Cheryl Strauss Einhorn on decision-making

Yohan Iddawela on using satellites for economic data

Welcome to another episode of Patterns and Stories. Joining us today is Yohan Iddawela [https://www.linkedin.com/in/yohaniddawela], a data scientist at the Asian Development Bank. Yohan studies the use of satellite data as a tool for estimating economic development in areas where reliable economic data may be scarce. We are your hosts, Luca Dellanna [https://luca-dellanna.com/] and Ismail Manik [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ismail-manik-8234179]. The AI-generated transcript was lightly edited for grammar and fluency. Highlights * “What's probably most interesting for development practitioners, public policy practitioners, is how we can use this type of alternative satellite-based data to proxy for economic activity, particularly when official statistics are not present or are not of high quality.” * “We went to Uganda and were trying to understand why the manufacturing industry in Kampala was somewhat stagnating. We had a number of different theories around why that was the case. We thought it could be related to the high cost of imports, the exchange rate depreciating, and the high cost of borrowing. So interest rates were really high, electricity wasn't very stable, and so on. We went in and surveyed about 150 different firms of all sizes to work out what the actual problem was. And something really interesting came back, which we didn't expect. A lot of these people we interviewed said one of the main problems was around the quality of local governments.” * “I feel like large language models are reducing the barrier to working with this data because now you can work with it using natural language. […] It might require some sort of debugging, and I feel like it moves you from being someone who creates code to someone who edits code.” Links * Yohan’s LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/yohaniddawela] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit patternsandstories.substack.com [https://patternsandstories.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Philipp Krause on Public Finance Management

Welcome to another episode of Patterns and Stories. Joining us today is Philipp Krause, an international expert in public finance and public administration, professor, and author. He has advised more than 25 governments worldwide on strengthening public management, budgeting, and fiscal governance. We are your hosts, Luca Dellanna [https://luca-dellanna.com/] and Ismail Manik [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ismail-manik-8234179]. The AI-generated transcript was lightly edited for grammar and fluency. Favorite highlight “Everything that the Ministry of Finance tries to do at the end of the day is to influence the way that other ministries that are actually in charge of the spending budgets are spending the money.” Links * Philipp’s LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/philipp-krause-9443271a/] * Philipp’s academic website [https://www.uni-potsdam.de/en/politik-und-regieren/team/standard-titel/dr-philipp-krause] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit patternsandstories.substack.com [https://patternsandstories.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Guru Madhavan on Systems Engineering

Welcome to another episode of Patterns and Stories. Joining us today is Guru Madhavan, a biomedical engineer, senior policy adviser, and author of “Wicked Problems.” Guru conducts research at the National Academy of Sciences, lives in Washington, DC, and has been named a distinguished young scientist by the World Economic Forum. We are your hosts, Luca Dellanna [https://luca-dellanna.com/] and Ismail Manik [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ismail-manik-8234179]. The AI-generated transcript was lightly edited for grammar and fluency. Highlights * “Engineering is peer reviewed by reality.” * “Engineering is the carrier of history. It’s both an instrument and an infrastructure of politics. The act of know-how that is far older than the science of know-what.” * “Engineers are as much problem creators as they are problem solvers.” Links * Guru’s LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/bioengineer] * Guru’s Twitter [https://x.com/BioengineerGM?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor] * Guru’s book [https://amzn.to/3Fg7KM5] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit patternsandstories.substack.com [https://patternsandstories.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Cheryl Strauss Einhorn on decision-making

Welcome to another episode of Patterns and Stories. Joining us today is Cheryl Strauss Einhorn, the author of three books [https://amzn.to/3GRePU5], including “Problem Solved.” Cheryl created the AREA Method, a decision-making system for individuals, companies, and nonprofits to solve complex problems. She also founded Decisive and is an adjunct professor at Cornell University. We are your hosts, Luca Dellanna [https://luca-dellanna.com/] and Ismail Manik [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ismail-manik-8234179]. The AI-generated transcript was lightly edited for grammar and fluency. Highlights * “By thinking about failure, we can identify the weaknesses and the vulnerabilities in the decision that we want to take so that we can hopefully shore up those weaknesses and strength-test our decision to give it an even greater likelihood of succeeding for us.” * “People want to get started on their problem-solving without actually stopping to define the problem that they're solving.” * “[On the difference between uncertainty and ambiguity:] Uncertainty is something that has a future element of unpredictability, but ambiguity is something that lacks clarity. […] So, even if it’s something that you cannot know, you likely can triangulate in a way that can help you to feel like you’ve been able to mitigate and clarify some of the ambiguity. And I think even within uncertainty, you likely can find aspects of the uncertainty that are actually not uncertain but ambiguous instead.” Links * Cheryl’s books [https://amzn.to/3FgBjNo] * Cheryl’s website [https://www.areamethod.com/] * Cheryl’s LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/cherylstrausseinhorn/] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit patternsandstories.substack.com [https://patternsandstories.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Barry Ritholtz on How Not To Invest

Welcome to another episode of Patterns and Stories. Joining us today is Barry Ritholtz, the co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and author of “Bailout Nation” and “How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth - and how to avoid them.” The latter is the focus of today’s conversation. We are your hosts, Luca Dellanna [https://luca-dellanna.com/] and Ismail Manik [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ismail-manik-8234179]. The AI-generated transcript was lightly edited for grammar and fluency. Highlights * “There's a meme on inflation that shows up on social media. Kevin McAllister, from the movie “Home Alone,” went to the supermarket in 1990 and he bought $19 worth of food. Today, that same bag of food would cost you $72. Therefore, the dollar is declining, and inflation is running amok. [This argument] is intellectually dishonest and wrong, and I'll explain why. I was in the supermarket on Sunday and I bought some milk, some yogurt, and some fruit. But when I went to the supermarket in May 2025, I used the dollars I earned in May 2025. I didn't earn a bunch of money in 1990 and then put it in an envelope and said, I'm going to hold this money aside for 35 years. […] It turns out that the dollars that we earn, the median income in the United States, has gone up a little more than the price of food.” * “If you don't know the person's track record, if you don't know their disposition or temperament, if you don't know their process, [listening to them is] like taking candy from a stranger.” * “I start the book with the story of Sam Zell, one of the most successful distressed real estate investors of all time. When he forecast recessions, they never came true. When he said we're fine, we actually already were in a recession. But [forecasting recessions] is not how he became a billionaire. He bought really valuable property from over-leveraged owners when they became deeply distressed. If you're buying Class A real estate, 40, 50, 60 % below its market value, you're going to do really well. […] His forecasting is not what made him money. His buying distressed property at a great price and then holding it for years or decades [is] how Sam Zell became a billionaire. So that's the halo effect. We believe things about people who are successful that we shouldn't [believe].” Links * Barry’s latest book [https://amzn.to/4ja8RKZ] * Barry’s website [https://ritholtz.com/] * Barry’s Twitter [https://x.com/Barry_Ritholtz] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit patternsandstories.substack.com [https://patternsandstories.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]