The AI Paradox: More Information, Less Shared Reality

The AI Paradox: More Information, Less Shared Reality

Today's guest is Lyn Alden, one of the world's leading macroeconomic analysts and the author of Broken Money and The Stillguard Incident.We explore one of the defining questions of the modern era: humanity has more information, more connectivity, and more problem-solving capability than ever before, yet trust in institutions is falling and agreement on basic facts appears increasingly difficult.Topics include:• AI generated content and the future of truth• Social media algorithms and attention economics• Bitcoin, cryptographic verification, and digital authenticity• The historical relationship between technology and progress• Energy, hydrocarbons, and human prosperity• Fiscal dominance, inflation, and rising asset prices• Demographics, debt, and the long term economic outlook• Portfolio construction in an era of persistent deficits• Lyn's new investment venture, Orange JuiceIf you enjoy thoughtful conversations about economics, technology, investing, Bitcoin, and long-term human progress, please subscribe.Subscribe to my Substack for more in depth analyses of these topics: Thank you very much to our sponsors: Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/ [https://foundation.xyz/] River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7G [https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbVg0SmtPQ3VXX25GTWt5OW81cVZvOFViNEtod3xBQ3Jtc0tteUdsamoyWHdaZk0wQ2FPSUlrcFZHbVk1OE1sa0RPVXF5WW16TFZJbzlkSnEwODAzd0huYUoyYWpSOFgtY09KMW5va3dyUHJ0UEJhOWdleUdqbVlZdVN1Zm9BdzMtTG83cEx2aHZSMGRHOG1JaGJoUQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Friver.com%2Fsignup%3Fr%3DT7GGAF7G&v=BSzFhnTAGos]Timestamps:00:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos] Introduction: The Shared Reality Problem- HIghlights01:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=80s] How Technology Changed Shared Reality02:40 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=160s] AI, Deepfakes, and the Verification Crisis04:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=260s] Will We Retreat to Local Sources of Truth?05:40 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=340s] Social Media Algorithms and Attention Economics09:10 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=550s] Sponsor Break09:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=590s] Can Bitcoin Help Verify Reality?14:40 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=880s] Hunter Gatherers, Agriculture, and Human Progress19:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=1140s] Markets, Entrepreneurship, and Problem Solving21:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=1280s] Debt, Governments, and Fiscal Dominance24:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=1440s] Why Stocks Keep Rising Despite Growing Pessimism27:40 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=1660s] Demographics, Deficits, and the K-Shaped Economy30:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=1820s] Ray Dalio, Empires, and Avoiding Conflict33:30 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=2010s] How Lyn Alden Is Positioning Her Portfolio34:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=2090s] Why the Traditional 60/40 Portfolio May Be Changing38:10 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=2290s] Orange Juice: Lyn's New Investment Venture40:10 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=2410s] Writing Fiction, Building Ideas, and Long-Term Thinking41:30 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSzFhnTAGos&t=2490s] Closing Thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe [https://robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

