Is Ontario Real Estate Finally Turning? Rents, Rates & Distressed Deals

Is Ontario Real Estate Finally Turning? Rents, Rates & Distressed Deals

Toronto Rents: Up 3 Months, Down 21—Plus InterRent Goes Private, Slate Distress, Ontario Multifamily Trades & Net-Zero Retrofit   The episode explains how national asking rents can be down 4.3% year over year for 21 straight months while still rising 0.2% month over month, highlighting Toronto’s narrowing annual decline to 1.9% and three straight monthly gains, with sharp submarket divergence and three-bedroom rents up 2.5% annually. It reviews Bank of Canada inflation-expectations data distorted by a May oil-price spike, and more current surveys showing easing expectations. The hosts cover Timbercreek acquiring Slate’s Calgary Life Plaza via credit bid after a $41.4M default, noting the same Slate fund’s Mississauga Dixie Outlet Mall receivership. InterRent REIT’s $13.55/unit take-private deal closes around July 9, removing a key public data source and underscoring CMHC insured-debt consent. Ontario’s June registry shows 64 multifamily deals ($322.4M), but the meaningful signal is mid-market trades around $1.9M, alongside a financing split between mid-to-high 3% insured-style money and higher bridge/private capital. The show also highlights Brampton’s Rose Towers enabled by HST removal and development-charge waivers, and Toronto’s Rick McCleary Towers net-zero retrofit using exterior prefabricated panels without displacing tenants, funded by CMHC and Natural Resources Canada.   00:00 Rents Look Contradictory 00:36 Toronto Bottoming Signals 03:56 Rates And Inflation Surveys 06:05 Calgary Credit Bid Distress 08:11 Free Tools Quick Plug 08:25 InterRent Goes Private 09:35 Ontario Registry Deal Flow 13:02 Brampton Rose Towers Supply 14:52 Toronto Net Zero Retrofit 17:12 Three Themes And Wrap 19:11 Disclosures And Disclaimer   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.   Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

The Rental Squeeze: Why Ontario Landlords Are Getting Hit From Every Direction

Ontario Rent Cap Drops to 1.9% for 2027: Flat Rates, Soft Turnover Rents, and a Condo-Led Correction   Addy Saeed and mortgage broker Ribhu Rampersad argue Ontario rent growth is being squeezed from three directions: interest rates staying flat, a lower 2027 rent increase guideline of 1.9% on most rent-controlled units, and a tightening buy side even as prices fall. They cite April GDP up 0.5% (May flash +0.1%) as reducing pressure for Bank of Canada cuts, with CIBC expecting no cuts this year and warning April strength was flattered by mining/oil and one-offs, while RBC and CIBC disagree on Q2 growth. CMHC’s midyear update shows rental softness concentrated in post-2020, high-end and near-campus product, with longer lease-ups and incentives of up to several months free rent, while older stabilized and family-sized units remain tight. RBC notes improved Toronto condo affordability and falling asking rents, and the hosts highlight a GTA “condo paradox” where condo sales rise but apartment HPI declines lead, making investor-owned condos motivated rental competition. They recommend underwriting to today’s rates and effective rents, and taking a defensive stance focused on stabilized older stock and lease-up risk.   00:00 Economy Up Rent Cap Down 00:30 Three Forces Squeezing Rents 00:53 GDP Surprise Rates Stay High 02:41 CMHC Two Speed Rental Market 04:50 Affordability Improves Rent Demand 06:27 Ontario 2027 Rent Guideline 08:07 Condo Sales Up Prices Down 11:06 Pulling Threads Final Playbook 12:15 Wrap Up Disclosures   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.   Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

