Predicting Startup Success | Measuring Team Dynamics with Soma Pirityi

Co-Founder Conflicts | Getting a Business Through the Messy Middle | Jane Hales

Two-thirds of co-founded businesses will lose a founder at some point. Sometimes it's dramatic, maybe even existential - businesses sold amid conflict go for circa 40% less. However, the personal toll - the sleepless nights, the stress - rarely gets mentioned because of the NDAs... Jane Hales is trying to stop it getting to that point. After stepping out of a three-founder business herself, Jane now works with founding teams in what she calls the "messy middle" — the point where the original excitement has faded, something feels off, and nobody's quite sure why. You might call it marriage guidance counselling for co-founders. The more she explains it, the more obvious it becomes that this is a gap nobody else is filling. In this conversation, Jane makes the case that most co-founder conflict isn't a strategy problem. It's an emotional problem — and most of us make it worse by trying to treat it with business tools. Listen to this episode to find out: * What the Partner Hype Cycle is, and why the "trough of disillusionment" is normal — not a sign things have gone wrong * Why 50/50 equity feels fair, but can become a structural time bomb  * Which three legal documents every founding team should have — and what the crucial fourth one is * Why VCs treat a co-founder departure as a red flag, and what it does to your valuation * What a "conflict entrepreneur" is — and why you should be wary of them * How to tell the difference between good and bad conflict * Why the most important meeting in your co-founder calendar has nothing to do with the business Chapters: * 1:44 — Marriage guidance for co-founders and the Partner Hype Cycle * 4:42 — The symptoms: unmet needs, poor communication, somatic signs * 6:30 — The business prenup: worst-case questions and the 50/50 trap * 9:32 — Three legal documents and the fourth emotional contract * 11:20 — When friendships aren't enough: the funeral story * 12:49 — Good conflict vs. bad conflict: trust, dissent and psychological safety * 14:31 — Jane's own story: "I tried to solve an emotional problem with business tools" * 17:26 — Beware conflict entrepreneurs * 22:36 — Early warning signs and the checklist * 27:18 — War stories: the £7m bankruptcy and the dropped trousers * 29:42 — What to put in place: the prenup questions and the alignment rhythm Get in touch with Jane: * Website: https://janehales.com/ [https://janehales.com/] * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jane-hales/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jane-hales/] * Grab Jane's co-founder conflict early-warning checklist: https://janehales.com/executive-alignment-gap-checklist-form/ [https://janehales.com/executive-alignment-gap-checklist-form/] * Join the waitlist for Jane's book (working title) 'From Dream Team to Divorce?': https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScH972r9KhOB6UUGV2Bd6sxM9iHI-uFbbyln1Gw7h3kWoZ16w/viewform [https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScH972r9KhOB6UUGV2Bd6sxM9iHI-uFbbyln1Gw7h3kWoZ16w/viewform]   -- Thanks for listening. Curious Business is here to bring you insights, experiences and ideas from founders, leaders and experts to help you think differently about your business and its marketing. My name is Stephen Morris and I help start-ups and scale-ups get momentum in their marketing and pipeline. Like to know more? Book a discovery call: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/] Or sign-up to 'The Prompt' my monthly newsletter: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/] If you'd like to talk about how podcasts can build reach, enhance authority and fuel your pipeline, visit: www.curiousbusiness.co.uk [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk].

Are lean teams the future of work? with Matthew Knight of The Independency Co.

