The Risks Ahead for Ukraine

The Electrotech Stack at Risk: China, AI, and America's Energy Supply Chains

The United States is in the early stages of a generational energy buildout driven by soaring AI demand and accelerating digitization of the grid itself. But even as hundreds of billions of dollars flow into batteries, power electronics, and the embedded software that will give America’s electrical infrastructure its digital nervous system, the United States remains dependent on China for the tools to build it. Beijing dominates much of this “electrotech stack,” and that dependence is not only creating supply vulnerabilities – it’s threatening to undermine the very security advantages a modernized grid is meant to deliver. The most pressing danger, however, may not be Chinese hardware but rather American policy paralysis: overcorrection that delays the technologies this buildout demands, or indecision that continues ceding strategic ground to Beijing. A new paper by FDD and Carnegie Mellon’s Institute for Strategy and Technology (CMIST), Electrotech Moneyball: An Industrial Strategy for Ranking Risk and Opportunity in Energy & AI Supply Chains [https://www.cmu.edu/cmist/tech-and-policy/electrotech-moneyball/index.html], responds to this moment with a clear framework for achieving the greatest strategic return. To discuss “Electrotech Moneyball,” FDD and CMIST will host an on-the-record discussion moderated by Harry Krejsa, director of studies at CMIST, featuring Phoebe Benich, non-resident fellow at CMIST; RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, senior director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI); Jackie Siebens, vice president of public affairs at Helion Energy and non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council; and Dr. Emma Stewart, non-resident fellow at CMIST and lead for Idaho National Laboratory’s Center for Securing Digital Energy Technology. For more, check out: https://www.fdd.org/events/2026/05/28/the-electrotech-stack-at-risk-china-ai-and-americas-energy-supply-chains/ [https://www.fdd.org/events/2026/05/28/the-electrotech-stack-at-risk-china-ai-and-americas-energy-supply-chains/]

The Risks Ahead for Ukraine

As NATO Foreign Ministers convene and ceasefire negotiations remain unresolved, the state of Ukraine's military — its resilience, its vulnerabilities, and its strategic horizon — demands sober assessment from those who have seen it firsthand. RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery just completed two weeks in Ukraine, meeting with senior intelligence and armed forces leaders in Kyiv and Kharkiv, conducting pro-bono training with Ukrainian military units, and participating in an influence operations conference. His observations arrive at a moment when U.S. policy decisions are actively reshaping the conditions under which Ukraine fights.

Previewing the Trump-Xi Summit

As President Trump prepares to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, the summit arrives not as a diplomatic breakthrough but as a carefully managed pause in an accelerating strategic competition. FDD Senior Fellow Craig Singleton framed the meeting as a continuation of last fall's tactical trade truce — "stalemate with a stage" — in which both sides are protecting the trade and tariff lane while continuing to apply pressure everywhere else. Expected deliverables remain narrow by design: agricultural purchases, Boeing orders, and a Board of Trade mechanism to separate lower-risk commerce from sensitive technology sectors. Elaine Dezenski, senior director of FDD's Center on Economic and Financial Power, identified China's dollar dependency as its structural Achilles heel and flagged the fentanyl front as largely unresolved, with roughly 97% of Chinese precursor chemical manufacturers now accepting cryptocurrency, shifting money flows beyond the reach of regulated financial institutions. On Iran, she noted Beijing's dual-track posture: publicly ordering Chinese firms to defy U.S. sanctions on Iranian refineries while quietly directing its largest banks to suspend new loans to those same entities. RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, senior director of FDD's Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, identified Taiwan as the summit's highest-risk variable, warning that any restraint on foreign military sales would be deeply damaging given a U.S. arms delivery backlog already exceeding $20 billion. He cautioned equally against any shift in declaratory policy toward opposing rather than merely not supporting Taiwan independence, which Beijing would immediately weaponize in a lawfare campaign against Taipei. Craig Singleton is a senior fellow and senior director of FDD's China Program. Elaine Dezenski is senior director and head of FDD's Center on Economic and Financial Power. RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery is a senior fellow and senior director of FDD's Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation. The call was moderated by Joe Dougherty, FDD's senior director of Communications. For more, check out: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/05/07/previewing-the-trump-xi-summit/ [https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/05/07/previewing-the-trump-xi-summit/]

AI on the Front Line: Lessons from the Iran Conflict

The conflict in Iran reveals urgent lessons about AI as a weapon of war and statecraft. Led by one of Washington's top experts on Iranian strategy, military doctrine, and the IRGC, this panel provides an assessment of how the Iranian regime has used autonomous systems and machine learning to expand its reach; how AI tools have supercharged propaganda campaigns and cyber-enabled information warfare; and in the financial realm, how emerging technologies have enabled large-scale fraud and illicit funding of Tehran's proxies. What does the Iranian regime's battlefield experimentation reveal? And how can the policy, technical, and intelligence communities respond? To explore these questions and more, join Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of FDD's Iran Program; Max Lesser, senior analyst on emerging threats at FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI); and Max Meizlish, research fellow at FDD's the Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP), at the Special Competitive Studies Project's AI+ Expo. For more, check out: https://www.fdd.org/events/2026/05/06/ai-on-the-front-line-lessons-from-the-iran-conflict/ [https://www.fdd.org/events/2026/05/06/ai-on-the-front-line-lessons-from-the-iran-conflict/]

A Gameplan for American Economic Security

Join Elaine Dezenski, CEFP senior director and head; Josh Birenbaum, CEFP deputy director; and Thomas Hill, as they break down a forthcoming CEFP memo, ‘A Gameplan for American Economic Security.’ This comprehensive and actionable economic security framework articulates how the United States can strengthen alliances, reinforce market transparency and accountability, and defend against growing economic coercion from adversarial states exploiting market vulnerabilities. The memo offers policymakers and the private sector new ways of addressing emerging economic and national security threats and opportunities.  The conversation will begin with introductory remarks by Juan C. Zarate, CEFP chairman, and is moderated by the Washington Post's Warren P. Strobel. For more, check out: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/05/04/a-gameplan-for-american-economic-security-supercharging-u-s-statecraft-from-an-economic-pentagon-to-the-near-global-economy/ [https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/05/04/a-gameplan-for-american-economic-security-supercharging-u-s-statecraft-from-an-economic-pentagon-to-the-near-global-economy/]