What energy shocks mean for markets and investors

How AI is driving equity momentum and attractive alternatives

As equity markets continue to gain momentum following a March drawdown, host John Bryson welcomes Matt to help investors make sense of the market and economy, and how to navigate an uneasy rally. Matt shares his perspective on the drivers behind stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, portfolio concentration risks in AI, and attractive opportunities for diversification. Here’s a snippet of the conversation. 1 What’s driving stronger performance in U.S. equity earnings? Matt: The strength is largely driven by AI-led investment. Technology capex is accelerating rapidly, benefiting from both strong pricing power and high demand tied to data center buildouts. That demand is also lifting industrials, which are building the infrastructure, and utilities, which are supplying the power. At the same time, strong equity markets are supporting the financial sector, particularly wealth management, as higher asset values drive increased activity and revenues. Finally, corporate profit margins remain near historic highs. 2 How can investors diversify to reduce portfolio concentration in AI? Matt: We have to use asset allocation more than just style or manager selection. However, manager selection—active management—is one lever. Another is alternatives; infrastructure-related equities and long/short strategies can help reduce overall portfolio beta and provide diversification beyond traditional index exposure. Fixed income is also starting to look more compelling. In an environment where equities may appear stretched or concentrated, bonds provide a reasonable place to generate income while waiting for better entry points. 3 Where are you seeing other opportunities right now? Matt: Mortgage-backed securities and investment-grade corporates in the core to core-plus space. There’s a modest credit bias, but the emphasis remains on quality. In corporates, single-A-rated bonds are particularly attractive. We’re also being mindful of interest rate risk—staying away from the long end of the curve, where yields have risen, and volatility has increased.

Positioning portfolios for volatility with long/short investing

As investors look to adapt portfolios to a more complex and uneven equity market, host John Bryson is joined by Josh to discuss how global long/short equity strategies can support portfolios in volatile times. Josh shares his perspective on why volatility and dispersion can create attractive opportunities for active investors, and how long/short strategies may help manage downside risk while seeking market like returns. The conversation explores the role of active security selection and its suitability to the current environment as investors adapt to shifting market conditions. Here are some highlights from the conversation: 1 What role can global long/short strategies play in a portfolio? Josh: We think about a global long/short strategy as a return driver. We’re trying to generate market-like returns, or better. The benchmark is the MSCI World Index, and we're targeting returns of roughly 8%-12% over a full cycle. Over time, the strategy should generate returns but behave differently. And in years when the rest of a portfolio struggles, it should perform well. 2 Why does this strategy suit the current market environment? Josh: We’re in a longer-term inflation cycle that began during the pandemic, driven by government deficits and spending. From 2023 through 2025, inflation was settling, and we focused more on taking long positions. Coming into this year, valuations became richer, and short opportunities increased. We’re more aggressive on the short side now, particularly with emerging credit risks. On the long side, we like some tech companies tied to data center buildouts, memory companies, and metals and mining.

How to approach alternatives and private credit today

As investors assess both the opportunities and challenges in private credit, host John Bryson is joined by David T. Vincent, CFA, CAIA, Co-Head, Alternatives Intermediary Distribution at Manulife Investment Management, to discuss how the market has evolved and what investors should consider as they look beyond traditional asset classes. David shares his perspective on the growth of private credit and investor concerns around liquidity and concentration. The conversation also explores asset based finance and hard asset strategies, highlighting the questions investors can ask to better understand risk, structure, and portfolio fit. 1 What’s happening in private credit today? There’s growing recognition that many alternative strategies are concentrated in floating rate loans to private companies. This creates exposure to corporate credit and interest rates. With rates declining and uncertainty around inflation, recession risk, and consumer spending, investors are reassessing that exposure. What we’re seeing now is that advisors and investors are looking for additional strategies that complement private credit by offering similar return potential with different risk profiles. 2 How would you address concerns of a potential bubble in private credit? When people see the rapid growth in private credit assets, it raises the question of whether the space is in a bubble. What we’re really seeing is a shift in lending from banks to alternative lenders. While it can feel like sudden growth, it’s largely a shift in who provides capital. Private credit should grow alongside the economy, especially as more companies remain private longer. 3 What alternative strategies may investors be overlooking right now? The most interest right now is in hard asset strategies. These tend to benefit from inflation, supply chain disruptions, and tariffs. There is a concept often referred to as hard assets with low obsolescence, meaning long lived, tangible assets such as buildings or airplanes. These assets have intrinsic value. In a default, they can often be leased, sold, or repurposed.