The Hidden Challenge of Bringing Crypto to Wall Street

What does it take for one of the world's largest financial institutions to adopt an entirely new technology?Morgan Stanley's Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Amy Oldenburg, joins Exploring Prosperity to discuss the hidden challenge of bringing crypto, tokenization, stablecoins, and blockchain technology into a global financial institution.Most conversations about digital assets focus on prices, regulation, or the latest market cycle. This conversation focuses on something deeper: how innovation actually moves from the outside into the institutions that society already depends upon.Drawing on more than two decades at Morgan Stanley, Amy explains why large organizations often struggle to innovate, what she calls the challenge of institutional transformation, and why understanding both emerging technology and legacy financial infrastructure has become increasingly valuable.We discuss:• How Amy's experience in emerging markets led her to Bitcoin and digital assets• Why Morgan Stanley began exploring digital assets years before most institutions• The internal resistance new technologies face inside large organizations• What "institutional grade" really means• Why tokenization is about far more than crypto investing• How stablecoins may strengthen the global role of the U.S. dollar• The infrastructure required to support 24/7 financial markets• Why user experience ultimately drives technology adoption• How AI and digital assets are accelerating financial modernization• The opportunities and challenges facing Wall Street over the next decadeOne of the most fascinating themes in this discussion is the role of the translator: people who understand both the culture of innovation and the realities of large institutions. As digital assets continue moving into the financial mainstream, that role may become one of the most important in finance.If you enjoy thoughtful conversations about technology, markets, institutions, Bitcoin, AI, and the future of financial services, subscribe and join us for future episodes.Subscribe to my Substack for more in depth analyses of these topics: https://robertdewey3.substack.com/Thank you very much to our sponsors:Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7G#DigitalAssets #Tokenization #MorganStanley Timestamps:00:00 Highlights01:05 How Amy Oldenburg Found Crypto Through Emerging Markets07:25 Why Bitcoin Made Sense Outside the Developed World10:35 Morgan Stanley's First Digital Asset Working Groups11:25 The "Innovation Firewall" Inside Large Institutions13:00 Why Financial Firms Struggle to Innovate17:45 The Regulatory Turning Point for Digital Assets21:35 From Experimentation to Firm-Wide Strategy22:25 Amy's Role as Head of Digital Asset Strategy26:40 What Does "Institutional Grade" Really Mean?30:40 The Most Important Use Cases for Digital Assets36:20 Tokenization, AI, and the Future of Financial Infrastructure42:10 The Biggest Challenges Facing Institutional Adoption46:00 Tokenization, New Products, and the Future of Finance48:25 Closing Thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe [https://robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

What Happens When Everyone Has Institutional Investing Tools?

Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming investing, wealth management, and the global economy — but what happens to human judgment when information becomes instantly accessible?Ram Ahluwalia hosted me as a guest this week and in this conversation we discuss:• how AI compresses the time between information and decision-making• why human judgment still matters in investing• the collapse of traditional institutional advantages• how technology historically reshapes financial markets• why AI may expand entrepreneurship instead of eliminating work• the future of portfolio management, investing, and financial intelligenceThe discussion explores the evolution from the fax-machine era of Wall Street to AI-native investing tools, the limits of artificial intelligence, and the role of intuition and conviction.Topics include:AI investingHuman judgment vs AIThe future of wealth managementInstitutional investingInformation asymmetryStock market investingEntrepreneurship and AIPortfolio managementThe future of workTechnology and economic progressSubscribe for weekly conversations and essays on AI, economics, technology, Bitcoin, energy, markets, and long-term human progress.Subscribe to my Substack for more in depth analyses of these topics: https://robertdewey3.substack.com/Thank you very much to our sponsors:Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7GTimestamps:00:00 Why Americans Became So Pessimistic About the Future03:25 Ken Griffin’s AI Warning to Wall Street05:15 Why There Will Never Be a Shortage of Problems to Solve06:20 What AI Is Good At — And What It Isn’t07:35 “AI Doesn’t Think. It Simulates Thought.”08:30 Sponsor: Foundation Passport Prime09:05 Why AI May Expand Entrepreneurship10:40 How AI Is Transforming Investing and Wealth Management12:00 How Institutional Investing Became Democratized14:15 AI Is Compressing Institutional Advantages16:10 Why Human Judgment Still Matters in Investing17:00 What Happens When Everyone Has Institutional Information?19:15 The New Scarce Asset: Time and Attention21:00 Can AI Capture Most Investment Alpha?22:00 Why Non-Consensus Investing Will Never Disappear24:20 Why Too Much Capital Destroys Alpha24:45 The Limits of AI and the Importance of Human Intuition This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe [https://robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Can AI Really Go Rogue? Why Today’s AI Fears May Be Overstated

