NAB Morning Call

Them and the rest of us

Thursday 7th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer [https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf]  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - [https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT] NAB [https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT] There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin, but there’s no doubt Trump’s promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on the terminal rate in the US.   ---------------------------------------- Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy [https://acast.com/privacy] for more information.

Long time coming

Wednesday 6th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer [https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf]  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - [https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT] NAB [https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT] Polls start closing in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Virginia, which closes late morning Australia time, was called by Associated Press within 36 minutes last time. So, we could start to get a picture of how each candidate is faring by lunchtime today, even if the final outcome could take time – possibly weeks. Something else that could take longer than originally envisaged, a cut by the RBA.  Australia’s approach with shallower hikes means there’s less rush to cut rates and February is looking a little less likely. Taylor talks through the points from yesterday’s RBA meeting. Plus, why today is an important one for New Zealand. ---------------------------------------- Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy [https://acast.com/privacy] for more information.

Wafer thin difference

Tuesday 5th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer [https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf]  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - [https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT] NAB [https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT] Markets have responded to a poll over the weekend which showed a swing in favour of Kamala Harris in Iowa. It was driven, apparently, by more older women expressing a preference. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Iowa isn’t normally considered a swing state, so there is the question about whether this could be replicated across the country. But we haven’t seen a massive unwinding of positions that you might associate with the Trump trade. The RBA meets today and there will be a lot of focus on what’s in and out of the statement, and whether there’s a more concerted effort to drive market expectations further back into mid-2025. ---------------------------------------- Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy [https://acast.com/privacy] for more information.

Jobs take back seat as election drives the markets

Monday 4th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer [https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/nab-research-disclaimer.pdf]  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - [https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT] NAB [https://www.nab.com.au/financial-services-guide?S_KWCID=SEACT] Mid-morning Wednesday Australia time the polls close in the US and soon after, hopefully, the world will know the choice made from two very different political and economic agendas. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this uncertainty is showing through in the data. It’s been blamed for the fall in the US manufacturing index on Friday, for example. It perhaps also explains why there was a limited response to Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, which showed an unexpected contraction in employment growth. Also today, is NVIDIA about to overtake Apple as the highest valued company on the planet? ---------------------------------------- Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy [https://acast.com/privacy] for more information.

Weekend Edition: Has affordability finally hit home price growth?

Friday 1st November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here [https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/notice/corporate/CIB-podcast-disclaimer-aug-2023.pdf]. Australian house prices have defied logic. Core Logic’s Eliza Owen says when interest rates rise you should see asset prices come down. In theory. Yet the last rate rise, in November last year, coincided with a fresh record high in home values. Now homes in NSW have increased in value for 20 consecutive months. Until now. Today’s data, for October, shows the growth streak in Sydney has been broken. Eliza joins Phil to break down the detail on trends in home prices across the country. ---------------------------------------- Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy [https://acast.com/privacy] for more information.