The Second Derivative

The Second Derivative

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging (02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream (04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea (05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal (08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals (11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit (13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears (18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs (19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality (27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy (32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk (40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking (47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click (48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology (51:09) - YOLO Trading Era (53:57) - Savings Floor Risks (55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze (56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers (58:30) - Politics And The Fed (01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals (01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics (01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth (01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update (01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns (01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space (01:17:43) - World Cup Preview (01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard (01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions (01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate (01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]

Forty Meters Under Fordow

Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's diminishing leverage window, and why the emerging deal is arguably a worse JCPOA. They pivot to Gen Z's eroding relationship with nationalism, Erdoğan's assault on Turkey's main opposition party, protests in Serbia AND OF COURSE close on the NBA playoffs. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (01:03) - Cousins Reunite!! (01:58) - Iran Ceasefire Strikes Update (05:20) - Deal Dynamics And Domestic Politics (09:07) - Military Posture And Hormuz Leverage (31:52) - Israel Spoiler And Regional Fallout (34:08) - Ebola Outbreak Background (37:13) - Why Ebola Gets Ignored (38:21) - Deglobalization And Pandemic Risk (41:23) - Vaccines Versus Political Will (43:40) - Marco Responds And MAGA Critique (48:17) - Global Health Reality Check (49:07) - Ebola Lessons and Limits (51:06) - Why US Must Engage (55:22) - Serbia Trip and Protests (57:43) - Gen Z Standards Revolution (01:03:30) - No Plan After Protest (01:06:54) - Censorship and Shared Culture (01:08:39) - Metaverse Versus Nationhood (01:20:33) - Turkey Opposition Crackdown (01:23:59) - AOC Mailbag and AI Politics (01:25:23) - NBA Takes Meet Geopolitics (01:30:00) - Victor Wembanyama Era -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]

TVI26: C***** Goes #1

Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3! Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 [https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 ] -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping (01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered (03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs (05:37) - Ejecting Netanyahu TBD (06:09) - Cyprus Surprise Pick (08:37) - Finland NATO and Stubb (10:21) - Zelensky Case for Top Tier (20:34) - Pope Leo XIV Rising Influence (27:15) - Mitsotakis and Greece Comeback (32:53) - Modi and Sheinbaum Rankings (35:28) - Bukele Drops to Four (37:58) - Mark Carney Goes Number One (40:14) - Carney Goes Number One (40:50) - Steph Curry Comparison (41:46) - Bulking Up Canada (43:38) - Devils Advocate Pushback (45:21) - Trade Value Logic (46:54) - Full Rankings Recap (52:28) - Why Trump Missed Cut (57:41) - Biggest Movers Data (01:00:20) - Ideology Bias Breakdown (01:02:46) - Regional Bias Breakdown (01:05:32) - Starting Five Metaphors (01:06:46) - Xi and Jokic Deep Dive (01:13:34) - Wrap Up and Corrections -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]

TVI26: Jinping Rising

2026 Trade Values P2 :) -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:42) - Part Two Setup (02:31) - Lula at Fifteen (05:17) - Macron Debate (09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime (11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising (13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive (17:28) - Japan New Prime Pick (21:46) - Denmark and Greenland Standoff (24:03) - List Mixup and Denmark (25:17) - Xi Jinping Rising (26:53) - Xi Strengths and Risks (31:28) - Javier Milei Debate (34:08) - Rapid Fire Picks (37:42) - Top 10 Countdown (38:01) - Guatemala and Singapore (39:25) - Meloni and Sheinbaum (44:11) - Modi in Top Five (47:59) - Wrap and Next Part -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]

TVI26: Benchwarmers

The Trade Value Index is back!!!!!!! Part 1. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Housekeeping (00:47) - Why We Love Rankings (02:15) - Trade Value Rules Explained (06:59) - How We Score Leaders (08:29) - What Trade Value Means (11:03) - Last Year Rankings Recap (13:01) - Wins Misses and Dropoffs (19:43) - Starting the Countdown (20:00) - Jacob Cuts and Bottom Five (26:12) - Vietnam Surprise Pick (27:44) - Marco Honorable Mentions (30:58) - Dishonorable Mentions and Merz (32:34) - Merz Under Fire (33:41) - Hopeful Turnaround Talk (34:52) - Greenland Surprise Pick (36:23) - Nepal Gen Z Rookie (41:04) - Lula Back on Board (46:56) - Sri Lanka and Hungary Upside (49:44) - Meloni Slips Down (52:10) - Erdogan and Turkey’s Long Game (55:05) - Middle East and Africa Rankings (57:55) - Pakistan’s Geopolitical Comeback (01:00:53) - Syria’s New Strongman (01:02:35) - Sweden and Spain Reassessment (01:06:55) - Singapore’s Efficiency Model (01:08:58) - System Made Singapore (01:10:02) - Trade Value Debate (01:11:01) - Lee Jae Myung Profile (01:12:59) - Israel Tweet Controversy (01:16:55) - Prabowo Indonesia Wrap (01:19:49) - Iran Council Ranked (01:20:56) - Netanyahu Tradeoff Case (01:22:19) - Morocco Quiet Success (01:28:20) - Israel Umbilical Cord (01:37:34) - Gulf Royals Picks (01:40:34) - UAE Critique And Close -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com [https://audiographies.com] -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com [https://jacobshapiro.com] Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416] Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap [https://x.com/JacobShap] Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe [https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe] -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic [https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic] Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/] Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic [https://x.com/Geo_papic] Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro [https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro]