Ep. 9: Headline Indexes Hold Steady, but the Underlying Data Reveals More

Ep. 9: Headline Indexes Hold Steady, but the Underlying Data Reveals More

The Small Business Optimism Index slipped approximately half a point (0.6 points) in May, its third consecutive monthly decline. The Employment Index remained essentially flat, though that’s not the whole employment picture. Beneath those two quiet Indexes are trends pulling small businesses into uncomfortable areas: price increases — both actual and planned — are back to 2022-2023 levels and employment, with unfilled job openings and hiring plans falling to levels last seen in May 2020. Holly Wade and Peter Hansen discuss whether these are early "stress fractures" or a single monthly decline.   Learn more about the May Small Business Economic Trends report and small business expectations.   Other highlights include:  * Inflation back to 2022-2023 territory (1:51)  * Why the flat Employment Index hides a lot (5:09)  * Labor quality concerns fall to 2016 levels (7:34)  * Unfavorable historical comparisons are back (9:50)  * Capital investment plans at record lows (12:08)  * Supply chain disruptions creeping back (17:57)  * What to watch for in the June data (20:20)

Ep. 8: Small Business Optimism Remains Below Average but Stable

April’s Small Business Economic Trends data shows that optimism has leveled out from March’s sharp decline but remains below the historical average. As businesses continue to adjust to inflated fuel costs, small business owners’ expectations on improving economic conditions fell seven points to their lowest level since October 2024, while earnings trends overall improved for the month. NFIB Research Center Co-hosts, Holly Wade and Peter Hansen, unpack what the trends and research means for small businesses moving forward.    Learn more about the April Small Business Economic Trends report and NFIB’s Small Business Employment Index. [https://www.nfib.com/small-business-trends-research/]  Other highlights include:  * The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index [https://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NFIB-SBET-Report-March-2026.pdf] rose 0.1 points in April to 95.9, below the 52-year average of 98.0 (0:00)  * Optimism Index components show movement, with economic expectations down seven points and earnings on the rise (1:10)  * Why profits have rebounded but outlook is low (2:34)  * Fuel cost effects (5:17)  * What influenced April’s Employment Index decline (8:40).   * Labor as the top problem for small business (9:41)  * Tax season (11:33)  * Inflation as a top concern (12:37)  * Uncertainty Index (15:55)

Ep. 7: Small Business Optimism Falls in March

The March Small Business Economic Trends data is largely reflective of small business owners’ and consumers’ reactions to a dramatic spike in oil prices. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers. NFIB Research Center Co-hosts, Holly Wade and Peter Hansen, calibrate what are considered significant changes in a month like this.   Learn more about the February Small Business Economic Trends report and NFIB’s new Small Business Employment Index. [https://www.nfib.com/small-business-trends-research/]  Other highlights include:  * NFIB’s Energy survey clearly showed energy was a large component of cost related to business operations (4:03)  * The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index [https://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NFIB-SBET-Report-March-2026.pdf] fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0 (6:27)  * The biggest contributors to the decline in the index (9:02)  * A large shift of 4 points in the health of their business (15:42)  * Small business landscape in hiring plans and unfilled job openings (17:10)

Ep. 6: February Data Shows Balanced Labor Market

NFIB’s February Small Business Economic Trends report shows a slight decline of half a point in the Optimism Index, though the Index remains slightly above its historical average (6:12). Podcast co-hosts Holly Wade, NFIB Research Center Executive Director, and Peter Hansen, Director of Research and Policy Analysis, analyze gains in NFIB’s Small Business Employment Index, which shows a balanced labor market through the start of 2026 (9:30)  Learn more about the February Small Business Economic Trends report and NFIB’s new Small Business Employment Index. [https://www.nfib.com/small-business-trends-research/]  Other highlights include:  * Discussion of the NABE Policy Conference, where small business owners spoke about the tangible impacts of regulations on their business (0:05)  * Price metrics (13:30)  * Concern about poor sales as the single most important problem (19:40)  * Signs health care is challenging small businesses right now (22:59)

Ep. 5: January Small Business Data and New Employment Index

NFIB’s January Small Business Economic Trends report reveals a steady start to 2026 with a modestly positive outlook for small businesses. Podcast co-hosts Holly Wade, NFIB Research Center Executive Director, and Peter Hansen, Director of Research and Policy Analysis, discuss the highlights, changes, and optimism for small businesses as they navigate the new year. They also cover NFIB’snew Small Business Employment Index, which uses data collected over the past 40 years to measure the pulse of the small business jobs market. Current story: A balanced labor market.  Learn more about the January Small Business Economic Trends report and the new NFIB Small Business Employment Index. [https://www.nfib.com/small-business-trends-research/]