The Rookies We Got Wrong with Addison Hayes

The Rookies We Got Wrong with Addison Hayes

Fantasy analysts don't love admitting they got it wrong, but owning your misses is how you get better. Addison Hayes from Dynasty League Football walks through the players who scored highly in his Marker System but still busted in the NFL, breaking down what his model caught, what it missed, and what he's still learning. Jeff adds a few of his own misses, including that one trade he still regrets. 💡 Key Takeaways * How the Marker System uses production, athleticism, and draft capital checkboxes to grade college prospects * Corey Davis is the archetype for why small school production remains a persistent source of model error * The N'Keal Harry List: what it is, why it exists, and who's on it in 2026 * The Ladd McConkey List: the positive flip side, and why Makai Lemon is the only 2026 wide receiver on it * Why Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins are injury misses, not model failures * Jeff's personal misses: Jalen Reagor, Zach Wilson, Henry Ruggs, and that Puka Nacua trade * What the 2026 class's historically low average grade should tell dynasty managers heading into rookie drafts ⏱️ Chapters/Timestamps 00:00 – Why we need to talk about our misses 07:33 – Markers: production, athleticism & draft capital 16:41 – Adjustments to raw production that tell the real story 24:11 – Corey Davis and the small school problem 26:34 – N'Keal Harry and the advanced marker gap 28:55 – Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, and the injury caveat 33:23 – Jadarian Price and the CEH comparison 44:11 – Small school patterns and the zone-coverage signal 47:07 – Analytics vs. film: where each approach has blind spots 51:49 – Jeff's misses: Reagor, Darnold, Wilson, Ruggs, and Puka Nacua 57:51 – Lessons for dynasty managers and a warning for 2026 1:13:17 – Where to find Addison's work 🔗 Links Mentioned * themarkersystem.com [https://www.themarkersystem.com]  * Dynasty League Football [https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/]  * DLF YouTube Channel [https://www.youtube.com/@DynastyLeagueFootball]  * Follow Addison on Twitter/X [https://x.com/amazehayes_]  * Jeff's Dynasty Rankings [https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2026&userId=978336] on Footballguys * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com]  * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock]  * Dynasty Compass website [https://www.dynastycompass.com]  👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.

Buy, Sell, or Hold? Navigating the Dynasty Trade Market with Theo Gremminger

Rookie drafts aren't the only way to improve your dynasty roster this offseason. Theo Gremminger from Fantasy Points joins Jeff to survey the dynasty trade landscape right now: who to target, what to pay, who to move, and which players are worth holding a little longer. Knowing where the value gaps are lets you trade with conviction and avoid the traps the market hasn't priced in, yet. Theo covers rookie landing spot winners and losers, veteran buy targets for contenders, the rebuild playbook, players he'd be selling today, and why the biggest mistake managers make in May has nothing to do with individual players. 💡 Key Takeaways * Carnell Tate's landing spot is better than the market appreciates — Brian Daboll's track record with first-season receivers is a real edge. * David Montgomery and Terry McLaurin are win-now targets available at an age discount that won't last. * Year-two players are being overpriced; the Garrett Wilson and Ladd McConkey cautionary tales apply to some big names right now. * Bucky Irving is a sell: injuries, the Kenneth Gainwell signing, and off-field concerns combine for a souring outlook. * For rebuilders, 2027 seconds may be more valuable than many managers realize given the projected class and easier to obtain than first-rounders. * Tight end upside at a deep discount is offered by Eli Raridon, Oscar Delp, Max Klare and Terrance Ferguson. * Don't feel pressure to fill out your roster in May. You're not setting a lineup until September Acquire value and make the right moves in July and August. ⏱️ Chapters 00:00 – Introduction 00:49 – Rookie landing spot winners: Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Jadarian Price, Kenyon Sadiq 04:33 – Rookie landing spot losers: Omar Cooper, Day 2 & 3 running backs 06:59 – The buy side: David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, Zay Flowers 12:00 – What to pay: going rates and trade philosophy 15:05 – The rebuild side: handcuffs, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck, 2027 picks 19:15 – The sell side: Bucky Irving, George Kittle, and the "no untouchables" rule 21:33 – Contenders: tiering up, two-for-ones, and year-two traps 30:43 – Depth targets: Jordan Addison, Parker Washington, rookie stashes 33:34 – The tight end evolution: Rams TE room, Eli Raridon, Oscar Delp 41:09 – The hold side: A.J. Brown, Jayden Reed, Chris Godwin, Jonathan Brooks 46:00 – Biggest mistake dynasty managers make this time of year 🔗 Links Mentioned * Fantasy Points [https://fantasypoints.com]  * Fantasy Points Fantasy Football YouTube  [https://www.youtube.com/@FantasyPoints] * Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@FantasyPointsDynasty]  * Follow Theo on Twitter/X [https://x.com/TheOGfantasy]  * Jeff's Dynasty Rankings [https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2026&userId=978336]  * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock]  * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com]  👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.

