EP 034: T. Rowe’s TURF, is Bullish the Canadian Oil Sands & The Oil Cycle

EP 034: T. Rowe’s TURF, is Bullish the Canadian Oil Sands & The Oil Cycle

Priyal Maniar, Co-PM of TURF and Global Energy Analyst, dives deep into why T. Rowe - who manages $1.8 Trillion - is structurally bullish the oil cycle.The marginal cost of production is increasing and US shale geology has peaked meaning the next well is more expensive and less productive. The recent U.S. - Iran war, wipes out the over supply from the start of the year and pulls forward the bullish productivity decline thesis. It also puts energy security in focus and improves demand for energy sources like coal. TURF expresses the bullish oil bet through an overweight position in Oil Sands producers such as Suncor (SU), Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy. Pyrial also highlights her top U.S. oil picks that have idiosyncratic catalysts in their FCF inflections coming up. Her top idea has free cash flow doubling over the next four years at flat prices with a great management team and a great balance sheet and ample low cost inventory. She also highlights three other names with ample inventory and FCF inflections. She notes that these stocks do well when large projects wind down free cash flow inflects. 🔍 What You’ll Learn: * Why U.S. shale geology has peaked, and why that’s bullish, not bearish * How to think about the marginal barrel at $70+ and rising * Why Canadian Oil Sands offer the best duration in global energy * How mining-style economics differ from shale (OPEX vs. CAPEX curve) * The real math on Venezuela’s revival: $50-100B and 10 years * Why energy security is now a structural demand driver * How the Strait of Hormuz disruption changes Middle East midstream Global LNG after the Qatar train outages and project delays * The coal-to-gas switching dynamic setting global gas prices * Why AI power demand extends the runway for U.S. natural gas * How electrification, nuclear, and SMRs fit into the energy stack * Priyal’s top conviction names: Canadian E&Ps, and….How to use AI in the research process without getting front-runTimestamps[00:00] – Intro: U.S. Shale Peak Debate 01:00 – Why It Doesn't Matter If Shale Peaks: Cost Curve Matters 02:15 – Long Energy Cycles & S&P Energy vs. S&P 500 [03:30] – The Marginal Barrel Today: Guyana, Brazil, Middle East, Shale [05:00] – Shale Elasticity & Where Marginal Cost Goes Next[06:00] – Iran War Impact on the Oil Setup [07:15] – Energy Security as a Structural Demand Driver [08:30] – How to Express the Thesis in TURF[09:30] – Low-Cost U.S. E&Ps with Inventory & Balance Sheet [10:30]– The Canadian Oil Sands Bull Case [11:45] – Oil Sands Economics: Mining vs. Shale Decline Curves [13:00] – Why No New Greenfield Mines Get Sanctioned[14:15]– Venezuela: Heavy Oil Revival Math [15:30] – Chevron's Unique Position & Production Growth [16:45]– Political Risk: Venezuela vs. U.S. Election Cycles[18:00] – Middle East Egress & Pipeline Redundancies [19:15]– Aramco, ADNOC & National Project Dynamics [20:30] – East-West Pipeline Capacity & U.S. Expertise[21:45 ]– Global LNG: Qatar Outages & Project Delays [23:00] – Coal as the New Price-Setting Fuel [26:45] – Long-Term Bullish on Henry Hub [27:45] – Offshore Comeback: Conoco Alaska, Clearwater, Namibia, Guyana [30:30] – AI Power Demand & U.S. Gas Longevity [31:45] – Utilities, Nuclear & SMRs as Part of the Stack[33:00] – Advice for Aspiring Investors: Dig for the Next Insight [34:15] – How Priyal Uses AI in Her Research Process📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug's structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5YListen on Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

EP033 - Cerebras (CBRS): Thematic Winner in AI Compute Shortage with SemiAnalysis’ President

