E94 | Evaluating California Elections - Fraud, or no?

E94 | Evaluating California Elections - Fraud, or no?

We're back! Joe is back from his trip to Japan and has nothing to say about it. We decry all the great topics we had to miss over the month before we dig to the root of today's topic, the California Election System. Spurred by what happened to Pratt during the LA Mayoral primaries, plus the discussion on the All-In Podcast (David Friedberg and David Sachs), Luke spent way too much of his time trying to form his own opinion on the integrity of the California electoral system. He does this by steelman-ing arguments from those who would defend the system, and then testing each one. The main arguements (Luke calls them "pillars") for why the California election system is sound are (a) fraud has never won an election, (b) there is no evidence of scale, (c) there are effective controls in place, and (d) there have been audits, lawsuits, and observation laws, but nothing found. Some are better than others, sure. At the end, Luke gives his newly-formed, and still maluable, opinion... Enjoy! Timestamps: 00:00 - All the Stuff we couldn't cover 01:56 - LA Primary Results and All-In Podcast Response 05:03 - Summarizing David Friedberg's Argument ("There is no election") 07:45 - Why do mail-in-votes favor Dems so heavily? (We really don't know) 08:47 - Luke's Snarky Friend's Response to Friedberg 09:55 - Summarizing David Sachs Argument ("There is Fraud") 10:59 - Luke's Snarky Friend's Response to Sachs & She is right! 14:27 - The 4 Pillars against Sachs and Friedberg 16:20 - Testing Pillar 1) Fraud never won an election 19:55 - Testing Pillar 2) No evidence of scale 24:26 - Testing Pillar 3) Effective controls are in place 30:17 - Testing Pillar 4) Audits, Lawsuits, Observation Laws 35:51 - How to measure the extent of the fraud, but no one will look 36:01 - Voter Rolls, A Legal Ballot Harvest Scheme About the show: Two finance professionals dig to the root of recent news topics. Details + Primary Sources = Basis for an Opinion. Technical, Curious, Primary Sources, Independent. Luke and Joe are two finance professionals who understand that, in order to combat manipulation and form an informed, individual position, details and primary sources are key. As such, we focus on digging to the root of whatever financial scandal, debate, or news that happened in the past week, reviewing the source material with you, and then forming our own opinion. We do not claim to know everything, only that we are honest in our search for understanding. We try to have fun with it as well and don't take ourselves too seriously. We heartily invite you for the ride.

E89 | China Subjugates its Financial System; Treasury Considers Repo Investments; Star Wars Speech

This week we focus on a deep dive into a new (proposed) Financial Law in China that gives the CCP expansive, total control over Financial Institutions. It's shocking! We compare the US and Chinese process for passing these kinds of laws, show why this might be form over function. We cover specific Articles that grant the regulators expansive powers: things their US counterparts absolutely do not have. The proposed Law is just that, proposed. The lawmakers are asking for comments on this law, so Luke provides a few. Next, we review a new idea explored by Treasury to earn some additional income by lending its excess cash into the Repo market. This might be another example of Fiscal and Monetary Policy combining together. Finally, we conclude looking at all the Star Wars references in a John Williams speech. Enjoy! Time Stamps Topic 1) China's New Financial Order 00:00 - Darth Joe & a New Financial Order! 01:41 - China's New Financial Constitution 02:15 - US v China Public Comment Process. Form > Function? 06:03 - Article 3) Umbrella Clause (All Finance Stuff) 06:56 - Article 4) Finance Serves the CCP 07:49 - Article 12) A Digital RMB (to Dethrone the $?) & Circulation 09:26 - Article 13) Coordinating Monetary & Fiscal Policy 11:45 - Article 19) The Party embeds itself in FIs! 16:06 - Article 55) Powers of the Regulators (US v China) 18:46 - Article 56) Powers if the FI Violates a Regulation (Uh oh!) 24:17 - Article 67) Powers of Resolution 26:24 - Article 85) Powers to Ignore US Sanctions 27:23 - Article 93) Foreign Co's are Governed by this Law 28:47 - Xi's Playbook & Informing the US Administration 29:58 - Luke's Feedback, for Consideration 31:10 - How Xi is Different: Charisma or Disappear People? Topic 2 33:26 - The Treasury Considers Entering the Repo Market Topic 3 37:47 - John Williams' Star Wars Speech Sources: Our AMAZING Notes (with more sources): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UGRmigUjtkq5B41T8aBi7hqq9xcKXT1mzJIP7QkUsRo/edit?usp=sharing [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UGRmigUjtkq5B41T8aBi7hqq9xcKXT1mzJIP7QkUsRo/edit?usp=sharing] Death Star Canteen Skit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxX7QCll3oc [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxX7QCll3oc] About the show: Two Finance professionals talk finance news. Technical, Curious, Primary Sources, Independent. Our podcast is intended for curious, smart individuals who do not work in finance, but would like to know WTF do professionals in the space talk about (financial, economic, monetary & fiscal policy, and some miscellaneous topics as well). DISCLAIMER 1: Views presented in this podcast are those of the hosts only; they do not necessarily represent the views of current or former employers. DISCLAIMER 2: The content presented here is for informational (and hopefully, entertainment) purposes only. The content should not be considered financial advice. DISCLAIMER 3: We are not lawyers. Do not interpret any of what we say here as legal advice. If you have a legal problem, consult a professional lawyer for goodness sake.

