Anthropic's $44B Revenue Run Rate, SpaceX's $75B IPO Problem, and the Retail VC Trap | Ep 34

SpaceX Surges, Anthropic Stumbles, and Bezos Bets $12B

SpaceX just finished its first week as a public company. Anthropic just had its newest model frozen by the US government. And Jeff Bezos just raised $12B for a startup that's been alive for about a year. Dave and Aman break it all down — from SpaceX IPO mechanics and gamma squeeze risk, to the Dario vs. Washington standoff that could derail the Anthropic IPO, to Bezos's $41B physical AI bet, a massive Salesforce acquisition of a 500 Startups alum, and why Mistral and Cohere just became the Dr. Pepper of AI. Plus: the Valuation Corner returns with Powerlaw (PWRL) — the new retail-accessible VC fund from Ben Black and Mike Dinsdale backed by Acadian. Dave and Aman break down the portfolio, the price-to-NAV, and whether it's worth the ride. 00:48 - [ tech news and vc ] 02:58 - oil down, defense up 🚀 10:31 - SpaceX week one on the tape 📈 15:15 - Anthropic gets frozen 🧊 30:30 - SaaS enters valuation winter ❄️ 33:42 - Bezos bets $12B on an AI engineer 🤖 36:30 - Mistral doubles to $23B 💸 42:15 - Saronic unmanned ship saves lives 🛟 43:20 - [ val corner: PWRL Ben Black ] how Power Law gives retail a chance 🙏 46:06 - portfolio breakdown 💼 47:15 - strategy pros and cons 👍👎 49:29 - manager accolades 💐 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #spacex #anthropic #mistralai #secondaries #venturecapital

The SpaceX IPO Report Card, OpenAI vs. Anthropic, and the Private Market No One Talks About | CJ Gustafson w/ Guest CJ Gustafson

The SpaceX IPO just happened. Dave and Aman break down the grades, the winners, and what comes next — then sit down with CJ Gustafson, recovering tech CFO and founder of Mostly Metrics, to dig into the private market pricing mechanics that most investors get completely wrong. This week: SpaceX Day 1 results and the $75B raise that dwarfed an entire year of VC-backed IPOs. The updated Private Mag Seven — who stays, who goes public, and who replaces them. OpenAI vs. Anthropic: which IPO is actually stronger and at what price. Google raising $80B in equity (not debt) with Berkshire Hathaway coming in. Cognition at $26B and the AI coding land grab. —— 00:36 - [ tech news and vc ] 01:52 - Big 3 Race to Go Public 🏁 04:15 - Google $85B Equity Raise 💰 22:48 - SaaSpocalypse Over? 🫨 29:46 - AI-coding Cognition Raises $1B 💸 32:32 - Databricks Past $134B & Revolut Past $100B 🚀 40:01 - [ intvw: CJ Gustafson, recovering tech CFO ] 44:32 - Raising $1B in 18 Months 💸 46:16 - SaaS Multiples: From 20x to 4x and the Road Back 📉 1:17:00 - Stay Private, Get to $1B ARR Before You IPO 🏰 1:20:26 - [ val corner: Aman grades SpaceX IPO ] 1:25:12 – What happens to stock price next 6 months 🤔 1:29:45 – Who made the most money 🤑 —— [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ cj gustafson = https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ | https://x.com/cjgustafson ] [ run the numbers podcast https://www.youtube.com/@RuntheNumberswithCJ ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Trading Places is the only VC secondary podcast on the internet. Hosted by Dave McClure and Aman Verjee of Practical Venture Capital. Subscribe for weekly coverage of private markets, AI company valuations, and the deals most investors never see coming. #spacex #spacexipo #spacexstock #secondaries #venturecapital

I Read the 308-Page SpaceX S-1 So You Don’t Have To

Aman read all 308 pages of the SpaceX S-1 so you don't have to. This week we break down every major number, surprise, and buried Easter egg in the filing — plus the biggest IPO week in recent memory across the AI holy trinity. SpaceX is pricing around June 12 and could open at a $2T+ valuation. We walk through all three business segments (Connectivity, Space, AI), the $28.5 trillion TAM claim, Elon's compensation plan that pays out $583B if he colonizes Mars, the unusual staggered lock-up structure, and the two breadcrumbs in the S-1 that suggest a SpaceX-Tesla merger could be coming. We also cover Anthropic's monster quarter ($10.9B in Q2 revenue, profitable, raising at $900B), OpenAI rushing to beat them to IPO after winning the Musk lawsuit, NVIDIA's $81B print growing 85% YoY, Mercury's $200M Series D at $5.2B, the US government taking equity stakes in quantum companies, and Nasdaq Private Markets suing Hiive over secondary market plumbing. A lot happened this week. 00:43 - [ tech news and vc ] 08:04 - Anthropic profitable, $900B looks cheap 🤯 13:38 - OpenAI rushes to IPO after courtroom win 🏃‍♂️‍➡️ 17:53 - NVIDIA $82B print $80B buyback 💰🫲 22:20 - Mercury $200M Series D @ $5.2B 🏦 25:35 - US Govt = Quantum VC ⚛️ 29:05 - NPM sues Hiive over 2ndry plumbing 🪠 30:58 - [ val corner: 308 page SpaceX S-1 ] 31:06 - SpaceX S-1 highlights 📸🔦 35:56 - $28T TAM includes Martians 🌎🌍🌏🌖✨ 37:00 - 3 core biz units: Connectivity, Space, AI 3️⃣ 47:05 - SpaceX-Tesla merger? 🤔 50:10 - board members revealed 👤 53:48 - unusual staggered lock-up period 🔐 1:01:00 - Dave sings a whole new Mars 🎶 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #spacexs1 #spacexipo #spacex #secondaries #venturecapital

