relearn that lesson yet again. 世界各国不应再一次亲身验证这一道理。 peace /piːs/ 和平 war /wɔːr/ 战争 choice /tʃɔɪs/ 抉择 stability /stəˈbɪləti/ 稳定

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episode 英语新闻丨上半年全国铁路旅客发送量突破 23 亿人次 cover

英语新闻丨上半年全国铁路旅客发送量突破 23 亿人次

A record number of passenger trips were made across China in the first half of 2026, with more than 2.3 billion recorded, up 5 percent from the previous year, according to data released by the national railway operator Monday. 国铁集团周一发布数据显示,2026 年上半年全国铁路旅客发送量创历史新高,累计超 23 亿人次,同比增长 5%。 An average of 11,468 passenger trains were operated daily during the six-month period, representing a 5.8 percent year-on-year rise, figures from the China State Railway Group Company., Limited. (China Railway) showed. 中国国家铁路集团有限公司(中国铁路)数据显示,上半年全国铁路日均开行旅客列车 11468 列,同比增加 5.8%。 Adapting to the passenger flow growth brought by the country's transit visa-free policy, China's railway network has facilitated increased travel for foreign passengers, recording over 12.31 million foreign passenger trips in the first half, a surge of 33.6 percent year on year. 配合我国过境免签政策带来的客流增长,全国铁路便利外籍旅客出行,上半年累计发送外籍旅客 1231 万余人次,同比大幅增长 33.6%。 During the period, cross-border rail travel has continued to grow, with the China-Laos Railway carrying 188,000 trips, up 25.9 percent from a year earlier, while the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway handled 16.96 million cross-border trips, an increase of 13.8 percent year on year, China Railway said. 中国铁路表示,上半年跨境铁路出行量持续攀升:中老铁路发送跨境旅客 18.8 万人次,同比增长 25.9%;广深港高铁跨境旅客发送量达 1696 万人次,同比上涨 13.8%。 Meanwhile, China Railway has been coordinating with local cultural and tourism departments to promote tourism, operating 1,797 tourist trains nationwide during the first six months. It has also expanded its "quiet carriage" and pet-friendly travel services. 与此同时,国铁集团联动各地文旅部门助推文旅出行,上半年全国累计开行旅游专列 1797 列;铁路部门还进一步扩容静音车厢、宠物友好出行相关服务。 passenger /ˈpæsɪndʒə(r)/n. 旅客,乘客 cross-border /ˌkrɒs ˈbɔːdə(r)/adj. 跨境的 transit /ˈtrænzɪt/n. 过境;通行 tourism /ˈtʊərɪzəm/n. 旅游业,观光 参考 24 篇资料

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episode 英语新闻丨美国立场分歧在北约峰会埋下裂痕 cover