E81 | Private Credit, Debanking, Oil Prediction, A New American Bank, Bringing Mortgages Home

Joe and Luke discuss the last few weeks of financial news as perceived by finance professionals. We got an update to the Donald Trump JP Morgan Debanking case. The JP Morgan defense issued a responses and (SCANDAL!) "admitted" to debanking Trump! Really, all they did was confirm what no one denied: they closed Trump and Trump-adjacent accounts. Luke presents his thoughts on the uphill battle before Trump. Luke made a prediction on Oil prices the morning of March 1, after the Iran strikes. He was dead wrong. We review our mistakes and learn from them. On the Korean Stock Market fallout, Luke educated himself on the dynamics of that index to help understand the Black day. He made a cartoon for that as well. Jobs report came in negative, but the Market didn't do a total sell-off. Joe explains why. Palmer Luckey opened his own bank aligned with America's interest! Super safe! Pandering to the hole left by the Silicone Valley Bank Disaster. Oh, no wait, it's just a super profitable Stablecoin bank. That's what we think that is all about. Private credit is in the news a lot. People are focusing on redemption caps, but the story is with the credit quality which, as of this writing, is starting to show cracks. People are starting to cover that as this episode goes to press. Miki Bowman, Vice Chair of Supervision at the Federal Reserve, has made it her mission to bring mortgages back onto the balance sheet at banks. Luke dives into what, exactly that means and why they left in the first place. WARNING: this one gets a little technical. 00:00 - Wifey Update 02:00 - Trump Debanking Update 04:41 - Luke's WRONG Oil Price Prediction 09:11 - Korean Stock Market Fallout & Concentration 11:30 - Jobs Report & Nuances 14:32 - New (De Novo) Bank! Erebor Bank 25:59 - Shadow Banks & Private Credit Liquidity Problems, Maybe Credit Problems 35:37 - Mortgages Move to Non-Bank Lenders, Miki work Brings them Home (to Banks) 43:55 - Sign off & Looking for Another Podcast Show Notes & Sources: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h-z9c3tI8Zz4OXTLxOm0OIJHE_phuPyftgpY9RHZSTA/edit?usp=sharing [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h-z9c3tI8Zz4OXTLxOm0OIJHE_phuPyftgpY9RHZSTA/edit?usp=sharing] About the show: Two Finance professionals talk finance news. Technical, Curious, Primary Sources, and Independent. Our podcast is intended for curious, smart individuals who do not work in finance, but would like to know WTF do professionals in the space talk about (financial, economic, monetary & fiscal policy, and some miscellaneous topics as well). Luke and Joe are two finance professionals who understand that, in order to combat manipulation and form an informed, individual position, details and primary sources are key. As such, we focus on digging to the root of whatever financial scandal, debate, or news that happened in the past week, reviewing the source material with you, and then forming our own opinion. We do not claim to know everything, only that we are honest in our search for understanding. We try to have fun with it as well and don't take ourselves too seriously. We heartily invite you for the ride. DISCLAIMER 1: Views presented in this podcast are those of the hosts only; they do not necessarily represent the views of current or former employers. DISCLAIMER 2: The content presented here is for informational (and hopefully, entertainment) purposes only. The content should not be considered financial advice. DISCLAIMER 3: We are not lawyers. Do not interpret any of what we say here as legal advice. If you have a legal problem, consult a professional lawyer for goodness sake.

