Bitcoin Models Are Wrong… Here’s the Better Way

Bitcoin Models Are Wrong… Here’s the Better Way

In this episode, Matthew sits down with Plan C for a deep dive into the evolution of Bitcoin power law modeling and why many commonly used assumptions may be flawed. The conversation centers on a critical distinction between calendar time vs protocol time, showing how Bitcoin’s early block production delays still distort traditional models today. The discussion expands into quantile regression vs OLS, where Plan C explains why Bitcoin’s skewed data makes median-based modeling more reliable than averages. He also introduces a newer concept around data weighting, suggesting that current models may overemphasize recent price action due to density bias, leading to unstable projections. One of the most impactful takeaways is how small modeling changes can lead to massive differences over time. Plan C demonstrates that long-term fair value projections could differ by as much as 50% depending on the methodology used, challenging widely accepted Bitcoin price expectations. Overall, this conversation reframes how serious analysts should approach Bitcoin’s long-term valuation. Follow Plan C on X: @TheRealPlanC Crypto Voices: Episode 198 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Refining Bitcoin Power Law Models 00:03:42 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time in Bitcoin 00:06:18 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time Regression 00:10:45 - Comparing Bitcoin Start Dates and Projections 00:12:56 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis 00:25:44 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis 00:35:15 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis 00:38:55 - Quantile Regression Superior to OLS for Bitcoin 00:42:04 - Measuring Self-Similarity: Weighting and Time Scales 00:44:15 - Log-Time Weighting for Stable Power Law Regression 00:48:48 - Bitcoin's Scale Invariant Power Law Properties 00:52:34 - Comparing Regression Methods and Stability 00:56:18 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Differences 00:58:14 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Impact 01:00:44 - Decay Functions and Bitcoin Supply Modeling 01:04:19 - Building a Mathematical Model for Price Distribution 01:09:08 - Decay Functions vs Linear Quantile Regression Hosts: Matthew Mezinskis, Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Podcast & videos Bitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & liberty Thanks for watching!

Giovanni Santostasi - Bitcoin Cycles and Power Law

In this episode, Matthew sits down with Giovanni Santostasi to explore one of the most rigorous frameworks for understanding Bitcoin: the power law and log-periodic behavior of price cycles. The conversation begins with the launch of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, aimed at bringing academic rigor to Bitcoin research across physics, economics, and data science. Giovanni then explains his “eigenmode” approach, showing how nearly 97% of Bitcoin’s price behavior can be explained by a power law trend, with the remaining movement driven by oscillatory cycles. The discussion dives deeper into whether Bitcoin truly follows a four-year cycle, or if that pattern is simply a byproduct of more complex log-periodic oscillations that stretch over time. Giovanni argues that what appears to be repeating four-year cycles may actually be elongating cycles, with a major peak potentially forming around late 2027. He also breaks down his accurate call for a late-2024/early-2025 downturn, driven by models suggesting Bitcoin would remain close to its power law rather than overshoot dramatically. The episode concludes with a broader macro lens, comparing Bitcoin’s decelerating growth rate to the exponential growth of traditional finance, raising the possibility of a future “phase transition” where Bitcoin reshapes the global monetary system.Follow Giovanni on X: @Giovann35084111 Visit BitPoseidon Official Site of the Bitcoin Power Law: https://bitposeidon.com/ Crypto Voices: Episode 197Hosts: Matthew Mezinskis, Michel, Alec HarrisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comAlec Harris's havenX: https://thehavenx.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!