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Doug O’Laughlin, President of SemiAnalysis, about the explosive demand for AI infrastructure and the market reaction to Cerebras’ IPO. Doug O breaks down Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip architecture, its advantages in ultra-fast inference, and the limitations caused by memory scaling constraints. The discussion examines how NVIDIA continues to dominate large-scale AI workloads while specialized alternatives carve out niche roles in the broader compute ecosystem. They also explore the rise of agentic AI workflows, the growing economics of tokens and inference demand, and why frontier AI models are reshaping software development, legal work, and enterprise productivity. Doug O shares insights into how SemiAnalysis is using AI internally, why compute demand continues accelerating, and what the next wave of AI IPOs could mean for investors and the semiconductor industry. Tickers: #CBRS, #NVDA, #CRWV _____________________________________________________________ [00:00:00] Doug O’Laughlin compares Cerebras’ inference speed advantage to an F1 car versus NVIDIA as a bus. [00:00:20] Discussion of agentic AI workflows driving a major increase in compute demand. [00:00:31] Introduction to the episode and the focus on Cerebras’ technology and IPO. [00:01:36] Why Cerebras’ niche technology emerged during a historic compute shortage. [00:02:47] Breakdown of Cerebras’ SRAM-based architecture and the original technology bet. [00:03:55] Explanation of SRAM scaling limitations and memory density constraints. [00:05:26] Whether Cerebras can evolve beyond its current inference niche. [00:05:53] Emerging trends in disaggregated inference and hybrid AI architectures. [00:08:46] Why Cerebras can outperform NVIDIA in specific low-latency inference use cases. [00:09:10] The tradeoff between single-user speed and large-scale throughput. [00:13:18] Discussion of small language models versus frontier AI models. [00:13:45] Why Doug believes best-of-breed AI models continue to win in the market. [00:17:18] Legal industry productivity gains and concerns around shared AI training data. [00:18:07] How AI dramatically lowers the cost of accessing professional expertise. [00:19:11] Sponsor discussion and transition into Cerebras’ stock performance. [00:21:01] Doug’s perspective on the broader AI IPO environment and investor demand. [00:24:59] Supply and demand dynamics for AI-related equities and semiconductor exposure. [00:25:54] Comparison between equity enthusiasm and private credit caution in AI infrastructure. [00:26:58] Why GPU pricing increases indicate overwhelming AI compute demand. [00:28:30] Agentic AI workflows and cloud coding as the major inflection point for compute usage. [00:28:38] SemiAnalysis spending over $10,000 per week on APIs to accelerate productivity. [00:29:56] How AI tools are changing hiring needs and software engineering capabilities. [00:30:18] Examples of collapsing information work timelines through AI automation. [00:31:39] Disclosure discussion and SemiAnalysis’ relationships with leading AI companies. [00:32:09] Doug O explains SemiAnalysis’ approach to independent research and updating priors. [00:33:07] Doug O’Laughlin shares his background working on the buy side at Blue Capital. [00:34:10] Future plans for SemiAnalysis and the rise of “tokenomics” research. Links: Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 [https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508]  Doug O’Laughlin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougolaughlin/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougolaughlin/]  💡 This episode is powered by the Oxford Data Plan. Use the link here for Complimentary access  [https://oxford-dp.com/demo?utm_source=affiliate&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=pitchthepm] 📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe [https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe]

EP:32: CBRS: AI’s New Leader? With the Pre-IPO Champ

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Chris Murphy about his pre-IPO investment strategy and why $CBRS is his largest investment. Chris previously spent 17 years scaling a multi billion fund and is now focused on his pre-IPO PA (personal account) investment strategy. Chris has dug-in deep, hitting the road and reading heaps of expert call transcripts from Alpha Sense and Third Bridge. He believes inference speed will become one of the most valuable advantages in the race to AGI (artificial general intelligence). The conversation examines the advantages of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design, the growing importance of fast inference for agentic AI workflows and the price/cost trade-off. OpenAI was the first mover, securing initial capacity and options. AWS has a term sheet for capacity. The chip market is evolving and Doug & Chris debate the implications for NVIDIA, Google and Amazon. Tickers: $CBRS, $NVDA, $GOOG, $AMZN, $META [00:00:00] Chris Murphy explains why AI inference speed will become a key competitive advantage. [00:00:20] Doug Garber introduces Chris Murphy and discusses Cerebras’ IPO and price discovery. [00:00:57] Chris Murphy shares his background in public and private market investing. [00:03:44] Chris outlines his framework for evaluating pre-IPO investments. [00:04:31] Why Chris believed inference would become the AI “money maker.” [00:05:08] Chris explains how Cerebras removes bottlenecks in agentic AI workflows. [00:06:07] Discussion on token economics, inference speed, and use case advantages. [00:08:28] Cerebras’ position in fast inference versus Groq and NVIDIA. [00:09:30] Breakdown of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design and routing fabric. [00:11:48] Chris discusses the research behind his Cerebras investment thesis. [00:12:35] Expert network transcripts, proprietary calls, and diligence methods. [00:13:14] Chris walks through his revenue framework for OpenAI, AWS, and others. [00:15:12] Discussion on customer concentration risk and OpenAI exposure. [00:15:53] Why Amazon could benefit from combining Trainium with Cerebras chips. [00:17:15] Competitive positioning versus Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs. [00:18:39] Why inference is expected to outgrow training workloads. [00:20:33] Chris explains his OpenAI revenue assumptions through 2033. [00:23:48] How AWS and Anthropic fit into the broader Cerebras opportunity. [00:26:24] Chris discusses Cerebras as an “arms dealer” in the AGI race. [00:29:49] Feedback from engineers and users testing Cerebras chips. [00:32:59] How AI systems route workloads across chips and inference models. [00:34:54] Chris explains assumptions around Cerebras’ AWS inference share. [00:36:35] Discussion on pricing, leasing models, and AWS exclusivity. [00:39:49] Breakdown of G42, MBZUAI, and other customer relationships. [00:42:55] Chris explains why the long-term revenue opportunity makes investors uncomfortable. [00:45:38] Discussion on customer warrants and partnerships with OpenAI and AWS. [00:49:25] Speculation around potential relationships with Meta and Google. [00:50:16] Gross margin expectations, scalability, and long-term profitability. [00:52:43] Doug Garber summarizes execution risks and the AI infrastructure landscape. [00:55:19] Chris shares his long-term outlook on Cerebras and position sizing. [00:59:16] Final thoughts on AI enthusiasm, IPO risks, and investing discipline. Links: Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Chris Murphy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrismurphyhq Powered by AlphaSense. Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/ Complimentary pre-built CBRS excel model — https://istari.insyncanalytics.com/pitchthepm/?model=IPO&template=CBRS Subscribe to our newsletter: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclosure: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