What energy shocks mean for markets and investors

As markets navigate energy supply disruptions and mixed economic data, Matt and Emily join the podcast to provide a timely, broad market update. They share their perspectives on how oil supply shocks are affecting markets, how energy dynamics are influencing inflation and growth expectations, and where they see potential opportunities across equities, fixed income, and alternatives. 1 What’s driving the markets at this moment? Matt: We’re experiencing a historic oil supply shock. The Strait of Hormuz—which accounts for about 20% of the global oil supply—has been shut off. We’re seeing prices ratchet higher and energy supplies rationed globally. This has created an inflation shock across global markets, with hawkish comments from central banks globally leaning toward a higher-inflation environment. That caused bond yields to rise and hurt equities. While supply disruption remains, energy remains the biggest risk and a driver of volatility. 2 How do energy prices affect the broader economic outlook? Emily: Central banks globally have discussed tighter policy without downgrading growth expectations. The recent U.S. Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections showed slightly higher GDP forecasts and no increase in unemployment rate estimates. We think higher inflation does punish growth and, eventually, expect a slower-growth story. Currently, the U.S. economy is holding up, but cracks are forming in the labor market. We think, ultimately, there’s a lid on inflation due to weakening demand. 3 Where do you see opportunities in this environment? Matt: One of the sectors we like is non-U.S. industrials, supported by defense spending. If the dollar strengthens further, we prefer U.S. equities—particularly mid-cap and mid-cap value, which are relatively cheap and higher quality. Emily: We also like infrastructure, long short equity strategies, and multi alternative approaches. Infrastructure offers defensive characteristics and benefits from AI driven power demand.

The role of municipal bonds in tax-efficient portfolios

After a bumpy year with shifting supply dynamics and uneven performance, the muni market has regained its footing. In this episode, host John Bryson speaks with Adam for a discussion on what’s driving improved performance and the opportunities for investors. Adam breaks down how issuance trends, investor flows, and structural factors are shaping the market. He also shares why investors should consider munis and how active management can drive value in this environment. Here’s a quick look at the conversation: 1 What is driving the improved performance of municipal bonds? Adam: We started the year with a bumpy backdrop. Supply had been heavy for a couple of years as municipalities faced growing infrastructure needs, the replacement of older projects, and the rising cost of labor and materials. Early in the year, the supply overwhelmed demand, but as the year went on, flows came back into the market, and demand eventually outstripped supply. What we’re seeing now is a reversion to the mean, with lighter supply and money returning. It sets us up for a more balanced environment as the rest of the year plays out. 2. Why should investors consider municipal bonds in their portfolios? Adam: Munis work well for investors with taxable accounts or at higher tax brackets. Beyond that, they provide diversification and risk management as they tend to be less volatile than other fixed income instruments and act as a dampener in the portfolio. They also have one of the lowest correlations with the stock market, as they’re backed by more stable state and local revenues rather than corporate earnings. And there’s also the altruistic act of supporting your community infrastructure projects. 3. What differentiates your team’s approach to managing municipal bond portfolios? Adam: We’re looking for bonds that we believe are priced below their intrinsic value. Then, hopefully, as they move back toward their intrinsic value, we’ll sell them and move on to the next opportunity. We take an active approach—muni bonds are one of the asset classes where active management adds the most value because it’s an incredibly inefficient market.