Deal Live, Hormuz Open

Deal Live, Hormuz Open

Monday, June 22, 2026. WEEK 26 OPENS. The deal is done. The Strait of Hormuz is open. Crude is at $75.60-$75.70. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.60-$75.70 (Jun 22), down 2.1-2.2% from prior session. Recent closes: Jun 21 $75.67, Jun 18 $76.60, Jun 17 $76.79, Jun 16 $76.05, Jun 15 $80.75, Jun 12 $84.88, Jun 11 $87.71. Month-to-date down 19%. YTD up 10%. SETUP: Prices snapping lower after earlier volatility. Stronger dollar headwind. Prediction markets trading near $76 with potential upside targets around $80. DEAL IS LIVE: MOU signed remotely ~Jun 17. Trump signed hard copy Jun 17-18 at Versailles. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation period initiated. STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENED: Commercial shipping toll-free 60 days. US naval blockade lifted. Iran established Persian Gulf Strait Administration for vessel clearance, no fees during 60-day period. SHIPPING SURGE: Ship crossings spiked 25 commercial vessels Jun 18 (highest since mid-April). Oil tankers Saudi-flagged super tankers carrying millions of barrels moved through. De-confliction line set up between parties for safe passage. CONCERNS: De-mining waterway ongoing. Regional frictions Lebanon ceasefire issues. Some contradictory reports Iran closure threats. Trump reference possible US tolls if final deal not reached in 60 days. IMPLICATION: Supply flowing. Geopolitical premium gone. Crude at $75 new reality. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: Most recent EIA report (released Jun 18, covers week ending Jun 12): Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. YTY 29 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year average 151 Bcf above average 2,608 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jun 5) +108 Bcf injection to 2,686 Bcf. Build slightly below expectations (consensus ~75-82 Bcf). Inventories within 5-year historical range. Henry Hub trading near $3.15-$3.20/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 (week ending Jun 19). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75 new reality. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Week 26 opens with supply flowing and geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Deal Signing Tomorrow

Thursday, June 18, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.09-$75.53 (Jun 18), down 1.6-2.2% from prior session (previous close ~$76.79). Intraday traded near $76 earlier, extended losses to $74.97-$75.62. Brent crude below $78/barrel. DRIVER: US-Iran peace deal easing supply disruption fears. CONTEXT: Prices erased most conflict-driven gains. Month-to-date declines exceeding 27% in some measures. DEAL SIGNING TOMORROW: Friday, Jun 19, 2026, Switzerland (Geneva/Bürgenstock resort). Facilitated by Swiss authorities, mediators Pakistan & Qatar. DEAL TERMS: 60-day ceasefire extension (including Lebanon). Strait of Hormuz reopening to commercial traffic, toll-free passage 60 days (extendable). US naval blockade lifted. Demining & security measures referenced. Up to $25B frozen assets possible release. Nuclear talks 60-day window on enrichment, stockpiles, sanctions relief. SHIPPING: Some vessels (oil tankers) already crossing post-Jun 15 announcement as goodwill gesture. Shipping firms monitoring for security guarantees, demining completion, post-signing confirmation. IMPLICATION: Fade trade complete. Crude at $75. Geopolitical premium gone. Tomorrow's signing formality. Market already priced in deal. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Thesis intact. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: Most recent EIA report (released Jun 11, covers week ending Jun 5): Total working gas 2,686 Bcf. Weekly net change +108 Bcf injection. Year-over-year 5 Bcf below Jun 2025. 5-year average 151 Bcf (+6%) above average. REGIONAL: East 514 (+34), Midwest 610 (+37), Mountain 222 (+4), Pacific 304 (+6), South Central 1,037 (+28). NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 18 at 10:30 AM ET (week ending Jun 12). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75 target zone. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Tomorrow's deal signing formality. Market already priced in. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Supply Flows Resume