EP:31 Getting into T. Rowe Price - The Right Investment Process (Part 1)

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Priyal Maniar, Global Energy Investor at T. Rowe Price | Investment Analyst and Portfolio Manager of Natural Resources ETF (TURF) to discuss the path that led her to one of the most coveted firms on the street. Priyal walks through her journey from BlackRock to T.Rowe, how an early passion for equity research and mentorship shaped her investing lens. She talks about T. Rowe's collaboratiove Analyst & PM invstment culture and what it actually takes to stand out at one of the top  investmet houses in the world. This episode is all about Priyal's journey and investment process — how great stock pickers develop repeatable frameworks, build trust with colleagues and turn research into real capital allocation. Stay tuned for Part 2 — where we dive deep into the energy cycle and TURF’s big Oil Sands bet…  What you'll learn: * How Priyal built her foundation through value-focused investing * Inside T. Rowe’s intense interview process (30+ interviews, stock pitches) * The traits that matter: curiosity, deep work, and flexible conviction * How the $100B+ analyst-run fund works in practice * How analysts build a track record before managing capital * How ideas actually spread across a multi-trillion platform * Why collaboration starts before the pitch * The importance of field research and PM alignment * How to build mindshare in under-owned sectors like energy * Why process > being right once Timestamps 00:00 – Intro 01:00 – Priyal’s Background: India → Early Market Exposure 02:00 – Breaking In: BlackRock → Brandywine & Value Investing Roots 03:15 – Reaching Back Out to T. Rowe Price & Interview Process 04:30 – What T. Rowe Looks For: Curiosity, Deep Research, Fit 05:30 – Role Today: Coverage & Analyst Responsibilities 06:30 – Inside the $100B+ Analyst-Run Research Fund 07:30 – TURF ETF & Expanding Access 08:15 – How Ideas Get Shared Across the Platform 09:15 – Reports, Meetings & “Walking the Floor” Culture 10:15 – PM Pushback & Real-Time Collaboration 11:15 – Field Research & Building Buy-In Early 12:15 – Gaining Mindshare as an Energy Analyst 13:15 – Process > Calls: Building Trust Over Time Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea. https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ [https://pitchthepm.substack.com/] Presented by AlphaSense Free trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/ [https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/] Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y [https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y] Listen on Apple Podcasts:  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466 [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466] This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer [https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer]

EP030: Remove Macro From Your Stocks

In this episode, Doug Garber joins The Investment Memo to break down how hedge fund investors navigate macro volatility, manage risk inside low vol pod structures and stay focused on generating alpha.Doug shares how portfolio managers think during “risk-off” environments, why macro should not be your core thesis, and how strategies evolve inside multi-manager platforms.The conversation also dives into how he managed a portfolio as a PM, short selling dynamics, and the structural realities of hedge fund risk frameworks.🔑 TakeawaysRisk management over conviction during macro volatilityMacro matters—but shouldn’t be the core part of your thesisHigh short interest stocks work over time—but can be painful during unwindsThe best portfolios aim to neutralize what they can’t predict⏱️ Chapters[00:00] Intro[01:05] Career Path to Hedge Fund PM[04:39] Navigating Macro Regime Shifts[06:05] Pod Shop Dynamics & Talent Retention[07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs[07:15] Fundamental L/S Investing[12:33] War, Oil & Macro Uncertainty[15:00] Energy Outlook & Implications[18:52] Hedging & Risk Management📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimerThis episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.