Work is fragmenting - many companies are building smaller permanent cores, augmented by project-based freelancers. It makes sense on paper. But do we have the skills, processes, and mindset to make it work for everyone involved? Matthew Knight has spent a decade studying this exact area. In this episode, we explore the real gaps between lean-team theory and practice - and what B2B leaders need to know about the future of work. Matthew Knight has spent the last decade studying exactly that question. He's an independent strategist, founder of the Independency Company, and through his research organisation Leapers he's worked with over 250,000 people navigating life outside permanent employment. He knows this world from the inside - and he has a few things to say about how most organisations are getting it wrong. Matthew tells a human story: why people step into self-employment for control, flexibility and purpose, but how the reality often brings isolation, financial stress and a brutal learning curve. He shares how a Slack channel that became a community, and then Leapers research that has reached hundreds of thousands of freelancers. He argues the smartest companies are those that design for relationship, not just transaction - and that this design yields commercial as well as moral returns. Listen to this episode to find out: * Why the biggest barrier to effective freelance relationships isn't contracts or money - it's something most organisations already struggle with * What "the Tinder-fication of talent" means, why it happened, and why it might be unwinding * What "lean core plus extended network" looks like as a deliberate operating model rather than an emergency stopgap * The difference between outcomes and outputs - and why it matters more when teams are assembled per project * What's happens to mentoring when senior talent ages out of agencies and junior roles started disappearing References and links * Matthew Knight on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thinkplaymake [https://www.linkedin.com/in/thinkplaymake] * The Independency Company: https://the.independency.co/ [https://the.independency.co/] * Leapers annual research and resources for people working independently: https://www.leapers.co/ [https://www.leapers.co/] Related Curious Business episodes: * #27: Matt Ballantine on randomness and how organisations adapt https://podcast.curiousbusiness.co.uk/e/matt-ballantine-random-the-book/ [https://podcast.curiousbusiness.co.uk/e/matt-ballantine-random-the-book/] * #24: Neil Mullarkey on improv as a frame for how people work together https://podcast.curiousbusiness.co.uk/e/neil-mullarkey-improv-your-business/ [https://podcast.curiousbusiness.co.uk/e/neil-mullarkey-improv-your-business/] Chapter list 0:01:00 — From developer to independent strategist 0:03:08 — The trigger: one job, one Slack channel, one gap nobody was filling 0:06:15 — From community to research to advocacy 0:07:03 — Something like a union? Why one model can't solve it 0:08:10 — What stops agencies and freelancers working well together 0:10:41 — Why freelancers are better at navigating uncertainty 0:12:31 — Why people choose to freelance: control, flexibility, and necessity 0:15:09 — The lean core and the extended network 0:15:53 — Does the Chief Freelance Office already exist? 0:16:56 — The three Cs of contingent workforces 0:19:52 — From cost-minimisation to ROI: a new mindset 0:21:19 — Should freelancers push back on being told where to work? 0:22:13 — Outcomes vs. outputs: what freelancers can and can't control 0:24:17 — How the freelance market has changed in 10 years 0:25:06 — Tinder-fication of talent: platforms, commoditisation, and what next 0:26:03 — Accessibility, oversupply, and the changing freelancer demographic 0:27:23 — The Leapers survey: what the data actually shows 0:29:15 — Isolation, loneliness, and the knowledge gap 0:32:04 — A holistic approach: L&D, mentoring, mental health for everyone 0:32:48 — AI and the junior talent problem 0:33:38 — Are freelancers being used as mentors? What's actually happening 0:35:34 — "It has to be designed" — and why that's harder than it sounds 0:35:40 — The skills warning: 10, 12, 15 years until nobody has any 0:37:30 — Policy, the DCMS and the long game    -- Thanks for listening. Curious Business is here to bring you insights, experiences and ideas from founders, leaders and experts to help you think differently about your business and its marketing. My name is Stephen Morris and I help start-ups and scale-ups get momentum in their marketing and pipeline. Like to know more? Book a discovery call: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/] Or sign-up to 'The Prompt' my monthly newsletter: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/] If you'd like to talk about how podcasts can build reach, enhance authority and fuel your pipeline, visit: www.curiousbusiness.co.uk [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk].

Why Chance Matters More Than Business Strategy: Getting Random with Matt Ballantine