Don't Let These Rookies Fall with Derek Brown

Can you believe drafters are sleeping on these guys? Knowing which rookies have a realistic path to playing time can turn a late-round pick or a waiver claim into real dynasty equity. Yet, many managers are letting these guys fall down the draft board. After this episode, you'll know exactly which 2026 rookies to grab before your leaguemates figure it out. Derek Brown, senior analyst at FantasyPros, joins Jeff Blaylock to dive deep into the 2026 rookie class and surface the late-round rookie picks dynasty managers should be drafting while their league mates draft less impactful players. From Chase Roberts and Bryce Lance to Oscar Delp, Eli Raridon, and Matthew Hibner, this is the episode for managers hunting first-round talent with fourth and fifth-round picks. 💡 Key Takeaways * Path to playing time is the key to deciding which late-round rookie is worth drafting. * DBro's favorite WR sleepers include Chase Roberts, CJ Daniels, Eric Rivers and Kevin Coleman Jr., who he calls "South Beach Jayden Reed." * Bryce Lance is available in the third and fourth round of rookie drafts despite ranking sixth in yards per route run among all FBS and FCS receivers last year — DBro sees a Christian Watson 2.0 with a clear path to starting in New Orleans. * High-end athleticism at tight end is a prerequisite for dynasty value, not just a bonus. DBro won't draft a TE who runs a 4.8 40 or slower. * Oscar Delp and Eli Raridon, DBro's two most undervalued players in this class, are falling to the third and fourth round of rookie drafts when both could be long-term starting tight ends. * DBro is most excited about tight ends in the fifth round and beyond of rookie drafts. He's targeting Seydou Traore, Matthew Hibner and Jaren Kanak. * Seth McGowan, one of DBro's favorite late-round RBs, is worth drafting as a potential RB2 in Indy, and Eli Heidenreich is a late-round RB who might end up as a starting slot receiver. * DBro is fading Demond Claiborne and Adam Randall despite the buzz, citing contact avoidance and poor tackle-breaking metrics that don't match the hype. * Cole Payton is DBro's sleeper quarterback pick for Superflex leagues, while Haynes King is the waiver wire name to stash. ⏱️ Chapters/Timestamps 00:00 – Introduction 08:12 – Finding first-round talent with late-round picks 14:31 – WRs: Chase Roberts & Bryce Lance 23:17 – Kevin Coleman Jr. and the Miami Dolphins' WR mess 28:04 – "TikTok footwork," contested catch rate, and what actually translates 36:04 – CJ Daniels & Eric Rivers 42:34 – TEs: Athleticism as a filter 48:17 – Oscar Delp & Eli Raridon 55:13 – Matt Hibner & Jaren Kanak 01:02:54 – RBs: Seth McGowan & Eli Heidenreich 01:10:44 – QBs: Cole Payton & Haynes King in Superflex 01:15:57 – DBro's round-by-round final picks 🔗 Links Mentioned * FantasyPros [https://www.fantasypros.com]  * FP's YouTube Dynasty Channel [https://www.youtube.com/@FantasyProsDynasty]  * Follow Derek Brown on Twitter/X [https://x.com/DBro_FFB]  * Jeff's Dynasty Rankings [https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2026&userId=978336] at Footballguys * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com/]  * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock] * Dynasty Compass website [https://www.dynastycompass.com]  👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.

