The Cost of Going Backward: HUD's New Approach to Homelessness

The Cost of Going Backward: HUD's New Approach to Homelessness

HUD recently released its 2026 Continuum of Care (CoC) Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO), signaling a major shift in federal homelessness policy. In this special episode of Defining Affordable, Jaime and Robin examine the proposed changes, the evidence behind them, and what they could mean for communities across the country. HUD argues that Housing First has failed and proposes a renewed emphasis on transitional housing, recovery-focused programs, and new measures of self-sufficiency. But do the data support that conclusion? Drawing on decades of research, local experience, and examples from communities across the nation, Jaime breaks down the claims made in the NOFO and explores why many housing professionals are concerned that these changes could reverse hard-won progress in reducing homelessness and improving housing stability. The conversation examines the real costs of homelessness, the effectiveness of Housing First and Permanent Supportive Housing, and the potential consequences of moving away from evidence-based approaches that have helped communities achieve measurable results. Resources referenced during the episode, including opportunities for advocacy and further reading, are included below. SOURCES & FURTHER READING HUD'S 2026 CONTINUUM OF CARE NOFO * HUD News Release — HUD Announces 2026 Continuum of Care Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) * https://www.hud.gov/news/hud-no-26-038 [https://www.hud.gov/news/hud-no-26-038] * HUD — FY 2026 Continuum of Care Competition Stakeholder Memo * https://www.hud.gov/sites/default/files/OCHCO/documents/Stakeholder-Memo.pdf [https://www.hud.gov/sites/default/files/OCHCO/documents/Stakeholder-Memo.pdf] * National Alliance to End Homelessness — FY 2026 Continuum of Care Competition NOFO Analysis * https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/FY2026-Continuum-of-Care-Competition-NOFO-Analysis.pdf [https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/FY2026-Continuum-of-Care-Competition-NOFO-Analysis.pdf] * National Coalition for the Homeless — HUD Policy Updates and Analysis * https://nationalhomeless.org/tag/hud/ [https://nationalhomeless.org/tag/hud/] * Shelterforce — Judge Blocks HUD Overhaul of Federal Funding for Homelessness Services * https://shelterforce.org/2026/01/23/judge-blocks-hud-overhaul-federal-funding-for-homelessness-services/ [https://shelterforce.org/2026/01/23/judge-blocks-hud-overhaul-federal-funding-for-homelessness-services/] * Public Rights Project — National Alliance to End Homelessness v. HUD: Fact Sheet * https://www.publicrightsproject.org/naeh-v-hud-fact-sheet/ [https://www.publicrightsproject.org/naeh-v-hud-fact-sheet/] HOUSING FIRST & PERMANENT SUPPORTIVE HOUSING * Urban Institute — Housing First Is Still the Best Approach to Ending Homelessness * https://housingmatters.urban.org/articles-features/housing-first-still-best-approach-ending-homelessness [https://housingmatters.urban.org/articles-features/housing-first-still-best-approach-ending-homelessness] * National Alliance to End Homelessness — Cost Savings from Permanent Supportive Housing * https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Cost-Savings-from-PSH.pdf [https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Cost-Savings-from-PSH.pdf] * Jamboree Housing Corporation — Permanent Housing Ends Homelessness * https://www.jamboreehousing.com/pages/permanent-housing-ends-homelessness-presentations [https://www.jamboreehousing.com/pages/permanent-housing-ends-homelessness-presentations] * National Center for Biotechnology Information — Housing First Is Associated with Reduced Use of Emergency Medical Services * https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6446444/ [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6446444/] HOMELESSNESS, HEALTH, & HOUSING STABILITY * California Policy Lab — Health Conditions Among Unsheltered Adults in the United States * https://capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Health-Conditions-Among-Unsheltered-Adults-in-the-US.pdf [https://capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Health-Conditions-Among-Unsheltered-Adults-in-the-US.pdf] * Voice of San Diego — Project 25: The Pilot Project Aimed at San Diego's Most Difficult Homeless Cases Showed Promise—Then Died * https://voiceofsandiego.org/2022/10/17/project-25-the-pilot-project-aimed-at-san-diegos-most-difficult-homeless-cases-showed-promise-then-died/ [https://voiceofsandiego.org/2022/10/17/project-25-the-pilot-project-aimed-at-san-diegos-most-difficult-homeless-cases-showed-promise-then-died/] HARM REDUCTION * American Academy of HIV Medicine — Syringe Exchange and Harm Reduction * https://aahivm.org/syringe-exchange-harm-reduction/ [https://aahivm.org/syringe-exchange-harm-reduction/] * NPR — 5 Years After Indiana's Historic HIV Outbreak, Many Rural Areas Remain at Risk * https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/16/801720966/5-years-after-indianas-historic-hiv-outbreak-many-rural-places-remain-at-risk [https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/16/801720966/5-years-after-indianas-historic-hiv-outbreak-many-rural-places-remain-at-risk] RENT CONTROL * ScienceDirect — Rent Control Effects Through the Lens of Empirical Research: An Almost Complete Review of the Literature * https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137724000020 [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137724000020] HOUSING AFFORDABILITY & RENT TRENDS * Realtor.com — January 2026 Rent Report * https://www.realtor.com/research/january-2026-rent/ [https://www.realtor.com/research/january-2026-rent/] * In2013Dollars.com — Historical Rent Inflation Data * https://www.in2013dollars.com/Rent-of-primary-residence/price-inflation [https://www.in2013dollars.com/Rent-of-primary-residence/price-inflation] TAKE ACTION CONTACT YOUR REPRESENTATIVES Share your thoughts on the proposed FY 2026 Continuum of Care NOFO with your elected officials: https://www.votervoice.net/CSH/Campaigns/137566/Respond [https://www.votervoice.net/CSH/Campaigns/137566/Respond] EXPLORE THE IMPACT See how the proposed NOFO changes could affect communities across the country: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/naeh1302/viz/FY26NOFOImpactAnalysis/Dashboard1#1 [https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/naeh1302/viz/FY26NOFOImpactAnalysis/Dashboard1#1]

