The Road to Respair
Nick sits down with Doug Baker, Chief Strategy Officer at Shift Active Media, to work out whether gravel, bikepacking and ultra-distance riding are genuinely growing — or whether it just looks that way from inside the algorithms. Doug works with bike, run and outdoor brands to help them understand real riders at scale, largely via Shift's own recruited panel, the Rider Research Hub. In this conversation he and Nick get into: * Why the cycling industry's post-COVID "slump" is a sales story, not a participation one * What the actual search and panel data says about gravel's growth (steady, not explosive) * Why most gravel riders still treat it as a secondary discipline to road * Bikepacking's high interest / low equipment-spend gap, and what's really going on with borrowed bags * Why ultra-distance riding is small, and why that's exactly why it produces the best stories * Whether gravel bikes will ever "get it right" — and why the answer is probably no, on purpose * Where women's participation is genuinely growing, and where the data is murkier than the anecdotes suggest * Why getting into a niche sport happens faster now than it did a decade ago, and it's got nothing to do with cycling specifically A conversation for anyone who's ever wondered if their feed is showing them the sport, or just showing them themselves.
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