英语新闻丨美国立场分歧在北约峰会埋下裂痕

NATO leaders left Turkiye on Wednesday after reaffirming their commitment to collective defense, but uncertainty now hangs over the alliance following US President Donald Trump's disruptive remarks. 北约各国领导人周三离开土耳其,此前他们重申了集体防御承诺,但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普一番极具分裂性的言论,让整个联盟前景蒙上一层不确定性。 Divisions over defense spending and the security commitments of the United States have raised questions about the cohesion of the alliance and even whether leaders would convene another summit next year. 各国在防务开支、美国安全保障义务两方面产生分歧,外界开始质疑北约内部凝聚力,甚至不确定明年能否如期举办下一届峰会。 Although the 32-member bloc sought to project unity through its "ironclad commitment" to the collective defense principle, the summit highlighted increasingly divergent priorities between Washington and its European allies. 这个拥有32个成员国的同盟试图借对集体防御原则“牢不可破的承诺”对外塑造团结形象,但本次峰会清晰暴露,美国与欧洲盟友的核心诉求分歧正不断扩大。 Trump's repeated criticism of NATO, renewed demands for Europe to shoulder more of the budgetary burden, and public rebukes of individual allies reinforced concern that the trans-Atlantic relationship is becoming more transactional than strategic. 特朗普多次公开抨击北约,再度要求欧洲承担更多防务经费压力,还当众点名批评部分盟国,这加深了外界的担忧:跨大西洋关系正在从战略伙伴关系,彻底偏向纯粹的利益交易关系。 Speaking in Ankara before joining alliance leaders, Trump made clear that his frustrations with NATO had not eased. 在赶赴北约领导人集体会谈前,特朗普于安卡拉发表讲话,直言自己对北约的不满丝毫没有缓解。 "Despite the fact that I'm very upset with NATO, that we pay far, far too much, billions and billions of dollars too much — because it's unfair — we protect them, but they're not there for us," he said. 他表示:“我对北约非常不满,我们付出的代价实在过高,白白多掏了数十亿美元,这非常不公平。我们为他们提供安全庇护,可他们却不愿对等付出。” Trump also renewed his call for US control of Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO member Denmark, while criticizing Spain over defense spending and its position on the Iran war, even threatening to cut off all trade with Madrid. 特朗普再度提出由美国接管格陵兰岛(北约成员国丹麦的自治领地),同时指责西班牙防务投入不足、在伊朗冲突上立场与美国相悖,甚至威胁断绝与马德里的全部贸易。 The remarks contrasted sharply with efforts by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and European leaders to present a united front, underscoring growing disagreements over burden-sharing, strategic priorities and the future balance of responsibilities within the alliance. 这番表态和北约秘书长马克·吕特、欧洲各国领导人力求展现统一战线的努力形成强烈反差,凸显各方在防务分摊、战略重心、联盟权责分配等问题上分歧持续加剧。 Domestic pressures 国内层面的压力 Tom Harper, a lecturer in international relations at the University of East London, said the dispute over defense spending has become increasingly tied to domestic political and economic pressures. 东伦敦大学国际关系讲师汤姆·哈珀表示,这场防务开支争端,如今和各国国内政治、经济压力深度绑定。 European governments face mounting political risks if higher military spending comes at the cost of public services, Harper said. 哈珀称,欧洲各国如果以削减公共服务为代价增加军费,将面临巨大的国内政治风险。 "If increased defense spending coincides with cuts to social services and education, this will likely impose domestic costs on European governments, which they may be unwilling to pay, especially should they be facing election campaigns," he said. 他说:“倘若增加国防开支就要削减社保、教育投入,各国政府都不愿承担这样的国内代价,尤其是恰逢大选周期时。” "You could say it's an example of the age-old debate over guns or butter." “这就是经典的‘大炮与黄油’取舍难题。” Harper also argued that the economic benefits of increased military spending could flow disproportionately to the US. 哈珀还提出,军费扩容带来的经济红利,绝大部分会流向美国。 "It is quite likely that American companies would be the primary beneficiaries of increased spending, which is one of the reasons why Washington has been keen for NATO members to increase their defense expenditure," he said. 他表示:“美国企业大概率会成为军费上涨的主要受益者,这也是华盛顿极力推动北约各国提高防务开支的原因之一。” Matthew Arnold, a policy analyst and visiting fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, questioned whether NATO members could realistically sustain significantly higher defense spending. 伦敦政治经济学院政策分析师、访问学者马修·阿诺德质疑,北约各国是否有能力长期维持大幅上涨的军费。 "The fiscal concerns are serious," he said, warning that sustained increases in military expenditure could worsen debt burdens and social tensions, while much of the increased procurement would initially benefit large defense contractors, many of them based in the US. 他称:“各国财政隐患十分严峻。持续增加军费会加重债务压力、激化社会矛盾,而且新增军备采购订单,初期大多流入美国大型军工企业。” Challenge to cohesion 联盟凝聚力遭遇挑战 Lawrence Loh, director of the Center for Governance and Sustainability at the National University of Singapore Business School, said NATO now faces a broader challenge to its cohesion. 新加坡国立大学商学院治理与可持续发展中心主任Lawrence Loh表示,北约整体凝聚力正遭遇更深层次的考验。 "The NATO summit comes at a critical time when the alliance faces an emerging legitimacy crisis," Loh said. "With pressure from Trump, NATO risks bowing to this strongman's demands for increased defense spending," he said. "It is evolving into a transaction grouping of countries that weigh their respective interests with just one member — the US." 他表示:“本届北约峰会恰逢联盟合法性危机显现的关键节点。在特朗普的施压下,北约被迫迎合这位强硬领导人提高军费的要求,联盟逐渐沦为纯粹的利益交换集团,各国凡事只权衡对美单方利弊。” The alliance is simultaneously grappling with economic slowdown, political fragmentation and social integration challenges across Europe, while also facing criticism over its limited effectiveness in responding to conflicts in the Middle East, he added. 他补充道,北约同时要应对欧洲多国经济低迷、政治分裂、社会融合难题,还因应对中东冲突收效有限饱受诟病。 "All in all, NATO is now caught between a rock — the US — and a hard place, which is all the region-based anguishes in Europe," he said. 他说:“总而言之,北约如今进退两难:一边是步步紧逼的美国,另一边是欧洲层出不穷的各类地区矛盾。” Several analysts believe Trump's approach could ultimately accelerate Europe's pursuit of greater strategic autonomy. 多名分析人士认为,特朗普的行事风格,最终会倒逼欧洲加速推进战略自主。 Angel Saz-Carranza, director of the EsadeGeo Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics in Spain, said NATO will likely evolve over the next decade. 西班牙ESADE全球经济与地缘政治中心主任Angel Saz-Carranza表示,未来十年北约格局将会迎来演变。 "Reliance on the US will diminish as European Union capabilities increase, which will gradually rebalance the trans-Atlantic relationship," he said. 他说:“随着欧盟自身防务实力提升,欧洲对美国的依赖会逐步降低,跨大西洋力量平衡将重新调整。” Pedro Brinca, an associate professor of macroeconomics at Nova School of Business and Economics in Portugal, also expects the alliance to become increasingly European in character. 葡萄牙诺瓦商学院宏观经济学副教授佩德罗·布林卡也预判,北约的欧洲属性会持续增强。 However, he cautioned that Europe's ability to shoulder greater responsibility will depend not only on spending more but also on spending more efficiently. Fragmented national procurement would deliver less security than coordinated European investment, he added. 但他同时提醒,欧洲想要承担更多安全责任,不能只单纯增加军费,更要提升资金使用效率。各国分散独立采购军备,所能获得的安全收益,远不如欧洲协同统一投入。 Although NATO leaders departed Ankara reiterating their commitment to collective defense, the summit illustrated that the alliance's greatest challenge may no longer be external threats alone, but maintaining political trust among its own members. 尽管北约各国领导人离开安卡拉时再度重申集体防御义务,但本次峰会充分说明,联盟最大的难题早已不只是外部威胁,维系成员国之间的政治互信才是核心。 The final declaration said the leaders "look forward to our next meeting", but without committing to a date. 峰会最终宣言仅写明各国领导人“期待下一次会晤”,并未敲定具体举办时间。 divergence分歧、立场背离 sow埋下、滋生(矛盾、裂痕) discord不和、分歧、内部裂痕 NATO北大西洋公约组织,简称北约 summit(国际)峰会

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