If the Economy Is Booming, Why Does Everything Feel Harder?

In our last episode, Work vs. Wealth: Why Homeownership Keeps Moving Out of Reach, we explored the widening gap between wealth and work, making homeownership increasingly difficult to attain. In this follow-up conversation, Robin and Jaime zoom out to examine the broader economic forces behind that trend. If inflation is under control, why do groceries, insurance, and housing feel so much more expensive? If the economy is booming, why do so many people feel like they're working harder just to stay in the same place? To understand that disconnect, Robin and Jaime explore the concept of a K-shaped economy—a framework that helps explain why economic growth can feel very different depending on whether your income comes from assets or wages. Along the way, they discuss the difference between asset inflation and real wealth, why economic indicators often feel disconnected from everyday experience, and how policies designed to stimulate the economy can produce very different outcomes depending on which side of the K you're on. This episode provides the economic context behind the housing affordability challenges discussed in our previous episode—and helps explain why so many people feel like the numbers don't match reality. SOURCES & FURTHER READING UNDERSTANDING THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY * Encyclopædia Britannica: What Is a K-Shaped Economy? * https://www.britannica.com/money/k-shaped-economy [https://www.britannica.com/money/k-shaped-economy] INCOME INEQUALITY & WEALTH GAPS * Pew Research Center: Wealth Gaps Within Racial and Ethnic Groups * https://www.pewresearch.org/2023/12/04/wealth-gaps-within-racial-and-ethnic-groups/ [https://www.pewresearch.org/2023/12/04/wealth-gaps-within-racial-and-ethnic-groups/] * Pew Research Center: Economic Inequality Seen as a Major Challenge Around the World * https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/01/09/economic-inequality-seen-as-major-challenge-around-the-world/ [https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/01/09/economic-inequality-seen-as-major-challenge-around-the-world/] HOUSING, HOMEOWNERSHIP & HOUSING FINANCE * Urban Institute: The Future of Homeownership and Housing Finance * https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2025-06/The_Future_of_Homeownership_and_Housing_Finance.pdf [https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2025-06/The_Future_of_Homeownership_and_Housing_Finance.pdf] * Urban Institute: How Expanding Housing Supply and Supporting Demand Can Increase Homeownership * https://www.urban.org/research/publication/how-expanding-housing-supply-and-supporting-demand-can-increase-homeownership [https://www.urban.org/research/publication/how-expanding-housing-supply-and-supporting-demand-can-increase-homeownership] 50-YEAR MORTGAGES * NPR Planet Money: Is a 50-Year Mortgage Really That Much Crazier Than a 30-Year One? * https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2025/11/18/g-s1-98040/is-a-50-year-mortgage-really-that-much-crazier-than-a-30-year-one [https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2025/11/18/g-s1-98040/is-a-50-year-mortgage-really-that-much-crazier-than-a-30-year-one] FEATURED RESOURCE: GARY STEVENSON Robin references the work of former interest rate trader and economic commentator Gary Stevenson throughout this episode. * The Economy Is Rigged for Billionaires (Prof G Podcast featuring Gary Stevenson) * https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-economy-is-rigged-for-billionaires-ft-gary-stevenson/id1498802610?i=1000766587939 [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-economy-is-rigged-for-billionaires-ft-gary-stevenson/id1498802610?i=1000766587939] * Gary's Economics (YouTube Channel) * https://www.youtube.com/garyseconomics [https://www.youtube.com/garyseconomics] FEATURED RESOURCE: GABRIEL ZUCMAN Economist Gabriel Zucman is one of the leading researchers on wealth inequality, taxation, and global wealth concentration. * Gabriel Zucman's Website & Research * https://gabriel-zucman.eu/ [https://gabriel-zucman.eu/] * A Blueprint for a Coordinated Minimum Effective Taxation Standard for Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals * https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/report-g20.pdf [https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/report-g20.pdf] NEW ZEALAND: HOUSING, AUSTERITY & SOCIAL POLICY During the episode, Robin and Jaime discuss how other countries are