$900B Anthropic, SpaceX IPO Date, and the SPV Wild West w/ Clara Vydyanath | Trading Places Pod EP35

IPO season is here — and private markets are breaking at the seams. This week on Trading Places: Cerebras just had one of the best IPOs in years, pricing way above range and popping 68% on day one. SpaceX is targeting June 12th for its Nasdaq listing — and the prospectus drops next week. Anthropic raised $30B at a $900B valuation (up from ~$350B just three months ago) — and then told SPV operators to back off. And Anduril closed a $5B round at $61B, doubling its valuation in under a year. Then Dave and Aman sit down with Clara Vydyanath, a secondaries veteran who's spent eight years at Forge and Hiive, to break down what's actually happening in the SPV market — who's legit, who's a scammer, and what CFOs should be doing right now. Plus: retail VC part two, where Aman pits AngelList's USVC (Naval Ravikant + Ankur Nagpal) against Cathie Wood's Ark Ventures. One of them has a track record problem. Timestamps: cold open [ tech news and vc ] 00:53 - Warsh confirmed as new Fed chair 🪑 03:32 - Hormuz "you shall not pass" 🚢🧙‍♂️ 07:05 - Cerebras blockbuster IPO 📈 12:28 - SpaceX IPO date around June 12 🚀 15:56 - Anthropic raises $30B @ $900B valuation 💰 28:30 - Anduril closes $5B @ $61B 🛫 30:07 - [ intvw: Clara Vydyanath, 2ndry advisor ] What she learned at Hiive & Forge 🧠 33:52 - SPVs and Anthropic ✋ 39:43 - What will happen after IPO summer 🔮 44:20 - Wild West of 2ndries is only beginning 🤠 46:00 - CFOs tender offer playbook 📕 58:50 - [ val corner: retail VC part 2 ] Closed end funds: AngelList & Ark Invest 📝 1:00:33 - AngelList USVC portfolio breakdown 😇 1:02:35 - ARKK Ventures Ark Invest portfolio breakdown 🌈 1:05:10 - Portfolio strategy and fees faceoff 🥊 1:06:00 - Ankur Nagpal vs Cathie Wood 🤺 1:10:10 - second takes 😂 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ clara vydyanath = https://www.linkedin.com/in/clara-vydyanath-cfa-cpa-14287316/ | https://x.com/ClaraVydyanath ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #tradingplacespodcast #SpaceX #ClaraVydyanath #davemcclure #SpaceXIPO

Anthropic's $44B Revenue Run Rate, SpaceX's $75B IPO Problem, and the Retail VC Trap | Ep 34

Anthropic is now reportedly running at a $44B ARR pace, secondary markets are valuing it north of $1T, and demand is turning into full-scale FOMO. This week on Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down: 00:00 — cold open 00:39 — [ tech and vc news ] 01:53 — Markets ATH during Iran war 💥 06:45 — SpaceX + Anthropic $4B deal 🤝 10:51 — New NASDAQ rules benefit SpaceX 🔔 15:21 — Anthropic raising $50B @ $900B, ARR accelerating 📈 18:20 — Sam and Elon courtroom drama 🍿 23:21 — Cerebras IPO 20x oversubscribed 🥊 25:14 — SaaS-pocalypse continues ⛈️📉 27:47 — [ valuation corner: retail VC part 1 ] Non-accredited investors want private stock 🙏 29:11 — Robinhood Ventures w/ Sarah Pinto & Vlad Tenev 1️⃣ 30:15 — Fundrise w/ Ben Miller 2️⃣ 33:00 — D/XYZ w/ Soheil Prasad 3️⃣ 36:39 — Which would Dave pick? 🤔 41:35 — [ VC secondary 101 w/ dave mcclure ] What is secondary? 🌈 43:03 — Size of the market 📈 44:53 — Why people buy/sell 🤷‍♂️ 47:41 — What are Secret Stallions 🐴 48:45 — Three deal strategies 🧠 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #tradingplacespodcast #secondary101 #vcsecondary #davemcclure #anthropicstock