Omid Malekan - IRAN, WAR & BITCOIN

In this episode, Matthew and Alec are joined by Omid Malekan to speak about rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and how global instability may accelerate Bitcoin and crypto adoption. The discussion explores internal unrest in Iran, including protests driven by hyperinflation, economic collapse, and regime instability, alongside the uncertainty surrounding potential geopolitical escalation. The conversation then shifts to whether Bitcoin mining in Iran played a role in sanctions evasion, with analysis showing no meaningful drop in global hash rate, suggesting limited reliance on Iranian mining. Matthew and Omid also discuss how a fragmenting global order may require a neutral, permissionless financial system independent of U.S. or China-centric monetary control. They contrast Bitcoin with gold, noting how gold is difficult to transport or deploy during crises, while Bitcoin can move instantly using private keys. The episode also examines stablecoin usage in Iran, including reports of adoption among younger populations and potential use in cross-border payments during internet restrictions. Omid highlights how crypto adoption often spreads gradually, comparing it to early mobile technology adoption before smartphones reached mainstream use. The conversation frames Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge and settlement network in a multipolar world. The episode concludes with the argument that geopolitical instability may serve as a long-term catalyst for crypto adoption.Follow Omid on X: @malekanomsCrypto Voices: Episode 196Contents:00:00:00 - Intro00:00:25 - Iran's Political Crisis and Regime Collapse00:07:40 - Iran's Crisis: Economic Collapse and Uncertain Future00:14:46 - Iran's Attack Reshapes Middle East Alliances00:19:27 - Military Strikes Without a Post-War Plan00:25:05 - Iran's Revolutionary Regime Goes All In00:30:19 - Bitcoin's Advantage Over Gold in Conflict00:32:47 - Gold Hoards and Bitcoin's Timing Problem00:37:51 - Stable Coins and Censorship Resistance00:44:50 - Crypto's Real Promise: Censorship Resistance Over Regulation00:51:57 - Lessons from DAO Hack: Neutrality and Risk00:55:49 - Prediction Markets and Price Discovery Challenges01:04:50 - Drones, Memes, and Modern Warfare Realignment01:09:19 - Phone Addiction and Digital Distraction RealityHosts: Matthew Mezinskis, & Alec HarrisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Alec Harris's havenX: https://thehavenx.com/Show Sponsors: Debifi - https://debifi.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comPodcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!

Jake Langenkamp - Sovereign Bitcoin, Tether, and the Mining Shift

Bitcoin mining, state adoption, stablecoins, and geopolitical competition take center stage in this wide-ranging discussion with Jake Langenkamp. Jake Langenkamp is the founder and CEO of Bridger, a Bitcoin mining company working to partner with international utilities to monetize wasted energy. Prior to Bridger, Jake spent about two decades in the U.S. military and working for the Department of Defense. Over the course of his career, he's worked in North America, Europe, Central Asia and Africa. Jake argues we are in an “awkward middle phase” between retail-driven cycles and sovereign accumulation. Countries are experimenting with strategic Bitcoin reserves, tax policy changes, and mining initiatives, with Brazil’s recent proposal serving as a case study. The conversation dives deep into stablecoins as instruments of US monetary strategy, Tether’s expanding global role, and the implications of frozen addresses and compliance pressure. On mining, Jake explains why frontier markets, especially parts of Africa, present powerful opportunities. Bitcoin mining monetizes stranded energy, accelerates electrification, and may become a sovereign strategy as states recognize Bitcoin’s macro importance. The episode closes with broader geopolitical tensions, sanctions dynamics, and the growing intersection between Bitcoin, statecraft, and global monetary competition.Follow Jake on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-langenkamp/ Follow Jake on X: https://x.com/JakeLangenkampLearn more about Bridger: https://www.bridgerbc.com/ Crypto Voices: Episode 194Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comHost: Matthew Mezinskis & Alec HarrisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!#bitcoin #money #economics

Stephen Perrenod - Money or Debt?

This episode of Crypto Voices features Stephen Perrenod, a veteran technologist, author, and public speaker with decades of experience at the intersection of advanced computing, science, and enterprise strategy. With a background spanning cloud computing, high-performance computing, AI, and data-intensive systems, Stephen brings a rare mix of technical depth and market insight shaped by leadership roles at companies like Cray, SGI, and Sun Microsystems, as well as advisory work with Fortune 500 firms and emerging startups at OrionX. Holding degrees from MIT and Harvard, his perspective grounds today’s crypto and AI narratives in long-cycle technological evolution rather than short-term hype.Follow Stephen on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephenperrenod/ Crypto Voices: Episode 193Show Sponsor: Debifi - https://debifi.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comHost: Matthew MezinskisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!#bitcoin #money #economics