grappling with many of the same challenges around housing affordability, inequality, and economic policy. * Per Capita: New Zealand Shows Austerity and Interest Rate Hikes Won't Cure Australia's Sticky Inflation * https://percapita.org.au/new-zealand-shows-austerity-and-interest-rate-hikes-wont-cure-australias-sticky-inflation/ [https://percapita.org.au/new-zealand-shows-austerity-and-interest-rate-hikes-wont-cure-australias-sticky-inflation/] * Associated Press: New Zealand Public Sector Job Cuts * https://apnews.com/article/public-sector-job-cuts-new-zealand-willis-c862d58680c108ffa8bdb9095292f960 [https://apnews.com/article/public-sector-job-cuts-new-zealand-willis-c862d58680c108ffa8bdb9095292f960] * Green Party of New Zealand: Public Housing Reform Cuts Costs at the Expense of Our Most Vulnerable * https://www.greens.org.nz/national_s_public_housing_reform_cuts_costs_at_the_expense_of_our_most_vulnerable [https://www.greens.org.nz/national_s_public_housing_reform_cuts_costs_at_the_expense_of_our_most_vulnerable] * Radio New Zealand: Budget 2026 a Washout for Struggling Families, Advocates Say * https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/596645/budget-2026-a-washout-for-struggling-families-advocates-say [https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/596645/budget-2026-a-washout-for-struggling-families-advocates-say] * Radio New Zealand: Move-On Orders Will Criminalise Children Experiencing Homelessness, Public Health Experts Say * https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/te-manu-korihi/598256/move-on-orders-will-criminalise-children-experiencing-homelessness-public-health-experts [https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/te-manu-korihi/598256/move-on-orders-will-criminalise-children-experiencing-homelessness-public-health-experts]

Work Vs. Wealth: Why Homeownership Keeps Moving Out of Reach

For decades, homeownership was one of the primary ways Americans built wealth. Today, even people with good jobs and steady incomes are finding it increasingly difficult to buy a home. In this episode, Robin and Jaime explore how we got here. They unpack the housing boom and crash of 2008, the rise of mortgage-backed securities, and the role investors played in reshaping the housing market. Along the way, they examine a surprising reality of the pre-crash era: borrowers could often qualify for mortgages with little to no income verification and no down payment at all. The conversation also challenges a common political talking point—that institutional investors are the primary reason homeownership is out of reach. While investors are certainly part of the story, the deeper issue lies in decades of policy decisions that have widened the gap between wealth and work. As Robin puts it, opportunities created by wealth are growing exponentially, while opportunities created by work are shrinking. What does that mean for the future of homeownership—and is there still a path forward? In Part 1 of this two-part series, we examine how we got here. In Part 2, we'll explore emerging models that could help more people build wealth and access homeownership in a changing economy. SOURCES & CONTINUED READING MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (MBS) * Handbook Chapter on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) * https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Documents/Handbook_chapter_on_MBS_slides_final.pdf [https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Documents/Handbook_chapter_on_MBS_slides_final.pdf] THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS * Federal Reserve History: The Great Recession and Its Aftermath * https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-and-its-aftermath [https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-and-its-aftermath] * History.com: What Caused the 2008 Financial Crisis? * https://www.history.com/articles/2008-financial-crisis-causes [https://www.history.com/articles/2008-financial-crisis-causes] K-SHAPED ECONOMY * Encyclopædia Britannica: What Is a K-Shaped Economy? * https://www.britannica.com/money/k-shaped-economy [https://www.britannica.com/money/k-shaped-economy] * Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Explaining the K-Shaped Economy: What's Behind the Divide? * https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/explaining-the-k-shaped-economy-whats-behind-the-divide/ [https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/explaining-the-k-shaped-economy-whats-behind-the-divide/]

