Living with a 50% P(AI Doom) — Liron Shapira and Peter Clarke

Living with a 50% P(AI Doom) — Liron Shapira and Peter Clarke

Peter Clarke (Team Futurism [https://substack.com/@teamfuturism]) invited me on his podcast to probe the worldview of a Yudkowskian, and I ended up explaining how my 50% P(Doom) and 10% P(Foom) informs my choices. Peter and I met at LessOnline 2026, where he was one of the participants in a live Jubilee-style debate about x-risk. This one’s a little tamer, but we still cover plenty of ground, like: Why nuclear risk is underrated yet AI doom overshadows it; Why nobody at AI summits is appropriately freaked out; How Yudkowsky’s data center “airstrike” claim gets mischaracterized; Why a superintelligence that doesn’t already value humanity won’t spare us; And the “Icarus curve”, my techno-optimist forecast pre-superintelligence. Subscribe to the Team Futurism podcast —https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554 [https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554] Timestamps 00:00:00 — Welcoming Liron on Team Futurism 00:00:38 — How Liron Got Yudkowsky-Pilled 00:04:11 — AI 2027 and the Next Qualitative Breakthrough 00:05:52 — What’s Your P(Doom)? 00:10:22 — Why Isn’t Everyone Freaked Out? 00:13:09 — How Should We Then Live? 00:16:22 — Setting the Record Straight on Yudkowsky’s “Airstrike” Claims 00:20:54 — Two Doom Buckets: Misuse vs. Rogue AI 00:24:25 — The Bioweapon Kill Scenario 00:29:02 — The “Benevolent God” Cope 00:33:06 — Epistemology: What We’re Allowed to Know 00:40:08 — Dario’s Country of Geniuses in a Data Center 00:44:37 — The Icarus Curve 00:47:17 — Meaning and Purpose in the AI Era 00:49:32 — Wrap-Up Links Team Futurism on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554 [https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554] Peter Clarke on X — https://x.com/heypeterclarke [https://x.com/heypeterclarke] Liron vs. 9 Rationalists at LessOnline 2026 (the “Surrounded” debate with Peter) — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/will-ai-actually-destroy-humanity [https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/will-ai-actually-destroy-humanity] AI 2027 — https://ai-2027.com/ [https://ai-2027.com/] “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/ [https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/] Species | Documenting AGI, Drew Spartz’s channel — https://www.youtube.com/@AISpecies [https://www.youtube.com/@AISpecies] Dario Amodei’s “Machines of Loving Grace” — https://darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace [https://darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Let's CALL OUT the AI Doom “Enablers” Joining OpenAI & Anthropic — Dr. Holly Elmore, PauseAI US

Dr. Holly Elmore, executive director of PauseAI US, is done giving AI insiders the benefit of the doubt. In this spicy episode, Holly calls out a number of respected figures in the AI safety community for allegedly “selling out” the cause: Effective Altruists, Anthropic & OpenAI employees, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Zvi Mowshowitz—and even yours truly! Holly isn’t afraid to psychoanalyze her subjects, which I push back on, but I can’t deny she has a track record of pushing the Overton window and surfacing uncomfortable truths. Does Holly’s approach risk burning bridges with allies for little benefit, or does AI safety need a moral conscience willing to call out the rot nobody else will? Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:48 — Introducing Holly Elmore 00:02:20 — Why Holly Moved to DC 00:06:03 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 00:07:18 — How We Got Here: EA, Rationality, AI Alignment 00:16:32 — “If Anyone Builds It” and LessWrong’s Missing Mood 00:21:47 — Holly Supports the Government’s Fable Crackdown 00:33:39 — Beef: Dean Ball (OpenAI) 00:53:09 — Beef: Eliezer Yudkowsky 00:56:14 — Beef: Zvi Mowshowitz 01:11:50 — Beef: Liron Shapira! 01:16:15 — Beef: Nirit Weiss-Blatt (Dr. Techlash) Being “Bad Faith” 01:19:31 — Anthropic Took Over EA 01:22:04 — Holly’s Basilisk: What If Building Superintelligence Becomes a Crime? 01:32:35 — Beef: Amanda Askell, the “Mother of Claude” 01:39:05 — Beef: Daniela Amodei, Co-Founder of Anthropic 01:40:23 — Beef: Joe Carlsmith, Member of Technical Staff at Anthropic 01:49:39 — Beef: Open Philanthropy / Coefficient Giving, Ben Goldhaber 01:54:28 — Wrap-Up Links * Support PauseAI US: https://www.pauseai-us.org/ [https://www.pauseai-us.org/] * Holly on Twitter/X: https://x.com/ilex_ulmus [https://x.com/ilex_ulmus] * Joe Carlsmith’s “Leaving Open Philanthropy, going to Anthropic” post: https://joecarlsmith.com/2025/11/03/leaving-open-philanthropy-going-to-anthropic/ [https://joecarlsmith.com/2025/11/03/leaving-open-philanthropy-going-to-anthropic/] * Dean Ball joins OpenAI announcement (FAI post): https://www.thefai.org/posts/dean-ball-joins-openai-as-head-of-strategic-futures [https://www.thefai.org/posts/dean-ball-joins-openai-as-head-of-strategic-futures] --- Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Even 0.1% P(Doom) Is Unacceptable — World-Class Coder Casey Muratori