The Art & Science of Dynasty Rankings with Jake Ciely

Jake Ciely of The Athletic has been doing fantasy football rankings for 15 years, and one of his most honest admissions is that he kind of hates them. Not because they aren't useful, but because a ranked list can't convey everything a manager actually needs to know. Understanding what rankings can and can't tell you changes how you use them. In this episode, Jeff and Jake walk through how dynasty rankings get built, why the current season deserves more weight than most dynasty managers give it, and what question you should be asking yourself every time you open a rankings page. 💡 Key Takeaways * Rankings are a vacuum snapshot — they tell you what a ranker prefers if all else is equal, not what you should do for your specific team. * Tiers communicate more than order; a player ranked 21 and a player ranked 28 in the same tier are essentially interchangeable, and a good ranker wants you to know that. * Dynasty rankings take roughly twice as long to produce as redraft rankings because every player evaluation involves a multi-year time horizon. * Jake weights the current season heavier than most dynasty rankers, arguing that too many managers are optimizing for 2029 instead of actually trying to win. * Age is primarily a tiebreaker in the top tier, but becomes a more significant factor around ages 27–28. * Contract situations are the underrated companion to age in dynasty valuation. * Consulting redraft rankings alongside dynasty rankings can help break close calls, especially when you want to know which of two players has a clearer path to contributing this season. * The hardest players to rank well are often not the stars but the mid-tier options whose range of outcomes is widest and upside matters more than floor. * Jake's closing advice: stop being a lazy manager. Look at other teams' needs, make offers, start conversations. Don't just wait for trades to come to you. ⏱️ Chapters 00:00 – Introduction 04:58 – The Question Rankings Try to Answer 14:08 – Tiers and What Gets Lost 21:13 – Weighting This Year vs. Future Years 27:32 – How Age and Contracts Factor into Rankings 37:38 – How Jake Uses, and Avoids, Outside Rankers 42:36 – When Are Your Rankings Done? 52:56 – Should Dynasty Managers Use Redraft Rankings? 01:04:17 – Stop Being Lazy & #BanKickers 🔗 Links Mentioned * Jake Ciely at The Athletic [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/author/jake-ciely/]  * Jake's Post-Draft Dynasty Rankings [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7212010/2026/04/27/2026-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings-rookie-only/]  * Follow Jake on Twitter/X [https://x.com/allinkid]  * All In Speed Run podcast [https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/all-in-speed-run/id1434703276] on Apple Podcasts  * FantasyPros [https://www.fantasypros.com]  * Jeff's Dynasty Rankings [https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2026&userId=978336]  * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock] * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com] 👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.

Injury Myths Are Costing You Dynasty Value with Adam Hutchison

Dynasty managers misvalue injured players — and most of the time, it's because the conventional wisdom is wrong. Footballguys injury expert Adam Hutchison has tracked more than 2,000 injuries across nine seasons, and the data pushes back on some of the most common assumptions: about ACL recovery, about age and athleticism, about which injuries actually linger and which ones don't. Knowing where the myths break down lets you buy low when others are running scared — and avoid the traps that look like value but aren't. Adam also shares which injured dynasty assets he's buying and selling right now, and closes with a three-question checklist every manager should run before making any move on an injured player. 💡 Key Takeaways * Dynasty managers assume age and athleticism predict ACL recovery. The data says otherwise. Past performance is far more predictive than a player's age or athleticism. * The "injury prone" label is real but haphazardly applied. Adam's Recovery Score metric shows that some players consistently beat their timelines while others (including some big names) consistently miss more time than expected. * The number of days between surgery and returning to the lineup has a meaningful, positive relationship with post-injury fantasy output. Dynasty managers should be wary of players returning too quickly after surgery. * Re-injury risk is higher than most managers realize for certain injury types — MCL sprains for RBs, hamstrings for TEs and WRs — and that risk isn't priced into most dynasty markets. * Not all injuries linger the same way. Lower leg injuries suppress RB production the longest. Core and hip injuries are the most damaging for WRs' performance. Treating all injuries as equal leads to mispriced trades. * Some injuries are almost never worth buying at any price. Achilles tears, knee dislocations, and patellar tendon ruptures are the three Adam won't touch regardless of discount. * Before any injured-player move, run Adam's three-question checklist: know your window, know the injury, know the risk. ⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 – Injuries: An Unfortunate Reality in Football 04:03 – Adam's PT Background Shapes His Injury Analysis 11:43 – Is the 'Injury Prone' Trope Real? 15:12 – Christian McCaffrey, Injury Patterns & Practice Philosophy 21:38 – ACL and Achilles: Is the ‘Recovery Year’ Trope Real? 27:53 – Other Injury Myths the Data Doesn’t Support 31:19 – Re-injury Rates by Position 40:46 – Lingering Effects of Injuries on Production 47:01 – When Should Missing Practice Actually Concern You? 53:10 – Expectations for Alec Pierce, Jonathan Brooks & Tank Dell 59:37 – Adam's Checklist for Buying an Injured Player 🔗 Links Mentioned * Footballguys [https://www.footballguys.com]  * Adam's Articles [https://www.footballguys.com/articles?page=1&userId=966712] on Footballguys  * Follow Adam on Twitter/X [https://x.com/TheRealAdam_H]  * Follow Jeff on Twitter/X [https://x.com/jeffblaylock]  * Coachspeak Index [https://www.thecoachspeakindex.com/] (Greg Brainos)  * Keep Trade Cut [https://keeptradecut.com/] (dynasty valuation site)  👍 Support the Show If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow. Visit dynastycompass.com [https://www.dynastycompass.com] to learn more about the show.