Florence Gaub on reading the future: War, weak signals, & wild scenarios

Florence Gaub on reading the future: War, weak signals, & wild scenarios

Leaders are drowning in crises, yet Florence Gaub argues their real competitive edge lies in how they imagine the future. In this episode of Leaders Unplugged with David Bach, the NATO Defense College research director, futurist and military strategist explains why “strategic foresight is the gym for the mind,” how weak signals from distant places, online communities and emerging technologies can reveal tomorrow’s shocks, and why reducing surprise buys organizations their most precious asset: time.  Gaub dissects the Strait of Hormuz, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and China’s climate strategy to show how wishful thinking at the highest levels can cripple even the most sophisticated governments – and what executives must do differently. Gaub insists that “all companies above a certain size today will be affected by geopolitics” and that every leadership team should build an annual discipline of horizon scanning and scenario work. She argues that whoever “finds the right answers to climate change first” will define the next global power hierarchy, that science fiction is a good indicator for future conflicts, and shares answers to a deceptively simple question: “What future would you be willing to fight for?” Our guest Florence Gaub is a Franco-German political scientist, military strategist, and futurist. She is Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College in Rome. Before joining NATO in her current role in 2023 (she also worked at NATO from 2009-2013), she was Deputy Director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris and served as a foresight adviser within the EU system. Her books include The Future: A User’s Guide [https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-future/], and Szenario, a current nominee for for the German non-fiction award. She is also the co-host of the Munich Security Conference podcast The Art of Diplomacy [https://open.spotify.com/show/5GghlDp7DBGSUdWQmV1suJ?si=fe452159d4d14fe6].  Resources mentioned in this episode 1. Fears of a Setting Sun: The Disillusionment of America’s Founders https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691210230/fears-of-a-setting-sun [https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691210230/fears-of-a-setting-sun] 2. New Scientisthttps://www.newscientist.com/ [https://www.newscientist.com/] 3. NATO Archives: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified.htm [https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified.htm]NATO-Russia Founding Act, 1997: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm [https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm] 4. 2018 US National Defense Strategy https://media.defense.gov/2020/May/18/2002302061/-1/-1/1/2018-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-SUMMARY.PDF [https://media.defense.gov/2020/May/18/2002302061/-1/-1/1/2018-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-SUMMARY.PDF] 5. 2022 US National Security Strategy https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf [https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf] 6. The Weaponisation of Everything: A Field Guide to the New Way of War — Mark Galeotti https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300270419/the-weaponisation-of-everything/ [https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300270419/the-weaponisation-of-everything/] 7. Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness-book/ [https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness-book/] 8. NATO 2099 https://www.ndc.nato.int/nato-2099-the-science-fiction-anthology/ [https://www.ndc.nato.int/nato-2099-the-science-fiction-anthology/]https://www.ndc.nato.int/nato-2099-a-graphic-novel/ [https://www.ndc.nato.int/nato-2099-a-graphic-novel/] 9. Florence Gaub and Roderick Parkes: “Is Europe Too Soft to Fight?” https://warontherocks.com/is-europe-too-soft-to-fight/ [https://warontherocks.com/is-europe-too-soft-to-fight/] Enjoyed this conversation? 🔔 Subscribe to Leaders Unplugged for candid conversations with the impactful: Apple [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/leaders-unplugged/id1803572933] | Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/3yNFN82NfiTcNwaV0E8FNm?si=ecaa98951ffe44b0] | YouTube [https://youtu.be/gxmiCp7cpko?si=g0qAwPbb3WptvGgD] Connect with IMD: Follow IMD on Instagram: @imdbusinessschool   Follow IMD on LinkedIn: @imd-business-school   Follow IMD on BlueSky: @imdbusinessschool.bsky.social Follow IMD on Facebook: @imdbschool   Follow IMD on Substack: https://substack.com/@ibyimd

Jake Sullivan on power, industrial strategy, and the new global order

What does it mean to lead in a world where the United States — the anchor of the post-war order — has become "the biggest disruptor in the world"?  In this episode of Leaders Unplugged, IMD's David Bach sits down with Jake Sullivan, former National Security Advisor to President Biden, for a frank, wide-ranging conversation on the forces reshaping global business, geopolitics, and the social compact. From the collapse of allied trust to Iran's newly proven ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, this is the geopolitical briefing every senior executive needs. Sullivan argues that Trump "does not believe that allies are assets — he thinks they are liabilities," that the Iran war was "entirely a war of choice, an elective war," and that the era of assuming innovation dominance without industrial strength is over: "The United States has to concern itself with being able to build."  On AI and the future of work, he warns that we need "fundamentally new answers" to the question of "where does the human fit in, in an age of exploding technology?" — and that no political leader has yet emerged to deliver them.  Our guest: Jake Sullivan served as National Security Advisor to President Joe Biden from 2021 to 2025, helping shape U.S. responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, strategic competition with China, the wars in the Middle East, and the growing intersection of technology and geopolitics. A longtime adviser to both Biden and Hillary Clinton, Sullivan was also one of the architects of the Iran nuclear deal during the Obama administration and a leading voice behind the idea of a “foreign policy for the middle class.” Today, he is the inaugural Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order at Harvard Kennedy School, a faculty affiliate at Harvard’s Belfer Center, a Senior Fellow at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy, and co-host of the foreign policy podcast “The Long Game” alongside his former deputy Jon Finer. Harvard Kennedy School faculty profile: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/jake-sullivan [https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/jake-sullivan]  X: @jakejsullivan  Resources * Jake Sullivan, “The Tech High Ground,” *Foreign Affairs:    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/tech-high-ground-jake-sullivan [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/tech-high-ground-jake-sullivan] * Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi, “Underestimating China”:    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/underestimating-china [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/underestimating-china]  * The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer: https://podcasts.voxmedia.com/show/the-long-game [https://podcasts.voxmedia.com/show/the-long-game] * Dan Wang, “Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future”: https://danwang.co/breakneck/ [https://danwang.co/breakneck/]