The Subsidy Cliff: What Happens When the Incentives Run Out

Ontario Rentals: It’s Not Too Much Supply—It’s Too Expensive (Absorption Crash, Policy Risk, and What to Buy)   Addy Saeed reviews Ontario’s multifamily market using CMHC, Rentals.ca, OSFI, and Urbanation signals, arguing the issue isn’t “too much rental housing” but too much new supply priced above what renters can afford. CMHC absorption at completion fell from 89% (May 2025) to 64% (May 2026), with completed unabsorbed inventory up 54% to 12,829 units nationally, while CMHC flags Ontario methodology as under review. Rentals.ca data shows 42% of renters target under $1,500 versus a $2,029 average asking rent, and 70% cite affordability as the top challenge. He discusses OSFI’s stability buffer cut as capacity (not lower rates), rent-control policy risk (including Ontario’s post-2018 exemption), rising GTHA vacancy in post-2000 buildings (5.4%), major long-lag approvals (Vaughan’s 9,950 units), Brad Lamb’s subsidy-dependent pivot to purpose-built rentals, and student housing as a niche with visa-cap demand risk, concluding oversupply risk is concentrated in levered, premium, incentive-dependent new builds while older below-replacement-cost stock is more insulated.   00:00 Absorption Shock Intro 00:57 CMHC Absorption Data 03:00 Renters Affordability Gap 04:54 OSFI Buffer Cut 06:16 Rent Control Policy Risk 08:21 Fitzrovia Lease Up Reality 09:40 Vaughan Mega Approval Lag 11:05 Brad Lamb Subsidy Cliff 13:13 Student Housing Exception 15:11 How Much Is Too Much 18:05 Wrap Up And Disclosures   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.   Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Ontario's Slowest Growth Year — And the Landlords Still Winning

Why New Rentals Near Universities Are Sitting Empty + RBC on Ontario’s Fragile Rebound (Smart Real Estate)   Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad unpack a “vacancy paradox” in Ontario: CMHC data shows higher vacancy concentrated in post-2020 builds and student-adjacent units, even as student housing need remains acute, because today’s land, construction, and financing costs force rents beyond what many tenants can pay while older buildings bought below replacement cost stay full. They review RBC’s latest housing data showing a 5.5% national resale jump month over month led by Ontario at 8.8%, alongside continued year-over-year price declines and condo weakness in Kitchener-Waterloo, Toronto, and Niagara, with RBC calling the rebound fragile. RBC also forecasts Ontario 2026 growth at 0.4% and does not expect Bank of Canada hikes in 2026, pushing gradual hikes to 2027. They cover Guelph’s new tenant protection measures, RECO’s new brokerage financial filing regime, and institutional activity including Starlight’s 698-unit Mississauga rental proposal and Hazelview’s view that Canada remains undersupplied.   00:00 Vacancy Paradox Setup 00:59 Why New Student Housing Sits Empty 01:40 Investor Math on Affordability 03:07 RBC Resale Rebound Data 05:06 Ontario Growth and Rate Outlook 07:40 Guelph and RECO Regulations 09:25 Institutional Capital Moves 11:17 Wrap Up and Disclosures About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.     Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-ma...  Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com

Ontario's Rental Reset: Rates, Rents & the Road Back

CMHC vs Rentals.ca: The Rental Market Split, BoC Rate Hold, and Why 2027 Matters   Addy Saeed and mortgage agent Ribhu Rampersad connect three signals shaping Canadian real estate: CMHC’s mid-year rental update, the Rentals.ca National Rent Report, and a Bank of Canada rate hold at 2.25%. They argue the rental market is bifurcating—post-2020 new builds and areas near post-secondary institutions face higher vacancies, slow absorption and incentives, while older stabilized buildings and family-sized units remain tighter, with rent growth driven mainly by turnover resets. Rentals.ca shows national asking rents down 4.7% year-over-year (20 straight months), Ontario down 5%, Toronto down for 28 months, and sharp suburban declines (Richmond Hill -14.3%, Markham -12.9%, Scarborough -10.6%). They note 2026 rates are expected to stay on hold, but economists diverge on possible moderate 2027 hikes. RBC’s household wealth report shows real estate added to net worth for the first time in a year, but savings are falling and mortgage originations are at a two-year low, indicating fragile stabilization.   00:00 Market Signals Setup 01:08 Three Themes Framework 01:32 CMHC Rental Update 02:06 New vs Old Buildings 03:32 Rethinking 3% Vacancy 04:55 Turnover Rent Reset 07:20 Rentalsca Report 08:09 Ontario Suburb Slump 09:09 Asking vs Average Rents 11:52 Free LIM Community 12:09 BoC Rate Hold 13:41 2027 Economist Split 15:40 Mortgage Renewal Tailwind 17:06 RBC Wealth Update 19:14 Episode Themes Recap 20:38 Wrap Up And Disclosures   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.     Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-ma...  Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com