Artificial intelligence is advancing rapidly, but how realistic are the fears about rogue AI, AGI, and machines turning against humanity?In this conversation, a clip from my previous interview with Albert Berdellans, Global Head of AI at Invenium, he discusses some of the biggest misconceptions surrounding artificial intelligence, autonomous agents, AI safety, and the future of large language models.We discuss:• whether AI can actually “want” things• the fear of rogue AI and the “Terminator” scenario• recent stories involving Meta and Alibaba AI systems• why current AI models simulate reasoning rather than think• AI-enabled weapons and the future of warfare• why fear of AI may be overstated• how blockchain could function as a control layer for AI systemsAlbert argues that most fears around AI come from misunderstanding what today’s AI models actually are and how they function under the hood.If you’re trying to build a clearer framework for understanding artificial intelligence beyond the hype and fear, I think you’ll find this conversation valuable. Watch the full interview here: Thank you to our sponsors:Foundation: Secure your digital life with Passport Prime, an all-in-one personal security platform for passwords, files, 2FA, and Bitcoin storage. Visit https://foundation.xyz/River: River is engineered for long-term Bitcoin investors. Learn more at https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7GTimestamps:00:00 — Can AI Go Rogue?00:22 — “The Terminator Thesis”01:41 — Nuclear Weapons vs AI Fear02:18 — AI Warfare and Autonomous Weapons02:52 — Why Bioengineering May Be More Dangerous Than AI03:04 — Alibaba AI Mining Bitcoin?03:27 — Meta AI Agent Bypassing Security Controls03:54 — Why AI Appears Creative04:36 — Chess Engines, Go, and AI Problem Solving05:03 — Fearmongering Around AI05:23 — The Claude “Blackmail” Example05:47 — AI Still Doesn’t Have Independent Motivation06:05 — The Real Risks of AI06:18 — Why Blockchain Matters for AI Safety06:56 — “Blockchain Is the Tracks, AI Is the Engine” This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe [https://robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Money Is Political | Bitcoin, AI & the Future of Markets

Jeff Park joined usfor a deep discussion on Bitcoin, AI, Federal Reserve policy, financial markets, volatility, and the future of the global monetary system.Jeff explains why “money is always political,” why markets are beginning to behave more like wartime markets than peacetime markets, and why the relationship between the Treasury and Federal Reserve may become one of the defining macro stories of the next decade.We discuss:- Bitcoin as political money- AI and the rising cost of capital- why markets no longer trade purely on fundamentals- Fed independence vs Fed interdependence- the future of Bitcoin treasury companies- MicroStrategy and monetizing volatility- why Bitcoin’s volatility may actually be its greatest strength- institutional adoption of Bitcoin- whether Bitcoin creates systemic risk- Bitcoin vs altcoins- optimism, AI, and long-term human progressJeff also explains:- why the market clearing price of compute may be far higher than people expect- why volatility and liquidity together create healthy markets- how MicroStrategy transformed Bitcoin volatility into yield- why sovereign adoption could fundamentally change Bitcoin’s role in the global systemIf you enjoy conversations about Bitcoin, macroeconomics, AI, markets, the Federal Reserve, financial engineering, and the future of human progress, subscribe to Exploring Prosperity for more long-form interviews.Thank you to our sponsors:Foundation: Secure your digital life with Passport Prime, an all-in-one personal security platform for passwords, files, 2FA, and Bitcoin storage. Visit https://foundation.xyz/ [https://foundation.xyz/]River: River is engineered for long-term Bitcoin investors. Learn more at https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7G [https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7G]Timestamps:00:00 “Money Is Political”00:17 Why Markets Feel Disconnected From Politics00:42 Wartime Markets vs Peacetime Markets02:29 Political Capital Allocation & National Security03:20 AI, Productivity & Concentrated Markets05:12 AI, The Cost of Capital & The Cost of Labor06:07 Why We Don’t Know the Real Price of AI Yet09:58 AI, Human Capital & Productivity10:44 Kevin Warsh & The Future of the Federal Reserve12:10 Why The Fed Has Lost Credibility13:24 Financial Stability vs Market Function15:25 Moral Hazard & Modern Central Banking18:13 Is Bitcoin The Remedy For A Runaway Fed?18:45 “Money Is Always Political”19:37 Fed Independence vs Fed Interdependence22:09 Does Institutional Adoption Change Bitcoin?24:32 Could Bitcoin Become Part of The System?27:45 Bitcoin’s Core Value Is Its Volatility31:47 Why Bitcoin Must Be Volatile32:26 How MicroStrategy Monetizes Volatility36:36 “Volatility Actually Is Yield”38:51 Why MSTR Created Preferred Securities43:01 The Future of Bitcoin Treasury Companies46:33 Does Bitcoin Create Systemic Risk?49:45 Bitcoin vs Altcoins50:10 Why Bitcoin Is Different From Altcoins51:44 Optimism, AI & The Future of Prosperity This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe [https://robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]