Rate hikes and budget cuts. More pain, less gain.

Rate hikes and budget cuts. More pain, less gain.

A big week of information to reflect on. The OCR and the Budget 2026 both out last week. Neither extremely surprising, but both giving us (and markets) plenty to digest. We dive into the forecasting scenarios of the RBNZ and Treasury. One side is too pessimistic, the other too optimistic. We feel like Goldilocks trying to find the one that’s just right. Uncertainty is still the word of the day – probably the year. An oil crisis that just doesn’t want to end, coming in an election year, and unpredictable weather events to top it all off. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s very NEET! High hurdles for tertiary education

Special guest alert! Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, PhD candidate at AUT and researcher at the NZ Policy Research Institute, joins us to talk about the tertiary sector. Education uptake and economic conditions are counter-cyclical. When the economy is down, enrolment in education goes up, and vice versa. In the middle of an oil crisis and off the back of two years of recession, enrolment should be surging. The fees-free policy, making first year university free, fell short. The policy didn’t address the immediate barriers to education, most of all: the higher cost of living. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The name is Bond, US Bond. The canary in the coal mine.

We’ve got a very special guest joining us in this episode. We talk about the financial market mayhem, currencies, and what it all means for Kiwi customers and the economy. Tim Olphert is the head of our financial markets team and has been with Kiwibank for a year. Tim has 25 years of experience in executive leadership in banking and finance.There’s a lot of pain in the economy right now. And interest rate hikes are not what we need given the pressure businesses are facing. Our view is unchanged, and we’ve added a new voice to the chorus. There’s a new Bond story in town. US 10-year bonds going higher are the canary in the coal mine for what’s coming for the US equity market and to the global economy. If the S&P500 takes a turn, Trump may finally chicken out… Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The underbelly: underutilised Kiwis are underpaid and underemployed

How long will the war in the Middle East go on for? Oil price is one thing, supply is what we’re really worried about. But worryingly, the menu has changed. No more TACO, now we have NACHO. Not a chance Hormuz opens. We talk about the labour market data report card. It’s not good. Underutilisation is still high, 13%, but that slack in the labour market puts downward pressure on wages, and therefore inflation. Our view is that there’s sufficient disinflationary pressure in the economy such that the RBNZ has no reason to hike rates any time soon. We’ve been beating this drum for a while, and we stand by it. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Desensitised

The conflict in the Middle East is keeping us in limbo. We’re waiting for things to change. The fuel shortage we were bracing for seems less likely now. But we still have to face the prices. We have a wholesale rates market pricing in three rate hikes by October. More hawkish than the most hawkish economists – but calls for rate hikes risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. While we wait, we look at the markets and shake our heads – desensitised feels like an apt description. US equity markets are still taking off. It's like the war isn't even happening. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Sabrina Delgado, and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here [https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/]. Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.