E79 | The collapse of a bank that wasn't a bank; Scotty B's Prediction; Iranian Sanctions Story

Luke and Joe continue to advance against their ignorance in this episode. First, Luke provides six topics which he did not have time to research so that you can research them if interested. The main topic was Scott Bessent's response to a question about Iran posed at a recent Congressional hearing (early Feb, 2026). He mentioned bank, economic, and currency collapses. Sounds interesting! But what is he talking about. The bank collapse was a wild ride--nothing seemed to make sense to our Western ears. These are crazy numbers and a crazy story; so much so, that Luke questioned if this was even a "bank" in the way we use the term. On the Rial, the (unofficial) currency has depreciated to nearly completely worthless. But official rates held constant through January 7, when it broke. What happened there? On the economy, this is an old story of sanctions. Luke breaks down the story of sanctions in a single graph; from the Obama years to Trump's first (and now second) "maximum pressure" campaign, that seemed to have worked. Sorta. Time Stamps 00:00 - On this episode... Honorable Mentions this week: 01:55 - FRB Article on Future Risk 05:06 - Bessent, the IMF, & Article IV 05:25 - OpenAI Accuses DeepSeek 05:57 - Ray Dalio & Stage 5 to 6 06:28 - Kennedy & Healthcare Prices 06:55 - Public Healthcare Data and DataRepublican Main Topic: 08:22 - Scotty B Clip 1 - Questioned on Iran 09:50 - The Bank Collapse Makes no Sense 17:11 - Why News Reports Seem off 22:45 - 40% loss is INSANE 26:30 - Scotty B Clip 2 - Get out of the Rial NOW 28:00 - The Collapse of the Iranian Rian 33:31 - Scotty B Clip 3 - Sanctions 34:06 - The Story of Iranian Sanctions (in one graph) Notes & Sources: https://docs.google.com/document/d/10rHDbn08ll8gxUBHKeoghihAM9aKmC8TSZW257kg1lM/edit?usp=sharing [https://docs.google.com/document/d/10rHDbn08ll8gxUBHKeoghihAM9aKmC8TSZW257kg1lM/edit?usp=sharing] Stay Curious Stay Humble Keep your Own Council Find us: Substack - https://rootallevilpod.substack.com/?r=7hs5iz&utm_campaign=pub-share-checklist [https://rootallevilpod.substack.com/?r=7hs5iz&utm_campaign=pub-share-checklist] X - https://x.com/Root_All_Evil [https://x.com/Root_All_Evil] Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/6B6vqZECgl9qOoHpggHJcx?si=5467b81a14b94650 [https://open.spotify.com/show/6B6vqZECgl9qOoHpggHJcx?si=5467b81a14b94650] Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-root-of-all-evil/id1875718682 [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-root-of-all-evil/id1875718682] YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCggLetvhRy0MHd-2H9ZGtlw [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCggLetvhRy0MHd-2H9ZGtlw] Music: With Plenty Of Money And You (Remastered) - Tony Bennett, The Count Basie Orchestra DISCLAIMER 1: Views presented in this podcast are those of the hosts only; they do not necessarily represent the views of current or former employers. DISCLAIMER 2: The content presented here is for informational (and hopefully, entertainment) purposes only. The content should not be considered financial advice. DISCLAIMER 3: We are not lawyers. Do not interpret any of what we say here as legal advice. If you have a legal problem, consult a professional lawyer for goodness sake.

E76 | Kevin Warsh, Potential Regime Shfit at the Fed, and Dollar Credibility

We break down the surprise nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Are we witnessing a shift in tone at the Fed — or something more structural? Separately, we discuss two other developing stories: • Renewed government shutdown brinkmanship in Washington • Rumors of potential yen intervention and questions around the strong dollar policy While a short shutdown may have limited operational impact, repeated brinkmanship may call institutional credibility into question. At the same time, reports that the BoJ may be preparing to intervene in FX markets may serve to amplify this result. Local signs of stress in the monetary system? Or isolated headlines?