Wednesday, June 17, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures settled ~$75.39 (Jun 16), live quotes Jun 17 showing $76.30-$76.48. Fade trade accelerating. DEAL STATUS: Preliminary MOU reached Jun 14-15. Virtual signing reported. Formal signing ceremony Friday, Jun 19, Geneva. DEAL TERMS: 60-day ceasefire extension. Strait of Hormuz reopening, toll-free period expected. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Nuclear talks deferred to follow-up. IMPLICATION: Crude crashed from $90-$100 highs earlier Jun to $75-$76 now. That's $15-$25 drop in 3 weeks. Geopolitical premium gone. Supply flows resume. Oversupply thesis intact. Target was $70-$75. We're there. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $80. Target $70. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (released Jun 11, covers week ending Jun 5): Total working gas 2,686 Bcf. Weekly net change +108 Bcf injection. Year-over-year 5 Bcf lower than Jun 2025. 5-year average 151 Bcf (+6%) above average 2,535 Bcf. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN: East 514 Bcf (+34, 2.2% above 5-yr avg). Midwest 610 Bcf (+37, 3.9% above 5-yr avg). Mountain 222 Bcf (+4, 29.8% above 5-yr avg). Pacific 304 Bcf (+6, 27.2% above 5-yr avg). South Central 1,037 Bcf (+28, 0.2% above 5-yr avg). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. No weather shock yet. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Next storage report Jun 18 (week ending Jun 12). BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75-$76 target zone. Short any bounces above $80. Target $70. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Technicals: Week 25

Tuesday, June 16, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading $80.58-$81.58 range. Open ~$80.96, High $81.53, Low $80.86. Sharp drop from prior days (Jun 12 high ~$87). SETUP: Crude in free fall. Geopolitical premium gone. Watching technical support levels. KEY SUPPORT: $80.24-$80.55 (Classic/Fibonacci S3/S2 pivots, near-term daily support). $82.67 (key near-term support). $85 (major psychological/support zone, floor in June outlooks). $74-$75 (longer-term Fibonacci-based support, 61.8% retracement, 200-day MA proximity). KEY RESISTANCE: $81.22-$81.53 (Classic/Fibonacci R1/R2 pivots, immediate upside targets). $85.09-$87.30 (near-term resistance cluster, key breakout level). $100 (psychological pivot, major reference level). $106-$108 (multi-month resistance zone from prior highs). READ: Crude testing support at $80.24-$80.55. If holds, expect bounce toward $85. If breaks, next target $74-$75. Momentum bearish. Volume declining. Fade trade. Short any bounces above $82. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading $3.02-$3.15 range. NGN26 contract ~$3.153. TECHNICAL INDICATORS: RSI(14) ~29.9-32.1 (Sell signal, in/approaching oversold below 30-40). MACD(12,26) ~-0.014 to -0.015 (Sell signal, negative histogram, bearish momentum on daily). Moving averages: All 12 periods signaling Sell. Overall: 8-9 Sell signals on daily. PIVOT POINTS: Support S1 ~$3.02, S2 ~$3.016-$3.027, S3 ~$3.008-$3.017. Pivot ~$3.027-$3.045. Resistance R1 ~$3.032-$3.053, R2 ~$3.04-$3.063, R3 ~$3.044-$3.071. READ: Gas oversold on daily. Weekly timeframe shows potential bullish MACD crossover suggesting longer-term momentum improvement despite daily bearishness. Accumulation zone intact. $3.02-$3.05 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—testing support at $80.24-$80.55. Short any bounces above $82. Target $74-$75. Gas—oversold daily, bullish weekly setup. Accumulate $3.02-$3.05. Target $4.00+. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.

Week 25 Opens: Deal Imminent, Crude Crashes

Monday, June 15, 2026. WEEK 25 OPENS. The deal is done or nearly done. Strait of Hormuz about to reopen. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures $80.07-$80.77, down 4.8-5.7% on day. Intraday range $80.00-$82.42. Previous close ~$84.88. Earlier in week: $92-$93 (Jun 11), $86-$87 (Jun 12). CATALYST: Geopolitical risk premium evaporating. US and Iran close to finalizing MOU. Both sides agreed on text. Signing could happen in coming days. DEAL TERMS: Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, no tolls on passage, prewar shipping levels restored within ~30 days. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Some sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell oil freely during initial period. 60-day ceasefire extension framework. Nuclear issues deferred to follow-up negotiations. IMPLICATION: Crude crashing because war premium gone. Supply disruption risk that drove prices to $95 evaporating. Thesis was right—geopolitical spikes fade, mean reversion kicks in. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot (Jun 8) $3.10/MMBtu. July futures ~$3.14/MMBtu. August futures ~$3.18/MMBtu. Storage (week ending Jun 5): 2,686 Bcf, +108 Bcf injection. 5 Bcf below year-ago, 151 Bcf (+6%) above 5-year average. Next storage report: Jun 18. SETUP: Gas holding accumulation range. Storage ample. Injections strong. No weather shock yet. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Crude—fade trade on. Strait reopens, supply flows, prices crash toward $70-$75 range. Short any bounces above $82. Gas—accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Week 25 opens with crude collapsing on deal news. War premium gone. Mean reversion accelerates. Gas decoupled and holding. Accumulation thesis intact. Trade the data, not the headlines.