Kati ter Horst on being a first-time CEO when the old rules are gone

Kati ter Horst leads Outokumpu, the world's leader in sustainable stainless steel, at a moment when the old assumptions of globalization are breaking down. In this episode of Leaders Unplugged, she joins IMD President David Bach to discuss her transition from board member to first-time CEO, and how she is building a new strategy for her colleagues in nearly 30 countries, while navigating tariffs, AI, and geopolitical conflicts. Kati’s warning is direct: “the rules are gone.” Her call to action is equally clear: “Europe can compete.” And one of her key learnings from the first 18 months as CEO? “You have to protect your time.” Our guest: Kati ter Horst is President and CEO of Outokumpu, the Helsinki-based global leader in sustainable stainless steel. She has been in the role since October 2024, after nearly a decade on the company’s board. Before Outokumpu, she held senior leadership roles at Stora Enso and Aliaxis, gaining deep experience in manufacturing, sustainability, and large-scale transformation.

Oona Hathaway, should we still believe in the global order?

Oona Hathaway on war, global rules, and why business leaders may regret staying silent as international law is violated. Why does international law matter? How illegal is the Iran war? And what does business have to do with it?  In this episode of Leaders Unplugged, IMD President David Bach hosts Yale professor Oona Hathaway for a candid conversation about war, international law, and the growing strain on the post-war global order. Hathaway argues that international law is often most important when it is least visible: it works “in the background,” shaping what states know they can and can’t do. But when leaders start treating the rules as optional, even the unthinkable suddenly seems possible. As she puts it, “international law tends to be fairly invisible when it’s working well,” but now “the Trump administration is putting this all on the table.” She also warns that “business leaders have been really quiet,” even as the erosion of legal norms introduces new volatility into global markets. Her message to them is clear: “If they don't speak out and if the president actually does what he's threatening to do, we're going to be in a much more unstable world where business is going to be extraordinarily risky.”  Our guest Oona Hathaway Gerard C. and Bernice Latrobe Smith Professor of International Law, Yale Law School Oona Hathaway is one of the world’s leading experts on international law and global governance. She is a professor at Yale Law School and Yale University, and president-elect of the American Society of International Law. She is co-author of The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World, and author of the upcoming book, Citizens. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oona-hathaway [https://www.linkedin.com/in/oona-hathaway]BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/oonahathaway.bsky.social [https://bsky.app/profile/oonahathaway.bsky.social] Yale profile: https://law.yale.edu/oona-hathaway [https://law.yale.edu/oona-hathaway] Personal website: oonahathaway.com [http://authory.com/OonaHathaway/subscribe] Resources * Over 100 International Law Experts Warn: U.S. Strikes on Iran Violate UN Charter and May Be War Crimes: https://www.justsecurity.org/135423/professors-letter-international-law-iran-war/ [https://www.justsecurity.org/135423/professors-letter-international-law-iran-war/]  * The Internationalists (Hathaway & Shapiro): https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/561345/the-internationalists-by-oona-a-hathaway-and-scott-j-shapiro/ [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/561345/the-internationalists-by-oona-a-hathaway-and-scott-j-shapiro/]   * UN Charter: https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter [https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter]  * Geneva Conventions: https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law [https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law]

Kirsty Coventry (IOC) on why leaders should train - and fail - like Olympians

In this episode of Leaders Unplugged, David Bach sits down with IOC President Kirsty Coventry to explore how she is navigating one of the most complex leadership roles in global sport today. From the IOC’s new transgender policy on women’s sports – “it's very clear on the medical and scientific proof that transgender athletes have an advantage” – to the success of Milano Cortina and the future relevance of the Olympic Games, Coventry offers a candid look at how she makes decisions under pressure. As the first woman and first African in her role, Coventry also describes a strategic shift she is pushing for inside the IOC: away from trying to be “everything to everyone… but a little bit unrealistic” and toward a sharper focus on the core of the Olympic Games. Her message for leaders everywhere is clear: “If everyone's happy then you're probably not doing the right thing.” Drawing on her experience as an Olympic champion, she makes the case that athletes may offer a blueprint for modern leadership: “We are consistently good at getting criticism – because it's the one way we get better.”  Our guest Kirsty Coventry President, International Olympic Committee Kirsty Coventry is the President of the International Olympic Committee, the first woman and first African to hold the role. A Zimbabwean former swimmer, she is a multiple Olympic medalist, served as Zimbabwe’s Minister of Sport, and previously chaired the IOC Athletes’ Commission. LinkedIn: https://zw.linkedin.com/in/kirsty-coventry [https://zw.linkedin.com/in/kirsty-coventry]Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/officialkirstycoventry/ [https://www.instagram.com/officialkirstycoventry/]IOC profile: https://www.olympics.com/ioc/mrs-kirsty-coventry [https://www.olympics.com/ioc/mrs-kirsty-coventry]Athlete profile: https://www.olympics.com/en/athletes/kirsty-leigh-coventry [https://www.olympics.com/en/athletes/kirsty-leigh-coventry]