Casey Muratori is one of the top programming educators on YouTube, with a four-decade career building videogames and popular videogame software. We cover his positions on crypto, programming, AI’s impact on programming, and whether he takes the AI doom threat seriously. Casey’s instinct is to break technology down like an engineer until he knows exactly how it’ll operate. Does that approach break down in the modern AI paradigm? This is a ride on the Doom Train™ that lands on a wholly unexpected destination. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:31 — Introducing Casey Muratori 00:02:07 — Recap of Crypto Series: Is Crypto Dead? 00:11:46 — On Programming & Why Coding Agents Don't Faze Casey 00:18:51 — Coding Is a Craft: Drum Machine Example 00:36:24 — Pivoting to AI: Can We Forecast Its Capabilities? 00:43:36 — Debating if AI Can Acquire Taste 00:54:59 — What's Your P(Doom)™? 01:04:11 — Even 0.1% X-Risk Is Unacceptable 01:07:34 — Modeling Uncertainty: Bayesianism vs "Tie Goes to the Catastrophe" 01:09:34 — Is This Pascal's Wager? 01:17:12 — Casey's (Cynical) Mainline Scenario 01:24:22 — Would You Un-Invent the Internet? 01:27:18 — Let's Ride the Doom Train 🚂 01:27:51 — Can AI Become Ridiculously Powerful? 01:29:11 — Will AI Preserve Humanity (Orthogonality Thesis)? 01:32:26 — Will AI Seek Power (Instrumental Convergence)? 01:36:06 — Wrap-Up Links Casey’s podcast, Wading Through AI (with Demetri Spanos) — https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEMXAbCVnmY6U_pA-7GKuP9xiv9utLaP4 [https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEMXAbCVnmY6U_pA-7GKuP9xiv9utLaP4] Casey’s YouTube channel, Molly Rocket — https://www.youtube.com/@MollyRocket [https://www.youtube.com/@MollyRocket] @cmuratori (Casey Muratori) on X — https://x.com/cmuratori [https://x.com/cmuratori] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Robert Wright's New Book, The God Test, Launches Today. What's His P(We Pass)?

Bestselling author Robert Wright has landed on a sobering conclusion: on our current trajectory, AI dystopia is likely within eight years. We get into his P(Doom), his case for slowing down, why racing China could backfire into authoritarianism here at home, and why he thinks evolution itself might have a purpose. Bob is the author of The Moral Animal and Nonzero, a Pulitzer finalist, and hosts the excellent Nonzero podcast. Get his new book, The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:50 — Introducing Robert Wright 00:03:21 — What Is The God Test? 00:04:59 — AI as Evolutionary Force, Not Normal Technology 00:07:34 — AI Heaven vs AI Hell 00:09:09 — Bob's Background: From Hinton in 1983 to Today 00:16:09 — What's Your P(Doom)?™ 00:20:09 — The Mainline Scenario: Dystopia in 8 Years 00:22:04 — Destabilization and the Road to Authoritarianism 00:25:35 — Why Racing China Backfires 00:28:37 — Slowing Down AI + Would Bob Support PauseAI? 00:32:38 — Intellidynamics and Why AIs Collude 00:44:44 — Hinton's Warning and How LLMs Discover Meaning 00:53:48 — Symbol Grounding and Killing Searle's Chinese Room 01:02:03 — Let's Talk About God 01:10:14 — Orthogonality, Power, and the Concentration Problem 01:16:31 — Wrap-Up Links Get Bob’s new book, “The God Test” — https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-God-Test/Robert-Wright/9781668061657 [https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-God-Test/Robert-Wright/9781668061657] Follow Bob on X — https://x.com/robertwrighter [https://x.com/robertwrighter] “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares (referenced) — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com [https://ifanyonebuildsit.com] Join the Doom Debates Discord — https://discord.gg/g2X8h5UCrU [https://discord.gg/g2X8h5UCrU] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Will AI Actually Destroy Humanity? Liron vs 9 Rationalists at LessOnline 2026

Doom Debates presents an interactive debate using Jubilee’s popular “Surrounded” format, taped live at LessOnline 2026! I (Liron) claim AI will likely doom us to extinction because: * Godlike ASI is coming soon * We won’t align the first ASIs * Even with aligned ASI, the equilibrium is lethal LessOnline attendees challenge me on each sub-claim one debater at a time, with the audience voting on when to rotate. Recorded on June 6th in Berkeley, CA. Links LessOnline 2026, the conference where this was recorded — https://less.online [https://less.online] AI 2027, the forecast referenced on timelines — https://ai-2027.com [https://ai-2027.com] Robin Hanson on the “dream time” (the era of slack before resources tighten) — https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html [https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/this-is-the-dream-time.html] Join the Doom Debates Discord —https://discord.gg/j4zQ8UaQw2 [https://discord.gg/j4zQ8UaQw2] Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com [https://doomdebates.com/] and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates [https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates], or to really take things to the next level: Donate [https://doomdebates.com/donate] 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe [https://lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]