Strong Opinions, Weak Facts: Debunking Homelessness Myths

What if everything you thought you knew about homelessness was wrong? Jaime and Robin tackle some of the most common — and most harmful — myths surrounding homelessness, using data and policy history to separate fact from fear-driven narratives. From the misconception that homelessness is caused by “bad choices” or drug use, to the belief that people “just don’t want help,” this conversation digs into the real drivers of housing insecurity: skyrocketing rents, a housing shortage, and decades of eroding social safety nets. Along the way, they unpack why veterans programs have succeeded, why homelessness is rising among seniors and families, and why compassion backed by evidence matters more than ever. If you’ve ever wondered how people end up unhoused — or why the crisis keeps growing — this episode will challenge assumptions and change the way you see homelessness in America. Sources and Further Reading: American Addiction Centers. “Substance Abuse by City.” American Addiction Centers, 2023, https://americanaddictioncenters.org/blog/substance-abuse-by-city [https://americanaddictioncenters.org/blog/substance-abuse-by-city] Addiction Center. “Top 10 States With the Highest Overdose Rates.” AddictionCenter.com, https://www.addictioncenter.com/community/top-10-states-highest-overdose/ [https://www.addictioncenter.com/community/top-10-states-highest-overdose/] California Health Care Foundation / CalMatters. “Federal Homelessness Report Delayed Amid National Housing Crisis.” CalMatters, May 2026, https://calmatters.org/housing/homelessness/2026/05/homelessness-report-delayed/ [https://calmatters.org/housing/homelessness/2026/05/homelessness-report-delayed/] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Drug Overdose Deaths by State.” CDC National Center for Health Statistics, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/state-stats/deaths/drug-overdose.html [https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/state-stats/deaths/drug-overdose.html] Culhane, Dennis, et al. “California Statewide Study of People Experiencing Homelessness (CASPEH).” National Library of Medicine / NIH, 2023, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10574586/ [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10574586/] National Alliance to End Homelessness. “State of Homelessness: 2024 Edition.” EndHomelessness.org, https://endhomelessness.org/state-of-homelessness/ [https://endhomelessness.org/state-of-homelessness/] National Alliance to End Homelessness. “Employed and Experiencing Homelessness: What the Numbers Show.” EndHomelessness.org, https://endhomelessness.org/blog/employed-and-experiencing-homelessness-what-the-numbers-show/ [https://endhomelessness.org/blog/employed-and-experiencing-homelessness-what-the-numbers-show/] NBC San Diego. “Nevada Settles ‘Homeless Dumping’ Lawsuit.” NBC San Diego, https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/nevada-settles-homeless-dumping-lawsuit/62120/ [https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/nevada-settles-homeless-dumping-lawsuit/62120/] Pew Charitable Trusts. “How Housing Costs Drive Levels of Homelessness.” Pew Research & Analysis, Aug. 22, 2023, https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2023/08/22/how-housing-costs-drive-levels-of-homelessness [https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2023/08/22/how-housing-costs-drive-levels-of-homelessness] Los Angeles Times. “West Virginia vs. Los Angeles: Addiction and Homelessness.” Los Angeles Times, Oct. 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/homeless-housing/story/2023-10-05/drug-addiction-homelessness-opioids-west-virginia-vs-los-angeles [https://www.latimes.com/homeless-housing/story/2023-10-05/drug-addiction-homelessness-opioids-west-virginia-vs-los-angeles] Los Angeles Times. “Police Moved Homeless People Out of Downtown San Diego.” Los Angeles Times Archives, May 10, 1990, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-05-10-me-1536-story.html [https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-05-10-me-1536-story.html] Kaiser Family Foundation. “Five Key Facts About People Experiencing Homelessness.” KFF, https://www.kff.org/medicaid/five-key-facts-about-people-experiencing-homelessness/ [https://www.kff.org/medicaid/five-key-facts-about-people-experiencing-homelessness/] United States Interagency Council on Homelessness. “Data & Trends.” USICH.gov, https://usich.gov/guidance-reports-data/data-trends [https://usich.gov/guidance-reports-data/data-trends] U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. “How We Can End Veteran Homelessness.” VA.gov, https://department.va.gov/homeless/how-we-can-end-veteran-homelessness/ [https://department.va.gov/homeless/how-we-can-end-veteran-homelessness/]