How many of the companies or people you admire got where they are by following a process? And how many took advantage of a lucky break or serendipitous pivot? We almost never think about the influence of chance on business strategy  — the randomness in the path to every success. What if the biggest competitive advantage isn't better planning - it's embracing randomness? Looking for the serendipity in business? Matt Ballantine, sociologist and co-author of 'Random: How to Thrive in an Unpredictable World,' reveals why the business strategy playbooks overlook the chance encounters that actually shape breakthrough growth. Matt has spent thirty years helping organisations try to change. In this conversation, he explains why organisational barriers tend to have deeply entrenched roots, why best practice is almost always survivorship bias in disguise, why the most exciting sports tend to have randomness built into the rules, and why pattern-spotting is both an asset and a blind spot for us humans. Listen to this episode to learn: * Why the laminated notices in a company toilet tell you so much about its values * Why best practice is something you think you can install - and good practice is something you have to arrive at * What German researchers found when they studied the coin toss in penalty shootouts  * Why LLMs give you a different answer every time * The first act of randomness leaders should embrace   Links Order Random the book: https://securityblendbooks.com/products/random [https://securityblendbooks.com/products/random] Connect with Matt on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattballantine/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattballantine/] Related episode: #24 with Neil Mullarkey: https://podcast.curiousbusiness.co.uk/e/neil-mullarkey-improv-your-business/ [https://podcast.curiousbusiness.co.uk/e/neil-mullarkey-improv-your-business/] Related episode: #6 with Dan Klein: https://podcast.curiousbusiness.co.uk/e/dan-klein-gen-ai-curiosity/ [https://podcast.curiousbusiness.co.uk/e/dan-klein-gen-ai-curiosity/]   Chapters 00:54 — Sociologist or technologist? Why the distinction matters 01:56 — Baudrillard, McLuhan and the blurring of reality 04:15 — Why change keeps failing 05:26 — What grows back when you only deal with the surface 07:31 — The toilet test: reading company values in laminated notices 11:46 — Why Matt isn't a fan of best practice 13:08 — How a book about Random-ness came about 14:28 — Cards as a facilitation tool 16:48 — Apophenia: the compulsion to find patterns where none exist 18:34 — Who is the book for? Why is the book for? 19:12 — The format: why it's not really a book 25:03 — How the book can be used 25:56 — The five meanings of "random" 27:56 — Three reasons randomness is useful 28:34 — Facebook, Friends Reunited and survivorship bias in tech 30:06 — Businesses ofter don't like uncertainty — but they should 31:48 — The ovoid spheroid and randomness in sport 33:39 — Does randomness fly in the face of AI? 35:54 — The Watford employment agency: October 1993 38:15 — The first act of randomness every leader should embrace    -- Thanks for listening. Curious Business is here to bring you insights, experiences and ideas from founders, leaders and experts to help you think differently about your business and its marketing. My name is Stephen Morris and I help start-ups and scale-ups get momentum in their marketing and pipeline. Like to know more? Book a discovery call: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/] Or sign-up to 'The Prompt' my monthly newsletter: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/] If you'd like to talk about how podcasts can build reach, enhance authority and fuel your pipeline, visit: www.curiousbusiness.co.uk [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk].

The Price is Wrong: Redesigning B2B SaaS Pricing Strategy with Roee Hartuv

Most B2B software companies are leaving serious money on the table — not because the product isn't good enough, not because the sales team needs more training. It's the pricing strategy. It's not the number you choose, it's everything that comes before it. Roee Hartuv is the founder of Willingness to Pay, a consultancy that helps B2B SaaS companies redesign product pricing and packaging from first principles. His philosophy is simple: stop pricing the product, start pricing the customer. B2B SaaS pricing strategy is the silent revenue multiplier most founders ignore. Discover how value-based pricing and packaging can transform your go-to-market strategy.   In this conversation, we get into: * Why the actual price you charge is probably the least important pricing decision you'll make * How the shift from SaaS to AI is destroying gross margins in ways most businesses aren't tracking * What 'operational debt' looks like and why bad pricing makes it harder to manage renewals * Why value selling as a sales methodology needs the right packaging to support it * What the shift from seat-based to usage-based pricing means for finance, investors and customers * Who's most likely to be getting pricing wrong Whether you're setting prices for the first time or running a mature product business that hasn't revisited its model in years, this episode will make you think differently.   Connect with Roee: On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/roeehartuv/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/roeehartuv/] Willingness to Pay YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@SaaSPricing/videos [https://www.youtube.com/@SaaSPricing/videos]   Chapters: * 00:58 — What is Willingness to Pay, and why does the name matter? * 03:12 — When should a company start thinking seriously about pricing? * 03:58 — Is changing your pricing as risky as it feels? * 09:43 — What triggers companies to seek help with pricing? * 14:20 — Is there a "right" price — or is pricing always a moving target? * 18:14 — How AI is collapsing gross margins in real time * 20:32 — The pricing stack: packaging → metric → structure → number * 24:36 — Why value selling doesn't work without the right packaging * 28:27 — 5x revenue in 18 months: what actually changed? * 31:29 — The most counterintuitive thing about B2B pricing * 37:01 — The one thing to do if you're moving into AI   -- Thanks for listening. Curious Business is here to bring you insights, experiences and ideas from founders, leaders and experts to help you think differently about your business and its marketing. My name is Stephen Morris and I help start-ups and scale-ups get momentum in their marketing and pipeline. Like to know more? Book a discovery call: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/] Or sign-up to 'The Prompt' my monthly newsletter: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/] If you'd like to talk about how podcasts can build reach, enhance authority and fuel your pipeline, visit: www.curiousbusiness.co.uk [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk].