California Governor Candidates on Housing: What They’re Actually Proposing

California’s housing shortage and affordability problems are front and center in the 2026 governor’s race. In this episode of Defining Affordable, Jaime and Robin break down where the top candidates stand on housing affordability, homelessness, zoning reform, accountability, and development policy. From deregulation and transit-oriented development to tenant protections and first-time homeownership, the candidates offer very different solutions to the same crisis. We unpack the policies, discuss what feels realistic, and share our thoughts on what the candidates gets right — and wrong — when it comes to housing. WORKS CITED CalMatters. “California’s Top Governor Candidates Are Finally Talking About Housing.” CalMatters, May 2026. https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/05/california-governor-housing-2026-yimby/ [https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/05/california-governor-housing-2026-yimby/] CalMatters. “Where California Governor Candidates Stand on Homelessness.” CalMatters, May 2026. https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/05/ca-governor-candidates-homelessness/ [https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/05/ca-governor-candidates-homelessness/] CalMatters. “HUD PIT Count 2024.” CalMatters, January 2025. https://calmatters.org/housing/homelessness/2025/01/hud-pit-count-2024/ [https://calmatters.org/housing/homelessness/2025/01/hud-pit-count-2024/] Los Angeles Times. “2026 California Governor Candidate Housing & Homelessness Guide.” Los Angeles Times, May 2026. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-05-01/2026-california-election-governor-candidates-housing-homelessness-voter-guide [https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-05-01/2026-california-election-governor-candidates-housing-homelessness-voter-guide] Politico. “Buckshot or Moonshot? Democratic Candidates to Replace Newsom Offer Grand Plans for More Housing.” Politico, May 2026. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/07/buckshot-or-moonshot-dem-candidates-to-replace-newsom-offer-grand-plans-for-more-housing-00909349 [https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/07/buckshot-or-moonshot-dem-candidates-to-replace-newsom-offer-grand-plans-for-more-housing-00909349] RAND Corporation. Building Affordable Housing in California Faster and More Efficiently. RAND, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3743-1.html [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3743-1.html] Regional Task Force on Homelessness. “New RTFH Data Shows That in November the Number of People Who Moved Off the Streets and Into Housing Outpaced the Number of People Who Fell Into Homelessness.” RTFHSD.org. https://www.rtfhsd.org/new-rtfh-data-shows-that-in-november-the-number-of-people-who-moved-off-the-streets-and-into-housing-outpaced-the-number-of-people-who-fell-into-homelessness/ [https://www.rtfhsd.org/new-rtfh-data-shows-that-in-november-the-number-of-people-who-moved-off-the-streets-and-into-housing-outpaced-the-number-of-people-who-fell-into-homelessness/] CANDIDATE WEBSITES Xavier Becerra https://www.xbvolunteer.com/ [https://www.xbvolunteer.com/?utm_source=chatgpt.com] Steve Hilton https://stevehiltonforgovernor.com/ [https://stevehiltonforgovernor.com/?utm_source=chatgpt.com] Chad Bianco https://www.biancoforgovernor.com/ [https://www.biancoforgovernor.com/] Matt Mahan https://www.mahanforcalifornia.com/ [https://www.mahanforcalifornia.com/] Katie Porter https://katieporter.com/ [https://katieporter.com/] Tom Steyer https://www.tomsteyer.com/ [https://www.tomsteyer.com/]