Predicting Startup Success | Measuring Team Dynamics with Soma Pirityi

We Invest In People is the oldest principle in venture capital. It's also, Soma Pirityi argues, the industry's longest-running paradox. 65% of startups fail due to team-related issues, not because they can't sell or find product market fit. So why can't we better measure, predict and guide startup teams to success?  Soma is the founder of ETA Technologies, the Cambridge-based company that's on a mission to measure, model and inform team dynamics. They've analysed over 10,000 startup teams and built mathematical models to spot the patterns of success - and failure - and realised that the team is the soul of the company. In this episode, we get into the data behind startup failure, the sometimes counterintuitive dimensions of what makes a great founding team, and why the single most predictive factor in startup survival is something most founders have never heard of. Listen to find out: * Why VCs are beaten by a stock-picking algorithm when it comes to early-stage investing * What the team slide in a pitch deck actually tells investors * Why too much resilience can kill a company as surely as too little * What is the single most predictive factor in founding team survival * The one story that proves why ignoring a data model can cost you everything Chapters: * 0:00:54 — The founding paradox: investing in people you cannot measure * 0:04:07 — From VC to founder: what crossing the table teaches you * 0:05:59 — The negotiation nobody teaches founders * 0:09:17 — Building ETA and why Cambridge beat Silicon Valley * 0:12:35 — 65%: the startup killer nobody talks about * 0:16:00 — The lone genius myth and the teams behind the icons * 0:19:45 — Survivorship bias: why ETA studies failure, not success * 0:26:29 — The Big 20: what ETA actually measures * 0:32:37 — Synergistic support: the most predictive factor nobody has heard of * 0:35:50 — Jim Simons: the mathematician who changed finance * 0:41:12 — The death of the pitch deck * 0:44:50 — The Frankenstein moment: testing their own team Links: * ETA Technologies: https://eta-technologies.com/ [https://eta-technologies.com/] * Connect with Soma on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/soma-benedek-pirityi/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/soma-benedek-pirityi/] Book recommendations: * Peter Thiel with Blake Masters 'Zero to One'  https://uk.bookshop.org/a/15792/9780753555200 [https://uk.bookshop.org/a/15792/9780753555200] (affiliate links) * Gregory Zuckerman 'The Man Who Solved the Market' (Biography of Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies) https://uk.bookshop.org/a/15792/9780241309735 [https://uk.bookshop.org/a/15792/9780241309735] * Ashlee Vance 'Elon Musk' https://uk.bookshop.org/a/15792/9780753555644 [https://uk.bookshop.org/a/15792/9780753555644]   -- Thanks for listening. Curious Business is here to bring you insights, experiences and ideas from founders, leaders and experts to help you think differently about your business and its marketing. My name is Stephen Morris and I help start-ups and scale-ups get momentum in their marketing and pipeline. Like to know more? Book a discovery call: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/discovery/] Or sign-up to 'The Prompt' my monthly newsletter: https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/ [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk/signup/] If you'd like to talk about how podcasts can build reach, enhance authority and fuel your pipeline, visit: www.curiousbusiness.co.uk [https://www.curiousbusiness.co.uk].